We’re going to be trying something different at Action Network this season.
Minor League baseball is an inefficient market. I’ve been betting on Triple-A ball since 2021, and the market has become widely available enough to where I was able to provide picks to my subscribers last season — I went a documented 112-81-8 (58%) for a 51.7-unit profit.
You can still get most of my Triple-A picks over at WagerTalk, but I’m going to start publishing an Minor League baseball column here at Action Network on Tuesdays and Fridays, previewing the week and weekend ahead while providing some actionable insights.
Minor League Baseball Best Bets
Lehigh Valley IronPigs @ Rochester Red Wings
Friday, 6:45 PM ET
I’ve decided to place a far bigger emphasis on hitting, as the pitching across the board in Triple-A isn’t very good right now, but I’m going to massage that a little bit to justify targeting Rochester this weekend.
Rochester has a lineup that should be hitting much better than it is, and yet, the Red Wings are still 22-20.
Rochester is also one of the few teams this weekend with starting pitchers worth backing. Riley Cornelio and Chandler Champlain are quality guys who can work deep into games.
Coming into Friday, Yohandy Morales is the only one in the Rochester lineup that’s cracked my Triple-A Top 50 (which I update daily). The reason that’s shocking to me is that if I had five choices as to which Rochester hitters would be in the mix, none of them would be him.
Honestly, I would pick Harry Ford, Dylan Crews, Andres Chaparro, Abi Oritz, Christian Franklin, or Robert Hassell III before him. I just named seven Rochester hitters that all have the upside of being on a current Top-50 list at the Triple-A level, yet none of them are at the moment.
Rochester scored 13 in a game on Wednesday and has shown flashes. If the Rochester bats get hot, this team is going to win a whole bunch of games.
Meanwhile, I have the Lehigh Valley rated as one of the Triple-A’s worst teams, so we would still have “outs” that Cornelio or Champlain might shove in a lower-scoring affair.
Pick: Rochester Red Wings ML
Toledo Mud Hens @ Omaha Storm Chasers
Friday, 8:05 PM ET
Let’s stick with the theme of lineups that should be producing more than they have to this point.
Toledo has one of the best young hitters at the Triple-A level in Max Clark, who is extremely streaky and due for a decent run. Max Anderson, Ben Malgeri, and Corey Julks have all been solid, while Jace Jung has been too good at this level for too long not to get it going at some point.
Coming into the season, I thought Toledo would have one of the more formidable lineups in the International League, and even with some ups and downs, the Mud Hens have still managed to play .500 ball so far this season.
Similar to Rochester, if Toledo starts to hit in bunches, I think the Mud Hens could string some wins together. If they hit this weekend, they will have the upper hand in Omaha.
In typical AJ Hinch fashion, the Tigers are accumulating long relievers, and a number of them are at Toledo right now. Toledo is shaping up to have one of the better bullpens in the league, with guys like Woo-Suk Go, Carlos Pena, and Drew Sommers having solid seasons to this point. Beau Brieske will be with the team this weekend on a rehab assignment and instantly becomes the best reliever on the staff.
Toledo doesn’t have great starting pitching, but (again, in AJ Hinch fashion) this staff is mostly made up of guys who go two or three innings. I think Toledo’s pitching sets up to mix and match its way to a nice edge in that department over the weekend.
Toledo is the clearly better team, but because Omaha is at home and Toledo doesn’t have big-time name recognition in the starting pitching department, we should get some reasonable prices on the Hens.
Pick: Toledo Mud Hens ML
Trigger's Top Triple-A Plays for Friday
- Rochester Red Wings ML (vs. Lehigh Valley, 6:45 PM ET)
- Toledo Mud Hens ML (@ Omaha, 8:05 PM ET)
To keep up with any Minor League baseball bets I make, be sure to follow me in the Action Network App.
How To Bet on Triple-A
The first thing you need to understand about exploiting the Triple-A market is that it’s still a developmental league.
The players range from MLB-ready prospects to 30-plus-year-old journeymen trying to make it back to the show. You also have a handful of guys who likely top out at Triple-A but are good for organizational depth.
It’s also worth mentioning that 14 players on the Triple-A roster are also on the MLB 40-man roster, and these guys are constantly moving up and down from the big leagues.
All this makes each roster dynamic and volatile.
Bookmakers track the big names (e.g., Konnor Griffin) but can’t keep up with all the roster moves on a day-to-day basis. They also struggle to track the “developmental” aspect of everyone needing to play.
Lineups will look different day to day, and that’s primarily where I find my edge. This edge will become more pronounced as the season progresses, as I have a much greater bias toward in-season data and need a larger sample size to detect actionable wagers.
It’s worth noting that the Triple-A series consists of weekly six-game series that run Tuesday through Sunday. Additionally, every game is televised on MiLB.TV, which you can get as part of your MLB.TV subscription or directly at milb.com.
