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The Tampa Bay Rays host the New York Yankees on October 5, 2026. First pitch from Tropicana Field is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on truTV.
The Yankees are favored by -131 on the moneyline and by +142 on the run line. The Rays are +109 on the moneyline and -172 on the run line. The total is set at 6.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Yankees vs Rays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Yankees vs Rays Prediction
- Yankees vs Rays Pick: Under 6.5 (49 Cents, Polymarket) | Liam Hicks 1+ Hit (-137, DraftKings)
My Yankees vs Rays top trade is on the under and my best bet is for Liam Hicks to record a hit. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Yankees vs Rays Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +142 | 6.5 -113o / -107u | -131 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -172 | 6.5 -113o / -107u | +109 |
- Yankees vs Rays moneyline: Yankees -131, Rays +109
- Yankees vs Rays over/under: 6.5 (-113o / -107u)
- Yankees vs Rays spread: Yankees -1.5 (+142), Rays +1.5 (-172)
Yankees vs Rays Probable Pitchers (Regular Season Stats)
| Cam Schlittler (RHP, NYY) | Stat | Freddy Peralta (RHP, TB) |
|---|---|---|
| 14-6 | W-L | 10-11 |
| 6.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.9 |
| 1.95 / 2.85 | ERA / xERA | 4.42 / 3.83 |
| 2.56 / 2.86 | FIP / xFIP | 4.28 / 4.37 |
| 25.0% | K-BB% | 12.7% |
| 43.2% | GB% | 39.4% |
| .251 | BABIP | .288 |
| 113 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 102 | Location+ | 106 |
Yankees vs Rays MLB Betting Preview
New York Yankees Betting Preview
Cam Schlittler is back on the bump for the Yankees as they try to even the series before heading back home for two games. You might remember what Schlittler did in the postseason opener.
- 6.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 10 SO, 1 BB
It's full send time. Schlittler threw 117 pitches and recorded 24 whiffs. He got to double-digit whiffs in the blink of an eye and mostly maintained his stuff through the highest pitch count of his career. It was magnificent stuff, and he's on normal rest as he comes in to face the Rays.
What we saw in that first start was reliance on the four-seam fastball. Schlittler threw a bunch of four-seamers in the regular season, too, but he accentuated it last time.
- 65 four-seamers
- 32 curveballs
- 11 sinkers
- 9 cutters
Fewer cutters for the big man, but it worked out beautifully. Let's check some Rays stats from the regular season against these pitch types:
- vs. RHP four-seamers: .324 xwOBA, 80.7% Contact%, .259 AVG, .423 SLG
- vs. RHP cutters: .320 xwOBA, 82.5% Contact%, .292 AVG, .406 SLG
More contact against cutters, more base hits, but a bit less power. This is a series between division foes. It will be the fourth time Schlittler has thrown against the Rays this season. Those results:
- 4/12: 5 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 8 SO, 1 BB
- 7/6: 8 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 8 SO, 0 BB
- 9/24: 3 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 5 SO, 2 BB
The Yankees were easing off Schlittler a bit in the final week of the regular season, but the Rays did make him throw a bunch of pitches early in that one to make the decision pretty easy to remove after three innings. But what we saw from Schlittler against Tampa was still elite strikeout rates (32.3%) with no problems with the walks (4.6% BB%).
Maybe there's some reason to pause given the workload as 117 pitches is a ton, and that was just six days ago now. And that comes after a career high in innings.
This will be the eighth different month this year where he's taken the mound in a regular season MLB game. That's a lot to put on a guy.
We did see Schlittler's velocity trail off late in that game. His four-seam fastball velocity by inning last week:
- 1st: 99.6
- 2nd: 99.1
- 3rd: 99.1
- 4th: 98.6
- 5th: 97.8
- 6th: 97.9
- 7th: 97.7
So he was under 98mph on the four-seamer beginning in the fifth inning, and he did labor a bit late. It looked like the Red Sox were going to break through, but Schlittler got the job done.
The Yankees should be considering this pretty much a "must-win". Nobody wants to be down 0-2 in a five-game series, and a loss tonight would guarantee they either a) lose the series or b) have to face Drew Rasmussen again.
Schlittler's strikeout lines via DraftKings:
- Over 6.5: -141
- Over 7.5: +138
- Over 8.5: +267
He cleared that over 7.5 in two of three starts (and never really had a chance in the third because his pitch count was going to be limited) against the Rays, and if he's pitching well tonight, he's going to clear 100 pitches without any trouble. We'll typically see quick moves to the bullpen in the postseason, but not when a team has their ace and best pitcher on the hill.
Kalshi and Polymarket both put Schlittler's chances at 8+ strikeouts at 55%.
The Rays aren't a team that wins with the homer. Their regular season strikeout rate was below 19%, one of the best marks in the league and one of the better ones you'll ever see.
That should be the approach tonight. Try to get the pitch count up, and try to get some balls in play and hope for the best. But that was probably their approach in the regular season, too, and it didn't matter as they struck out 16 times in those first two games when Schlittler was a full go.
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview
The Rays will send Freddy Peralta to the hill for game two as they try to put the clamps on this series. Peralta finished the year extremely well for them. It was not a good start to his Rays career.
First four starts: 7.17 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 18% K%, 6.7% BB%, 2.1 HR/9
But he got it all going after that.
Last six starts: 0.79 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 21% K%, 7% BB%, 0.26 HR/9
I believe we saw a tweak to his heater for that second split. His Stuff+ on the pitch was around 96-97 in the first four starts, and he finished the year by going above 104 in four of his last five starts on that fastball. The Rays like to tinker, and they pushed the right buttons once again with their trade deadline acquisition.
Tampa loves some changeups, and they got the most out of Peralta's offspeed. That change posted a .203 xwOBA with the Rays.
The other advantage Rays pitchers have is pitching in Tropicana Field. This park has always elevated pitchers, with the low altitude working in pitchers' favor. You'll see higher Stuff+ grades for the Rays when they're at home. Peralta went for a 23.5% K% in Tropicana with a 14.4% SwStr% and elite 4.7% BB%.
Peralta has been trending up for a month or so now, and this should be considered a really nice matchup for him against the beaten-down Yankees lineup that still has no Aaron Judge.
However. Peralta's K% has been mediocre all season long. He cleared 6.5 strikeouts just once in his time with the Rays. He was helped a ton by a .200 BABIP and 5% HR/FB over those last six starts when he was pitching so well.
If the BABIP doesn't go his way tonight and he finds himself in some trouble in the 4th or 5th inning, they're going to activate that bullpen, which is fully rested after not having to be used much at all in game one and with getting the off day yesterday.
My projection on Peralta is just 4.7 strikeouts. Even if he logs six innings, the strikeout total isn't going to be gaudy given what we've seen from him all year.
Yankees vs Rays Pick, Betting Analysis
The Yankees have hit four homers this postseason, two of which have come from Ben Rice. They're just not a very good lineup. If the Rays can work around Rice, they should have success on the mound. Rice hit 17 of his 41 homers against four-seamers this year.
He's one of the best high-velo hitters in the league. He's not going to see that velocity tonight. Against changeups, he held his own with a .478 SLG, but hit just four homers and made a lot less contact with a 72% contact rate. I think you'll see Peralta throw a bunch of changeups to Rice, and not worry too much if he loses him for a walk or two.
Neither team profiles well in these matchups with their respective SPs. My advanced "Matchups Model" puts the Yankees at a .331 xwOBA against Peralta (slightly above league average) and the Rays at a .312 mark against Schlittler.
I'm worried enough about Schlittler's workload to not go crazy on the Yankees as a road favorite. I think this is a very low-scoring game with the bullpen advantage and in the Rays' favor. Postseason scoring is always lower than regular season as teams let their pitchers go full out and they use their bullpens in the most advantageous way possible since they aren't concerned with what's happening tomorrow, especially not in the middle of a five-game set.
I don't want to be overly simplistic with my pick. There are two ways we can attack this — one on the total, and one on a player prop.
I think we have an advantage betting unders right now. These books and prediction markets just aren't going to drop a 5.5 O/U. With Schlittler being Schlittler and Peralta in a groove at home against a weak lineup, I'm riding the under in this game. Go shopping, find your best line. Right now, the best line on under 6.5 resides on Polymarket (or FanDuel if you're not into prediction markets yet, which you should be!)
Pick: Under 6.5 (49 Cents on Polymarket)
My best hitter bet is Liam Hicks. Even against elite pitching this year, he's posted a 5.5% SwStr%. That's a whole bunch of contact. I like Hicks for a hit tonight.
Pick: Liam Hicks 1+ Hit (-137 on DraftKings)
