The Boston Red Sox host the Milwaukee Brewers on April 7, 2026. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on BREW.
The Red Sox are favored by -158 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Brewers are +134 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Brewers vs Red Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Brewers vs Red Sox Prediction
- Brewers vs Red Sox Pick: Brewers Moneyline (Play at +140)
My Brewers vs Red Sox best bet is on Milwaukee to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Brewers vs Red Sox Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -176 | 7 -104o / -118u | +134 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +146 | 7 -104o / -118u | -158 |
- Brewers vs Red Sox spread: Brewers +1.5 (-176), Red Sox -1.5 (+146)
- Brewers vs Red Sox over/under: 7 (-104o/-118u)
- Brewers vs Red Sox moneyline: Brewers +134, Red Sox -158
Brewers vs Red Sox Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) | Stat | LHP Garrett Crochet (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | W-L | 1-1 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 2.45/3.15 | ERA /xERA | 3.27/4.36 |
| 3.90/2.80 | FIP / xFIP | 2.72/2.67 |
| 1.00 | WHIP | 1.00 |
| 28.9% | K-BB% | 27.7% |
| 47.6% | GB% | 35.7% |
| 113 | Stuff+ | 109 |
| 92 | Location+ | 98 |
Brewers vs Red Sox Preview
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview
With Freddy Peralta being traded and Brandon Woodruff having barely pitched in three years, young Jacob Misiorowski has already become the de facto Ace of this Milwaukee staff, while still developing. If his first two outings are any indication, it seems to be a role he relishes.
The young phenom has struck out 18 of 45 batters with a 19.0 SwStr%. He has also walked five, which keeps his walk rate (11.1%) in line with last season (11.4%), but that’s the only real concern.
If he’s going to retain a 20+ K-BB% even with a double digit walk rate, it’s really more about how many pitches it forces him to throw before he can push deep into games than the guys he’s putting on base and stranding.
Even the 52.4 HardHit% isn’t much of a problem when it’s only 11 batted balls. It’s unlikely to be a number he sustains anyway.
Over 77 major league innings, the Miz has established mid-three estimator, but just a 3.16 xERA, In a bit of misfortune, 10 of his 14 barrels allowed have left the park (3.93 FIP), a number I’d expect to regress, considering the much lower xERA.
Misiorowski throws his fastball more than half the time (66.3% this season) and his slider a bit less than a quarter of the time. He’ll throw his curveball just as much as his slider to LHBs, along with a changeup he’ll flash to opposite handed batters around 10% of the time.
The latter is the only one of his pitches not above a 55 Pitching Bot overall grade, while all of his offerings exceed an average 100 Pitching+ mark. Interestingly, only his fastball grades above average by either system in his two 2026 starts so far, resulting in his 2.84 Bot ERA increasing to 3.54 and his 119 Pitching+ dropping to 104.
This is almost ALL about command/location, as the pitches still retain their strong pure stuff scores.
After a pair of favorable matchups (TBR, CWS) in his pitcher friendly home park (94 Park Run Factor roof closed via Statcast), he’ll have a more difficult task facing a tougher offense in a dangerous park, but it’s not all bad news.
While the standard Boston lineup against RHP this year has averaged a 109 wRC+ against pitchers from that side since last year, they’ve struggled towards just an 88 wRC+ overall in 2026.
In addition, Caleb Durbin and Ceddanne Rafaela, who generally bat in the bottom third of the lineup are the only two below a 23 K% vs RHP since 2025.
Misiorowski only has two individual pitch matchup concerns. Roman Anthony has already established himself as a fastball crusher (2.56 wFA/C) and Wilyer Abreu punishes curves.
Boston is a great base running team with Jarren Durran (+7 Base Running Runs) and, surprise, Trevor Story (+7) top tier runners last season. (For reference, Corbin Carroll was the only player to reach a double digit BRR.)
The Misiorowski/Contreras combo has proven to be a bit above average at controlling the running game though, and most of Duran’s value comes from taking extra-bases, rather than stealing them.
Fangraphs Depth Charts project the Milwaukee bullpen second best in the league (3.76 ERA, .387 FIP). They had been heavily worked recently, forcing Pat Murphy to rest his highest leverage guys in a close game on Monday night.
The Brewers also have a very strong defense, led by Joey Ortiz’s shortstop play (+10 Fielding Run Value) and Sal Frelick’s work in the outfield (+7).
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview
The thing about writing about the best pitchers in the league is that there isn’t as much to say because everyone knows how great they are. Garrett Crochet not only has great stuff (62 Bot Stuff, 117 Stuff+), but great command (3.19 Bot ERA, 114 Pitching+ since last year).
If we’re being honest, the pitch modeling has been merely average in his two starts this year, but he’s pitched in a pair of tough parks (Cincinnati & Houston), allowing a three run homer late in his last start to Carlos Correa, who’s made a living punishing southpaw mistakes.
Yet, Crochet’s 27.7 K-BB% is two points ahead of last year, while he doesn’t have a single non-pitch modeling estimator reaching even three since the start of the 2025 season.
Like his opponent, Crochet threw his four-seamer more than 50% of the time each of his four seasons in Chicago, but has dropped to 35.6% since coming to Boston, following the team philosophy that has its pitchers favoring sinkers over four-seamers.
Crochet has picked up the slack by throwing more cutters (28%) and sinkers (16.1%) with some sweepers mixed in (15.9%), which he’ll throw just as often to RHBs as LHBs.
All four pitches grade from above average to elite on either pitch modeling scale. If he avoids throwing four-seamers to Gary Sanchez and cutters to Brice Turang and Brandon Lockridge, Crochet matches up very strongly against the rest of the lineup according to pitch run values.
Meanwhile, LHBs have just a .211 wOBA against him since last season and the Brewers will generally keep a few of them in there for their defense against same-handed pitching.
The Brewers had a 110 Road wRC+ and 107 vs LHP last year, though the projected lineup averages just 99 against southpaws since last season. Milwaukee is off to a hot start overall with the third best offense in the entire league (134 wRC+) in 2026.
They’re also a great base running team up and down the lineup, slightly behind the Red Sox overall. While Crochet does not hold runners well at all (-7 Net Bases Prevented), Carlos Narvaez makes up for that by being the second best throwing catcher in the league (+6 Throwing Fielding Run Value, +9 CS Above Avg), behind Luis Torrens.
That said, if Wong is behind the plate for some reason, the Brewers may be able to run as well, provided they’re able to reach base against Crochet.
The Red Sox have an even better defense than the Brewers, led by Rafaela (+22 FRV, Narvaez +12 and Abreu +8) with Story (-8) their only below average defensive regular.
The Boston bullpen projects just barely behind the Brewers via Fangraphs (3.97 ERA, 3.90 FIP). Like Miwaukee, they somehow avoided a recently heavily used top of their pen, despite Bello getting knocked out early on Monday. Chapman and Slaten haven’t pitched in two days now.
Brewers vs Red Sox Picks
Fenway is the third most positive run environment in MLB (108 PRF), but temperatures that may not reach much above 40 degrees on Tuesday night (forecast as of late Monday) could temper offensive production substantially, though pitchers may also struggle with grips in temperatures this cold.
Umpire John Tumpane is somewhat neutral and shouldn’t have much of an effect on the outcome. He leans only slightly pitcher friendly.
I currently have Crochet a bit less than two-thirds of a run better than Misiorowski, but the latter with enough volatility that his ceiling could compare to the upper ranges of a Crochet outing in all areas except workload.
Additional edges (offense, bullpen, defense and base running) are small in either direction.
I’m very much aligned with the market total of seven under the currently expected conditions, though that in itself adds to the variance.
I also have both pitchers close to seven props/pitching" target="_blank" rel="noopener">strikeouts, Misiorowski just slightly higher against a more strikeout prone lineup, which would give me slight lean on the under in Crochet’s direction (7.5 +106 on DraftKings) should that line move in the right direction.
Other than Roman Anthony potentially doing some damage to a misplaced fastball, weather is enough of a deterrent to offensive player props.
The main question becomes whether Misiorowski can hit his ceiling often enough to match Crochet and get the ball into the hands of his elite relievers where neither team should have much of an edge late in a close game. There’s also the very minor chance that Crochet is not at his best and makes a big mistake, as he did just last time out.
The market, specifically FanDuel (+134), is close to edging into that zone of probability in my opinion, but I wouldn’t consider it actionable without exceeding +140 as circumstances currently stand. However, it’s close enough that minor line movement or a change to projected lineups could tip it either way.
Pick: Strong Lean Brewers (Play at +140)
