The Miami Marlins host the Baltimore Orioles on May 5, 2026. First pitch from loanDepot park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on MASN.
The Marlins are favored by -122 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Orioles are +104 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Orioles vs Marlins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Orioles vs Marlins Prediction
- Sandy Alcantara Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-115)
- Marlins F5 Moneyline (-138)
Parlay Odds: +222
Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Orioles vs Marlins Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +104 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +168 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -122 |
- Orioles vs Marlins moneyline: Orioles +104, Marlins -122
- Orioles vs Marlins over/under: 8.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Orioles vs Marlins spread: Marlins -1.5 (+168), Orioles +1.5 (-205)
Orioles vs Marlins Probable Pitchers
| RHP Chris Bassitt (BAL) | Stat | RHP Sandy Alcantara (MIA) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | W-L | 3-2 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 5.46/5.16 | ERA / xERA | 3.04/3.18 |
| 5.14/5.32 | FIP / xFIP | 3.94/4.44 |
| 2.2% | K-BB% | 8.3% |
| 46.5% | GB% | 47.2% |
| .357 | BABIP | .254 |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 99 | Location+ | 100 |
Orioles vs Marlins Pick, Parlay
Story: Back Sandy to Stay Hot
Miami Marlins Prop Pick: Sandy Alcantara Under 2.5 Earned Runs
After missing a year-and-a-half of action upon recovering from Tommy-John surgery at the end of 2024, Sandy has returned with a vengeance – looking like his former self having recorded a 3.04 ERA thus far over his first seven outings of the season.
The Marlins’ ace was unbelievably dominant over his first two starts in 2026 having allowed just two earned runs (ER) over his first 18 frames.
The former- Cy Young award winner got rocked by a pesky Tigers lineup in his third outing – having surrendered seven runs which has surely skewed Alcantara's efficiency on the mound thus far.
While Miami’s two-time All-Star has shown some susceptibility to heavy-contact lineups with slightly less command of his four-seam fastball, his 2026 baseline has been largely impressive – ranking inside the top-40 in baseball in both ERA and WHIP.
Despite his post-surgery command issues, Alcantara faces an Orioles’ lineup on Tuesday night that he has mostly dominated over the course of his career in the Big Leagues.
In 62 career plate appearances versus Sandy, the Orioles’ have collectively recorded just nine hits with the Marlins’ ace boasting an extremely impressive .145 AVG to opposing batters.
Aside from Baltimore slugger Pete Alonso who has six hits in 40 career at-bats (AB) versus the Marlins’ righty, the Orioles lack a single other hitter in its lineup who has recorded multiple hits versus the former Cy Young Award Winner.
Though the Marlins’ 30-year-old has shown some vulnerability at times this season, Sandy has been unbelievably impressive for the most part – and I feel good backing him to go under his 2.5 Earned Runs (ER) total for the first leg of Tuesday night’s SGP.
Miami Marlins Moneyline Pick: Marlins F5 Moneyline
While I have a ton of confidence in the Marlins’ SP ahead of Tuesday night’s National League– showdown, I have far more concern for Orioles’ right-hander Chris Bassitt who is off to a dreadful first season in Baltimore.
The longtime-Blue Jay has recorded a concerning 5.46 ERA over his first six starts in 2026, having allowed 17 ER across 28 frames this season.
Bassitt has had quite an impressive run over his last several years in the Big Leagues with the Orioles’ 37-year old having posted a sub-4 ERA in nine of his 11 seasons in the MLB.
That said, Baltimore’s right-hander is at the back-end of his career and has shown some concerning signs of regression in his first season with the Orioles.
Though the Marlins’ lineup has been far from impressive in recent years, they have shown some vast signs of improvement in 2026 and have boasted exceptional contact-rates frequently resulting in many hitters on the base paths.
In 2026, Bassitt has shown a significant loss of command, a reduced strikeout-rate, and a short leash having shown some difficulty lasting later into ball games. The Orioles’ righty is producing a career-low K-rate, to go along with a career-high walk rate.
For a Miami lineup featuring several speedsters who are elite on the base paths, I have sizable concern about Bassitt’s ability to navigate through a Marlin lineup that has shown exceptional heavy-contact prowess in 2026.
Bassitt ranks a miserable 146th of 147 starting-pitchers (SP) in strikeout percentage (K%), and also ranks amongst the worst in walks-allowed.
Tuesday night’s pitching-matchup features two starters heading in completely opposite directions thus far in 2026, and I think Miami will have a massive edge on the mound.
For the second-leg of our SGP ahead of Tuesday night’s contest in Miami, I will be looking to back the Marlins on the first-five (F5) moneyline – fully expecting Sandy to continue his dominance while Bassitt should continue to spiral posting career-worst metrics this season.
Orioles vs Marlins Pick, Betting Analysis
- Sandy Alcantara Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-115)
- Marlins F5 Moneyline (-138)
Parlay Odds: +222
