White Sox vs. Twins Odds
| White Sox Odds | -106 [Bet Now] |
| Twins Odds | -112 [Bet Now] |
| Over/Under | 9 (-105/-114) [Bet Now] |
| First Pitch | Tuesday, 8:10 p.m. ET |
Odds updated as of Tuesday at 6:10 p.m. ET and via BetRivers. Get up to a $250 deposit match at BetRivers today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
After taking a one-game lead in the AL Central last night, the White Sox will try to continue their hot run of play on Tuesday as Chicago sends Dallas Keuchel to the mound to take on Michael Pineda and the Twins.
With their win last night and the Indians' loss to the Royals, the White Sox have regained sole possession of first place for the first time in what seems like forever. The Twins have now lost six straight games and trail the White Sox by 2.5 games in the AL Central standings. Minnesota needs to turn things around quickly with less than a month left in the season.
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Advanced Stats Glossary
FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.
wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.
wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA. xwOBA is a regressed version of wOBA that accounts for variables like park factors.
BaseRuns is a formula designed to estimate how many runs a team would be expected to score (or allow) given their underlying offensive (or defensive) performance. In other words, BaseRuns is a context-neutral run estimator used to evaluate teams. Major League average for an individual batter per game is 0.50 BaseRuns and a for a pitcher its 0.52 BaseRuns per inning.
White Sox Projected Lineup
The White Sox offense has been the primary contributor to Chicago's success this season. Chicago has the second-best wOBA (.348) and wRC+ (121) in MLB. The White Sox have been especially hot over the last two weeks, accumulating a .400 wOBA and hitting a whopping 33 home runs in their last 12 games. Jose Abreu has been on fire, hitting eight of the team's 33 home runs over that 12-game stretch.
The White Sox draw a fantastic matchup on Tuesday against Twins starting pitcher Michael Pineda. Chicago's batting lineup ranks in the top-10 in MLB against fastballs, sliders, and changeups — which are Pineda's main three pitches.
White Sox Probable Starter
Dallas Kuechel, LHP
Projected & Actual Stats (via Fangraphs)
Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)
Keuchel has been really good in 2020. He has posted a 3.76 xFIP, which is better than his preseason projections. Keuchel's three-pitch arsenal of a sinker, cutter and changeup has been fantastic so far, holding opponents under a .285 wOBA against all of those pitches.
Keuchel is a soft-tossing lefty that is looking to produce ground balls rather than overpowering opposing hitters. He has averaged over eight strikeouts per nine innings only once in his career: during his 2015 Cy Young-winning season.
Instead, Kuechel's success can be correlated with his ground ball rate. This season, Keuchel has produced a 55.9% ground ball rate, which is slightly lower than his 58.9% career average. Coincidently, his xFIP of 3.76 is also slightly above his career average of 3.53.
The Twins have struggled against lefties so far, reporting a .288 wOBA and 79 wRC+. So, Keuchel should have a good matchup on Tuesday night.
Twins Projected Lineup
The Twins offense has been ice-cold over the past week, accumulating a .207 average, .258 wOBA and 58 wRC+. Minnesota has done most of its damage against right-handed pitching. But as I mentioned previously, the Twins have struggled against left-handers, accumulating a .288 wOBA and 79 wRC+. The Twins have also had problems against sinkers and cutters, which are Keuchel's main two pitches.
Advantage: Keuchel.
Twins Probable Starter
Michael Pineda, RHP
Projected & Actual Stats (via Fangraphs)
Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)
Tuesday marks Michael Pineda's first start of 2020. He took a real step back in his first year with the Twins last season, posting a career-high 4.30 xFIP. Pineda mainly uses a fastball-slider combination that wasn't very effective last year, as both pitches allowed a wOBA above .300.
Now, he's on the wrong side of 30 and coming off a suspension for testing positive for a banned substance. So, things are not trending in the right direction for Pineda.
The White Sox have been crushing both fastballs and sliders, so Pineda will have his hands full against one of the best and hottest lineups in MLB.
Bullpens
Both bullpens rank near the top of the American League in terms of ERA and xFIP, so the bullpen matchup is pretty much a wash.
Projections and Pick
The White Sox have a fantastic matchup on Tuesday and based on the current odds, I think they are undervalued. Therefore, I am going to back the White Sox moneyline for both the first five innings (-124) and the full game (-122) (BetRivers), and I would bet both up to -140.
Picks:
- White Sox first five-inning moneyline (-124)
- White Sox full-game moneyline (-122)
