MLB Best Bets, Picks: How We’re Betting Rays vs. Angels & More
Via Mike Ehrrman/Getty Images. Pictured: Reid Detmers #48 of the Los Angeles Angels pitches during a game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field on September 20, 2023 in St Petersburg, Florida.
MLB Best Bets for Wednesday
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 12:10 p.m. | ||
| 2:10 p.m. | ||
| 6:50 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
It's a great day for baseball, and there are 16 MLB games on tap on Wednesday, April 17. Our Action Network MLB experts have their best bets ready for a day full of afternoon baseball.
Find our MLB Best Bets Today and Expert Picks below.
Giants vs. Marlins
By D.J. James
Editor's note: After publication of this article, the Marlins announced that Trevor Rogers, not A.J. Puk, would be starting today's game. However, the author of this article notes that despite the change in starting pitcher, the recommended bet on this game remains the same.
Keaton Winn was a nice addition to the Giants pitching staff, and he might be carving himself out a space for the future. He has excelled at keeping the ball on the ground and getting hitters to chase.
Giants hitters have thrived so far this season against lefties, owning a 120 wRC+ and 16.6% Strikeout Rate against left-handers in 2024. Jorge Soler has struggled thus far off lefties, but historically he has hit well against them. Otherwise, the Giants have seven batters over a .330 xwOBA against lefties, so left-hander A.J. Puk might be the ideal opponent.
This pitching matchup should favor Winn and the Giants because Puk has not had the same early success this season. Puk has an abhorrent Walk Rate and has not pitched very deep into games.
Puk has been awful this season with 14 walks against only eight strikeouts. Yes, he limits hard hits from opponents, but this will not bode well against a Giants lineup that already trounces left-handers. In addition, Puk has not pitched through five innings yet, which won't help the Marlins' relief staff and could provide a boost to the Giants once again.
The Giants facing a lefty might produce the win they sorely need. Winn has shown he can be better than Puk, the Giants have some pop against lefties, and Jake Burger being injured is the cherry on top of a poor start to the season for the Marlins.
Take the Giants on the moneyline to win this game at -135 or better.
Pick: Giants ML -118 (Bet to -135)
Royals vs. White Sox
By Sean Paul
Kansas City will hand the ball to Brady Singer in this matchup, and he has developed into an ace in his fourth big league season. His resurgence has been spurred by his elite 65% Ground-ball Rate.
For reference, Singer posted a 49% Ground-ball Rate a season ago. Most ground-ball pitchers have poor underlying numbers since some balls find holes, and the pitcher needs to strand runners to maximize run prevention. However, Singer limited the White Sox to only two hits in six innings of work just two weeks ago.
The offense looked shaky quickly this season, but losing Luis Robert Jr. and Yoán Moncada to injury magnified the issues. Gavin Sheets is the White Sox's top hitter, and his .942 OPS is the best on the team by over 250 points. The only issue is Sheets is strictly a platoon lefty bat against right-handed pitchers. Luckily, Chicago reinstated Eloy Jiménez from the injured list Monday, so perhaps he will dampen the hitting woes.
Sometimes, seeing what's sitting in the minor leagues is worthwhile in a rebuilding season. That's where pitcher Jonathan Cannon steps in. The 23-year-old year right-hander will make his major league debut after allowing 15 baserunners in just 9.2 innings for Triple-A Charlotte.
I'll take the plus money with the Royals to cover the -1.5 run line on Wednesday. The White Sox will eventually win another game, but I don't think it will happen today. Singer is humming for Kansas City, and another rookie will take the hill for Chicago.
The White Sox have lost four straight games by two or more runs, and that will continue again today.
Pick: Royals -1.5 (+105)
Angels vs. Rays
By D.J. James
Zack Littell has been a classic Rays pitcher. He has been great in the starting role, ranking in the 91st percentile in Hard Hit Rate and 85th percentile in Average Exit Velocity. His slider is also a true wipeout pitch.
He faces off against Reid Detmers, who has been fantastic this season for the Angels. His Strikeout Rate is north of 40% with a Walk Rate right around average. That said, his Hard Hit Rate and Average Exit Velocity also rank well, which has led to a 1.04 ERA and sub-2.60 xERA.
The Angels have been about league average off of right-handers this season. Littell should carve them up because, aside from the top of the batting order, the Angels have not executed off of righties this season. There is a steep drop-off to the rest of the lineup.
Tampa Bay has had the same issue with only a few hitters with a .330+ xwOBA off of left-handers in limited at-bats. Granted, this can turn around eventually, but not with Detmers pitching the way he has.
However, the bullpens are the biggest threat to under bettors in this game. Nonetheless, the Rays ironed their bullpen issues out in 2023 as the season progressed, and the Angels have a few arms who can help take care of business as well.
Overall, the under should be played to 7.5 in this matchup because the bottom of each lineup is weak and will not manufacture runs in crucial spots against these strong starters.
Pick: Under 8 -110 (Bet to 7.5)
How would you rate this article?
Follow Us On Social
