The Seattle Mariners host the Milwaukee Brewers on July 21, 2025. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FDSWI.
The Brewers enter this series riding a 10-game winning streak — including an impressive sweep over the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium — and are now tied with the Chicago Cubs atop the NL Central.
Despite the Brewers' fantastic recent play, they're underdogs in the first game of the series with Brandon Woodruff (2.61 ERA, 10 1/3 IP) set to take on George Kirby (4.50 ERA, 54 IP).
Find my MLB betting preview and Brewers vs Mariners prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Brewers vs Mariners Prediction
- Brewers vs Mariners picks: Brandon Woodruff Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-145, DraftKings | Play to -155)
My Brewers vs Mariners best bet is under 6.5 strikeouts for Brandon Woodruff tonight. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Brewers vs Mariners Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +176 | 7 -106o / -114u | +101 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -218 | 7 -106o / -114u | -123 |
Brewers vs Mariners Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Brandon Woodruff (MIL) | Stat | RHP George Kirby (SEA) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | W-L | 4-4 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.7 |
| 2.61 / 2.21 | ERA / xERA | 4.50 / 3.77 |
| 3.38 / 0.62 | FIP / xFIP | 3.78 / 3.31 |
| 0.68 | WHIP | 1.15 |
| 47.4 | K-BB% | 19.8 |
| 35.0 | GB% | 43.0 |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 118 | Location+ | 114 |
Nick Martin’s Brewers vs Mariners Preview
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview: Woodruff and Company Are Thriving
According to FanGraphs, the Brewers had a 55.4% chance of making the postseason prior to their 10-game winning streak, a number that's now jumped all the way up to 91.6%.
Part of the reason the boost to their odds has been so gigantic is that six of the 10 wins have come over the Dodgers, making the winning streak that much more unlikely in the FanGraphs model.
Milwaukee's offense has been in strong form over the last month, with a wRC+ of 118 and an OPS of .771. The Brewers have struck out only 17.1% of the time in that span, but they do hold the second-highest soft contact rate in the league and the league's seventh-highest BABIP.
Despite Woodruff having made only two starts this season, the Brewers' starting rotation has still pitched to the sixth-lowest ERA in baseball this season.
Woodruff had a 2.28 ERA across 67 innings of work in 2023 before being struck by a line drive to his throwing arm and ultimately receiving three separate surgeries.
He's returned from his lengthy layoff in excellent form, pitching to an ERA of 2.61 and an xERA of 2.21. He holds a 47.4% strikeout rate in those two matchups, which have come against the Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins.
Woodruff holds a Stuff+ rating of 97 and a Pitching+ rating of 111 in those two outings, compared to marks of 108 and 114 in the 2023 season. He's thrown first-pitch strikes 78.9% of the time and generated a swinging strike rate of 12.6%.
In his career, Woodruff has struck out 10.50 batters per nine, and in 2023, he struck out 9.94 batters per nine.
Milwaukee's starters combined to work 17 innings over the weekend following the All-Star break, and the bullpen is in good shape, as only Abner Uribe may be unavailable to work in this matchup.
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview: Plate Discipline and an Improved Kirby
The Mariners' offense has remained in good form recently and will provide a tough matchup for Woodruff in this game.
They hold the third-best wRC+ in the league versus right-handed pitching over the last month of play and have struck out 22.2% of the time, holding the seventh-highest weighted on-base average in the MLB.
Seattle's plate discipline has improved considerably compared to last season, which has contributed significantly to the overall improvement in its offensive numbers. It currently ranks fifth in wRC+ and sixth in weighted on-base average this season.
It holds the 13th-highest BB/K ratio after ranking 18th last year and striking out at the second-highest rate in baseball.
The Mariners' out-of-zone swing and miss rate is down 3.4% compared to last season, which is the second greatest improvement in the MLB, while their whiff rate is also down 1.3%.
After a late start to the season due to injury, George Kirby has begun to perform at the high level expected of him based on his excellent work over the last three seasons.
After a pair of ugly outings to start the campaign, he's pitched to a 3.18 ERA and 3.08 xFIP over his last eight starts. He holds a Pitching+ rating of 110 in those outings and a 21.7% strikeout minus walk-rate.
Brewers vs Mariners Prediction, Betting Analysis
This looks like a good spot to fade Woodruff's high strikeout prop of 6.5, and even at -145, there looks to be strong value in doing so.
His stuff has still graded out well below his career average in those two appearances, and his strikeout rate will likely regress closer to his career average moving forward.
Due to their combination of improved plate discipline and strong productivity versus righties, the Mariners aren't a good matchup to rack up strikeouts, and Woodruff could have a tougher time racking up strikeouts than he did in his first two appearances of the season.
At -155 or better, I see value backing Woodruff to record fewer than seven strikeouts in this matchup.
Pick: Brandon Woodruff Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-145, DraftKings)
Moneyline
Backing the Brewers to continue their winning streak as underdogs may appear tempting, but Kirby still appears to be a far better-than-average starter, and as a result, the prices on sides in this game look fair to me.
Run Line (Spread)
I don't see value backing either team to cover the run line.
Over/Under
A total of 6.5 looks fair given the pitching matchup at baseball's most pitcher-friendly ballpark.
