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Mets vs Pirates MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Expect Plenty of Runs in Pittsburgh (Monday, September 5)

Mets vs Pirates MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Expect Plenty of Runs in Pittsburgh (Monday, September 5) article feature image
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Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: Francisco Lindor (Mets)

  • The Pirates host the Mets for the opener of a three-game series on Monday.
  • Taijuan Walker takes the ball for the Mets, and Mitch Keller gets the start for the Pirates.
  • Tony Sartori breaks down the matchup and provides his best bet below.

Mets vs. Pirates Odds

Mets Odds -200
Pirates Odds +170
Over/Under 8.5 (-110/-110)
Time 12:35 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The NL Central‘s Pittsburgh Pirates host the NL East‘s New York Mets on Monday afternoon in the first matchup of a three-game series. This game is the first meeting between these two clubs this season.

Will the Mets take care of business, or can the Pirates grab a win as heavy home underdogs?

New York Mets: Is Regression Coming for Walker?

The New York Mets enter this series after two extremely disappointing losses to the lowly Washington Nationals. New York has been involved in some high-scoring games recently, a trend we expect to continue in this matchup.

Right-hander Taijuan Walker is slated to take the mound for New York and could be a good fade candidate. Through 23 starts this season, he is 10-3 with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP.

While those are strong surface-level numbers, Walker’s metrics suggest regression is looming. This year, he possesses a .319 xwOBA, a .254 xBA and a .407 xSLG.

That regression could be realized against Pittsburgh, a team Walker has struggled against in the past. Through three career starts against the Pirates, Walker is 0-1 with a 7.94 ERA and a 2.34 WHIP.

Following Walker is a fade-worthy bullpen. While all the attention focuses on closer Edwin Diaz and his trumpet entrance, people have become numb to the fact that the rest of this relief staff has struggled mightily.

Since August 1, the Mets’ relief pitching ranks 20th in the league in ERA, 22nd in WHIP, 24th in BA, 20th in SLG and 20th in wOBA. However, this pitching staff should get plenty of run support as New York is slated to go against right-hander Mitch Keller.

When facing right-handed pitching, the Mets rank third in the league in BA, fourth in SLG, third in OPS and third in wOBA since the beginning of August. Through 16 career plate appearances against Keller, this current New York roster boasts a .250 BA, .500 SLG and a .412 wOBA.

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Pittsburgh Pirates: Can Pitching Staff Stifle Mets?

Mitch Keller is slated to take the mound for Pittsburgh. Through 25 appearances this season, he is 4-10 with a 4.43 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP.

Like Walker, Keller’s metrics suggest more danger is imminent. This year, he possesses a .320 xwOBA, a .255 xBA and a .393 xSLG.

Following Keller is a poor bullpen. Since August 1, the Pirates’ relief pitching ranks 23rd in the league in ERA, 23rd in WHIP and 17th in FIP.

However, this pitching staff could get some decent run support as Pittsburgh is slated to go against right-hander Taijuan Walker. Through 21 career plate appearances against Walker, this current Pirates roster boasts a .314 xBA, a .410 xSLG and a .408 xwOBA.

Mets-Pirates Pick

We are getting a fairly generous number on this total because of how poor Pittsburgh’s lineup typically fares against right-handed pitching. However, the Pirates are running into a pitcher who has struggled mightily against them and is expected to see some regression.

On the other side, the Mets rake against right-handed pitching and are going against a fade-worthy pitcher in Mitch Keller. Additionally, both bullpens are poor.

Put all of these variables together and we have a game that should be high-scoring.

Pick: Mets/Pirates o8.5 (-110) | Play up to (-125)

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