The New York Mets host the New York Yankees on May 15, 2026. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on Apple TV+.
The Yankees are favored by -157 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Mets are +130 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Yankees vs Mets prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Yankees vs Mets Prediction
- Yankees vs Mets Pick: Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (-118), Clay Holmes Over 2.5 BB (+110)
My Yankees vs Mets best bets are Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 hits, runs and RBIs, and Clay Holmes Over 2.5 walks. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Yankees vs Mets Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +119 | 7 -120o / -101u | -157 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -143 | 7 -120o / -101u | +130 |
- Yankees vs Mets moneyline: Yankees -157, Mets +130
- Yankees vs Mets over/under: 7 (-120o / -101u)
- Yankees vs Mets spread: Yankees -1.5 (+119), Mets +1.5 (-143)
Yankees vs Mets Probable Pitchers
| RHP Cam Schlittler (NYY) | Stat | RHP Clay Holmes (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | W-L | 4-3 |
| 2.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 1.35 /2.52 | ERA / xERA | 1.86 / 3.74 |
| 1.65 / 2.54 | FIP / xFIP | 3.44 / 3.74 |
| 24.8 | K-BB% | 10.9 |
| 48.9 | GB% | 57.2 |
| .248 | BABIP | .222 |
| 113 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 108 | Location+ | 103 |
Yankees vs Mets MLB Betting Preview
New York Yankees Betting Preview
The Subway series opens up with each team sending its best ERA starting pitcher to the mound. It's Clay Holmes hosting Cam Schlittler.
The Yankees are 7-2 when Cam takes the hill. He's given up zero runs five times, one run twice and three runs twice. He's rocking a 1.35 ERA as the current frontrunner for AL Cy Young (+200 on DraftKings).
So the Yankees shouldn't have to do too much offensively to win this one behind their ace. The "Big Three" this year for the Yanks have been Aaron Judge (1.004 OPS), Ben Rice (1.072 OPS) and Cody Bellinger (.852 OPS). Bellinger has been particularly awesome in May with a 1.152 OPS.
The matchup against Holmes requires patience, base-running, and some well-placed ground balls.
Holmes has given up just three homers this year with a 56.5% GB%. His barrel rate against is very low at 5.1%. So the Yankees will have a tough time doing their usual thing and slugging their way to victory tonight.
The problem with Holmes is that he doesn't get many whiffs (10.6% SwStr%), and he gives away his share of free passes (8.3% BB%). He's particularly vulnerable against lefties with a sub-16% K% and a .330 xwOBA allowed to them. Two of the three homers he's given up have been against lefties.
This matchup looks pretty good for Cody Bellinger. A left-handed batter with more walks (15% BB%) than strikeouts (12%) this year, and a guy who does most of his damage on line drives rather than fly ball home runs.
New York Mets Betting Preview
The Mets lineup hasn't given Juan Soto much support this year. Soto himself hasn't been at his best (.829 OPS), but nobody else with significant plate appearances is anywhere near him.
They've been getting better work at the plate from Carson Bengelately (.854 OPS in his last 50 PAs), and one of their top prospects A.J. Ewing is up and off to a hot start at the plate with a triple, a steal, and a homer in three games.
This offense could round into form with Francisco Lindor back and be a very good set of hitters down the stretch, but for tonight, it's not an imposing group for Schlittler to go against.
The Yankees walk a lot. You don't really want to come right after them because of all of the power, so you nibble around the zone, and they're happy to let you do that. They have a team swing rate of 44%, which is three points below the league average and one of the lower marks in the game.
Yankees vs Mets Pick, Betting Analysis
I don't really want to pay the big juice for Schlittler lines. Everything has adjusted, and he's priced like an ace. I could see myself getting on some Schlittler fade bets pretty soon, but probably not tonight with this Mets lineup.
Schlittler has been fortunate in some regards this year (0% HR/FB, .248 BABIP), and that stuff should correct. He's also lost a couple of points on his K% from his recent work. So the league might be adjusting a bit.
However, I'll leave him alone. These are the bets I want here:
Picks: Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (-118), Clay Holmes Over 2.5 BB (+110)
We're taking advantage of Bellinger's recent hot streak, plus his elite discipline, and a matchup against a guy who struggles to put away lefties.
For Holmes, he's only hit over 2.5 walks in three of eight starts, but the Yankees draw more walks than anybody, forcing a 12.1% BB% from pitchers facing them this year, which is the highest mark in the league.
