MLB Best Bets Today | Picks, Odds for Orioles vs. Padres & More (Tuesday, August 15)

MLB Best Bets Today | Picks, Odds for Orioles vs. Padres & More (Tuesday, August 15) article feature image

Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images. Pictured: Jack Flaherty (Orioles)

It's a full slate in MLB on Tuesday, and that's good news for bettors because we have four best bets.

Our experts dive in below with picks for Orioles vs. Padres, White Sox vs. Cubs and much more.

Check out our MLB best bets today.

Tuesday's MLB Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

GameTime (ET)Pick
7:07 p.m. ET
7:10 p.m. ET
8:05 p.m. ET
9:40 p.m. ET
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Phillies vs. Blue Jays

Tuesday, August 15
7:07 p.m. ET ET
Phillies -115

By D.J. James

Yusei Kikuchi allows a ton of hard contact, and he'll be facing one of the hottest teams against left-handed pitching in August: the Phillies.

The Blue Jays will have to face the ace of the Philly pitching staff, Zack Wheeler. Wheeler has been unlucky all season and is one of the best pitchers in baseball. He should see some positive regression through the rest of the campaign.

Kikuchi holds an average exit velocity of 90.4 mph with a hard-hit rate of 41.7% and a barrel rate of 9%. Yes, he has a 1.24 ERA in the second half, but his xERA is higher than his ERA for a reason.

Wheeler is the opposite. He has a 3.75 ERA against a 3.32 xERA. His average exit velocity this season is 86.7 mph, his hard-hit rate is 37.7% and his barrel rate is 5.8%. His strikeout and walk numbers are also better than Kikuchi’s.

In over 175 plate appearances against lefties in August, the Phils have done well, holding a 9.7% walk rate, .852 OPS and a 129 wRC+.

Although the Blue Jays have a good lineup, they only hold a 7.8% walk rate, .647 OPS and 83 wRC+ off of righties in August.

Given that both bullpens have been mediocre this month, going with the better starter and lineup is the right call.

Take the Phillies to -140. They should be heavy favorites with Wheeler on the bump.

Pirates vs. Mets

Tuesday, August 15
7:10 p.m. ET ET
Pirates +120

By Kenny Ducey

The Mets have really struggled at home this year, slashing .228/.311/.399 at Citi Field. It likely has a lot to do with the fact that the Mets were an extreme ground-ball team last year but have hit far more fly balls this season, which doesn’t really work in a home stadium ranked 20th in park factor for home runs.

They’re hitting just .206 on fly balls this season, according to Baseball Reference, and against fly-ball pitchers, they’re hitting .239.

All that’s to say, I think Bailey Falter can have some success here on the road against the Mets. The 26-year-old is a strike-thrower who's pitched to a 29.3 fly-ball rate in his career, which puts him six points higher than the league average.

He hasn’t been fantastic since moving to Pittsburgh, but he did have to face the Braves last time out. This should be an easier outing against a team ranked 19th in wRC+ to lefties.

Speaking of lefties, David Peterson is bad. Yes, he’s had some good results since moving to the bullpen and then back to the rotation as a glorified opener, but his expected batting average in the month of July was .269 and in August, it's risen to .279.

His hard-hit rate is also right around 50% for the two months.

Peterson is the same guy he’s always been, which is a guy who'll give up batted balls with a high hit probability and compound that with a ton of walks.

The Pirates are sporting a great 9.5% walk rate over the last two weeks and a solid .174 ISO, leading me to believe even they can get to this troubled southpaw.

White Sox vs. Cubs

Tuesday, August 15
8:05 p.m. ET ET
White Sox F5 +0.5

By Kevin Rogers

The White Sox make the short trip to the North Side of Chicago and Wrigley Field for a two-game interleague set with the Cubs tonight.

The Sox were swept this past weekend at home by the Brewers, as they blew a pair of late leads in the first two games.

The Cubs pulled out a road series win at Toronto this past weekend to pull within one game of the Marlins for an NL wild card spot.

This is a nice revenge spot for the White Sox, who lost a pair of games at home to the Cubs last month. The Cubs closed as short favorites in each game, including the opening win by tonight’s starter Kyle Hendricks.

In the first five innings, the Cubs own a 1-3 record in Hendricks’ last four home starts. They've also compiled a 1-6 mark in the past seven home series openers in the first five innings. In five of those losses, the Cubs trailed by three runs or more through five innings.

Touki Toussaint is coming off consecutive nine-strikeout performances, but the Sox's right-hander allowed four runs in each of those games, both losses. Toussaint dropped his last two road starts, but he also opposed Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer in those outings.

Let’s back the White Sox in the first five innings at +0.5 with a price of -108 at FanDuel. We’ll recommend taking this to -115.

Orioles vs. Padres

Tuesday, August 15
9:40 p.m. ET ET
Over 8.5

By Tony Sartori

Right-hander Jack Flaherty takes the mound for Baltimore and should be a good fade candidate. Through 22 starts, Flaherty possesses a 4.33 ERA and 1.52 WHIP.

His underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is unlikely, as he also possesses a 4.56 xERA.

Meanwhile, fellow right-hander Michael Wacha makes his return to the mound for San Diego after missing the past month with a shoulder injury.

It's been a strong campaign for Wacha, who's 8-2 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through 15 starts. With that said, his analytics suggest that regression is looming, which is certainly amplified for someone making his first start since July 1 due to that aforementioned shoulder injury.

Currently, Wacha ranks in the 46th percentile or lower in xERA/xwOBA, xBA and xSLG. This regression could come to fruition against the Orioles, a team whom Wacha has struggled against.

Through nine career starts against Baltimore, the right-hander possesses a 5.87 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.

Currently, the total for this game can be found at 8.5, which is too low considering the starting pitchers and the two lineups that rank in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, SLG, OPS and home runs.

There have been nine or more total runs scored in six of Baltimore's past 10 games and in eight of San Diego's past 13.

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