Check out my two favorite MLB player prop picks today for Friday, September 4.
MLB Player Props Today
- Jake Bauers Home Run (21c, Polymarket)
- Heriberto Hernandez Home Run (18c, Polymarket)
- Carter Jensen Home Run (18c, Kalshi)
Brewers vs Reds Player Prop
With three weeks left to play in the regular season, the Milwaukee Brewers hold a firm grip on the best record in baseball.
Although great pitching and stellar defense have been the driving forces behind Milwaukee’s winning ways this season, this team can score runs in bunches.
In his third season with the Brewers, Jake Bauers has quietly been a major reason for this team’s resounding success. The 30-year-old journeyman is in the midst of a career-best campaign, leading Milwaukee with a career-high 23 home runs while ranking fifth in the National League in OPS (.876).
Bauers hits the ball as hard as anyone in the sport; his 52.7% hard-hit rate ranks 10th in all of Major League Baseball. He also owns an average exit velocity (92.3 MPH) that hovers around the top 20 in MLB. He has improved dramatically since his first taste of action with Tampa Bay in 2018, and is now one of the more respected hitters in the game.
Tonight’s starter for Cincinnati, Rhett Lowder, has certainly learned to respect Bauers. The 24-year-old right-hander has been bullied by the veteran in their previous matchups, as Bauers is now 5-for-8 against Lowder with a pair of home runs. In six matchups this season in particular, Lowder has retired Bauers just once.
Lowder has generally had issues giving up the long ball to left-handed hitters, as lefties have accounted for 12 of the 16 homers he has conceded this season. Southpaws are also slugging .455 this season against Lowder with an .801 OPS.
The second half of the season has not gone swimmingly for Lowder, who has been taken deep seven times in just 42 1/3 innings of work since the All-Star break. He’s now allowed a home run in six consecutive starts, and given recent history, could be in line to add to that total tonight when Bauers steps into the batter’s box.
Pick: Jake Bauers Home Run (21c, Polymarket)
Cubs vs Marlins Player Prop
Heriberto Hernandez is another example of a hitter making tremendous strides at the plate in 2026. In just his second Major League season, the 26-year-old is turning into a feared slugger in the heart of Miami’s lineup and has made a name for himself by tormenting left-handed pitchers.
The overall numbers have been very solid for Hernandez, who leads the playoff-contending Marlins with 23 homers, a .788 OPS, and a .240 ISO on the season. However, his splits against southpaws have been especially jaw-dropping, as the 26-year-old is now up to 10 home runs and a .556 SLG in just 124 at-bats.
The latest victim for Hernandez might be tonight’s starter for the Cubs, Shota Imanaga, who has been struggling mightily down the stretch this season. With 11 home runs allowed since the All-Star break, including nine in the month of August alone, the left-hander is now tied for most homers allowed in the majors with 33.
Although Wrigley Field might be responsible for some of these egregious outings, Imanaga has had trouble keeping the ball in the yard on the road as well. The 33-year-old has conceded 13 homers in 56 2/3 innings away from Chicago in 2026 and has been knocked around in pitcher-friendly venues such as St. Louis’s Busch Stadium and Seattle’s T-Mobile Park.
Miami’s LoanDepot Park may not be considered a hitter’s haven, but it hasn’t fazed Hernandez this season; the Marlins’ outfielder has belted nearly half of his home runs (11) in home games this season, slugging .488 along the way.
Hernandez is one of just 15 hitters with 10 or more homers since the All-Star break, and has a fantastic chance to add to that total tonight against Imanaga and the visiting Cubs.
Pick: Heriberto Hernandez Home Run (18c, Polymarket)
Blue Jays vs Royals Player Prop
Carter Jensen might be the hottest hitter on the planet right now. After struggling quite a bit in July and August, the 23-year-old rookie has racked up seven hits, including three home runs, in his last 12 at-bats to open the month of September.
Kansas City’s young phenom is obliterating the baseball right now; seven of his last eight batted-ball events have registered exit velocities over 99 MPH, while 14 of his last 20 batted balls have been belted over 95 MPH. These kinds of at-bats have been common throughout much of the season, as Jensen ranks just inside the top 40 among hitters in average exit velocity (91.4 mph).
Although he has struggled to make contact at times, it’s encouraging to see Jensen bounce back after some dreadful stretches in the middle of the season, especially considering how common these kinds of slumps can be for catchers who are learning to balance the rigors of the job behind the plate.
Perhaps the comfort of playing at home has been a driving force behind Jensen’s success, or lack thereof; the rookie backstop owns an .842 OPS in Kansas City compared to a .684 OPS on the road. He is hitting .258 and slugging .507 with 11 home runs in 245 plate appearances at Kauffman Stadium.
Jensen and the red-hot Royals continue their homestand tonight against Toronto and get a juicy matchup against veteran starter Jameson Taillon. The 34-year-old will be making his third start with the Blue Jays in 2026, which has undoubtedly been a year to forget Taillon.
Prior to being traded to Toronto in August, and subsequently missing almost a month with injury, the right-hander was posting career-worst numbers for the Cubs earlier this season. In 76 innings with Chicago, Taillon had surrendered a .564 SLG to opponents alongside 25 home runs and an unsightly 5.92 ERA.
For the season, his xSLG of .525 is the fifth-worst mark among all qualified major league pitchers, while his 5.76 xERA ranks 11th.
Left-handed hitters have done plenty of damage against Taillon, accounting for 14 of his 26 total home runs while slugging .549 along the way. Jensen, meanwhile, is crushing righties in 2026, as 19 of his 22 bombs have come against that side of the split.
Although this type of hot streak can’t last forever, everything lines up for Jensen to have another monster performance for the Royals in tonight’s matchup with Taillon and Toronto.
Pick: Carter Jensen Home Run (18c, Kalshi)
