Spring Training is just around the corner, and rosters are nearly set for the season ahead. As we get a better picture of how each MLB team's lineup and pitching staff will shape up, we can start to think about division races.
Prediction market Kalshi has odds posted for each team's chances of winning the NL East, with three teams currently holding odds between 30% and 40% to do so.
You can trade on Major League Baseball and other sporting events, as well as thousands of additional markets, at Kalshi, which is available in most states. We wrote a full explainer on how it works here and have a Kalshi promo code ready if you want to get in on the action.
So, let's dive into some NL East predictions.
NL East Odds, Predictions
Odds are via Kalshi and update every hour.
New York Mets NL East Odds
After a disappointing 2025 campaign and an offseason that featured the departures of franchise cornerstones Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, and Edwin Díaz, it may be a bit of a surprise to some to see that the Mets carry the highest odds to win a competitive NL East in 2026.
However, the Mets have quietly had a very solid offseason, addressing their needs and paving the way for a strong prospect group to find big-league playing time. To complement Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor's majority left-handed plate appearances in the lineup, president of baseball operations David Stearns brought in right-handed hitters Bo Bichette and Marcus Semien, as well as another switch-hitter in Jorge Polanco. Plus, they made one of the biggest trades of the offseason in acquiring Freddy Peralta from the Brewers to be their ace, bolstering a rotation that needed a clear number one.
Those additions, combined with the contributions of young arms in the rotation and burgeoning prospects like outfielder Carson Benge, could put the Mets over the top in a division that didn't get much better since last season.
Atlanta Braves NL East Odds
The Braves suffered their worst season in years in 2025, as they dealt with a plethora of rotation injuries, Ronald Acuña Jr. tearing his other ACL, mainstays like Marcell Ozuna and Ozzie Albies regressing heavily, and the usually-reliable Matt Olson and Austin Riley not being able to pick up the slack.
A lot of that can be chalked up to bad luck, but the decline of the Braves' offensive core is a bit alarming, and they haven't done much this offseason to remedy that. Alex Anthopoulos' only free agent addition to the lineup was platoon outfielder Mike Yastrzemski, so it looks like Atlanta is banking on some positive regression and added contributions from a full season of Acuña and Jurickson Profar. If Chris Sale and Spencer Strider can return to form for something resembling a full season, the Braves could come away with the NL East crown.
Philadelphia Phillies NL East Odds
Sliding down to third in the division odds is the reigning NL East-winning Phillies. They've certainly committed to running most of their team back, having re-signed Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto to multi-year deals. The only major additions they've made are Adolis García in the outfield and Brad Keller in the bullpen, who are both nice-to-haves rather than season-changers.
The rotation that was one of the best in baseball last season has taken a hit, losing Ranger Suárez to the Red Sox in free agency and Zack Wheeler to an ominous thoracic outlet surgery. Philadelphia still has three strong anchors in Cy Young runner-up Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo, and Aaron Nola, but will need to lean more on its aging lineup to win games. The Phillies are far from the lock they have been to win this division, but with their pitching staff, they can never really be counted out.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections, and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment, and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
