When it comes to World Series futures, there are two intriguing first-place teams in the Big Apple.
The Yankees lead the AL East with a 36-22 record and a 5.5-game advantage over the second-place Blue Jays. The Mets, meanwhile, sit in first in the NL East with a 37-22 mark and a one-game lead over the Phillies.
But where does the value lie when it comes to making World Series bets? Let's dive into some MLB futures and World Series betting analysis at this point in the season.
World Series Futures: Yankees or Mets?
When comparing the two New York teams, it's fair to say the Yankees have it a bit easier in the AL East than the Mets do in the NL East.
The Mets have some tough competition with the Braves and the Phillies to worry about. Across the National League, you've got strong contenders fighting for those wild-card spots, whether it's in the NL West or the Cardinals in the NL Central.
The Yankees don't really have to worry about that kind of gauntlet right now.
Yankees Own Pitching Development Advantage
Now, both teams are pretty impressive with their pitching, but the Yankees seem to have a stronger roster overall with a bit more high-end talent in their pitching staff.
Clay Holmes is a curious case after he left the Yankees for the Mets. While the Bronx Bombers might not have fully utilized him to his potential, they've clearly been successful in optimizing other talents like Max Fried and Ryan Yarbrough, who recently had a standout performance against the Dodgers.
Matt Blake, one of the most underrated pitching coaches, deserves kudos, and the Yankees’ analytics team has also been top-notch at fine-tuning pitchers' skills, whether it’s tweaking grips, pitch types or strategy. They just don't get enough recognition for their savvy pitching development.
Despite the Yankees' hefty budget, they're right up there with teams like the Guardians, Rays and Brewers, who are known for developing pitchers on tighter budgets.
The Mets, for their part, have also been working on pitching development, adding new tricks to Holmes' repertoire, like transitioning a slider into a sweeper for a bit of a changeup.
However, when it comes to developing hitters, the Mets seem to be struggling a bit. Brett Baty has shown some improvement defensively, but they’ve had a hard time nurturing bats that shine at the big-league level. For example, Francisco Alvarez hasn’t quite lived up to expectations so far.
More Confidence in Yankees
Looking ahead, I've got more faith in the Yankees. They’ve got a track record and positioning in their division that just gives them the edge.
If we started fresh with both teams at zero wins and losses, their potential seems pretty similar.
But with the Yankees having a slight advantage in starting pitching and the Mets holding a small edge in the bullpen, it’s really about the context of their division play.
The Mets entered this season with heavyweights like the Braves and the Phillies to contend with. Meanwhile, the Yankees’ main competitors — the Red Sox, Rays and Jays — don’t feel quite as threatening.
Ultimately, I see a path for the Yankees emerging on top, at least when comparing these crosstown rivals.
