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The San Diego Padres host the Milwaukee Brewers on October 6, 2026. First pitch from Petco Park is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on Fox Sports 1.
The Padres are favored by -134 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Brewers are +116 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Brewers vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Brewers vs Padres Prediction
- Brewers vs Padres Pick: Padres ML (-134)
My Brewers vs Padres best bet is on San Diego to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page, and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Brewers vs Padres Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -196 | 7.5 +110o / -134u | +116 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +162 | 7.5 110o / -134u | -134 |
- Brewers vs Padres moneyline: Brewers +116, Padres -134
- Brewers vs Padres over/under: 7.5 (+110o / -134u)
- Brewers vs Padres spread: Brewers +1.5 (-196), Padres -1.5 (+162)
Brewers vs Padres Probable Pitchers
| Dustin May (RHP, MIL) | Stat | Nick Pivetta (RHP, SD) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-9 | W-L | 3-2 |
| 2.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.3 |
| 4.70 / 4.43 | ERA / xERA | 2.86 / 3.18 |
| 3.63 / 3.97 | FIP / xFIP | 2.21 / 3.46 |
| 15.1 | K-BB% | 24.3 |
| 41.8 | GB% | 30.7 |
| .318 | BABIP | .287 |
| 102 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 103 | Location+ | 103 |
Brewers vs Padres MLB Betting Preview
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview
Right-hander Dustin May takes the mound for the Brewers, and he should serve as a good fade candidate. Through 31 starts this season, May is 7-9 with a 4.70 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally poor. This year, May ranks in the 31st percentile in xERA, 35th percentile in xBA, 14th percentile in average exit velocity, and seventh percentile in hard-hit rate.
After a difficult campaign, the Brewers began keeping May on a short leash in his September outings, a trend that is likely to continue Tuesday. That said, the damage may already be done by the time they pull him.
In 167 combined plate appearances against May, the current San Diego roster owns a .432 xSLG and a .328 xwOBA.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
Meanwhile, the Padres turn to right-hander Nick Pivetta. It's been a limited sample size, but Pivetta has been fantastic in 2026.
Through eight starts, the right-hander is 3-2 with a 2.86 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP. His underlying metrics suggest that this success is likely to continue.
If he qualified, Pivetta would rank in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, strikeout rate, and walk rate. While the sample size is small, his larger body of work last season suggests he can continue producing at this level.
Across 31 starts last year, Pivetta posted a 13-5 record, a 2.87 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP.
Brewers vs Padres Pick, Betting Analysis
The Padres have their backs against the wall, and they're unlikely to go away quietly. First, the starting pitching edge clearly goes to Pivetta.
Second, San Diego returns home for the first time in this series. The Padres have been dominant at Petco Park, posting a 51-30 record.
By comparison, they went 40-41 on the road during the regular season. It's also worth noting that San Diego won each of its two home games in its sweep of the Cubs in the Wild Card round.
Pick: Padres ML (-134)
