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Two teams that ranked near the bottom of the league in home runs during the regular season are back in the spotlight Tuesday for Game 2 of the ALCS, and PRO Projections are already pointing bettors toward the best value on the board.
Cleveland checked in at No. 27 in homers, while Tampa Bay finished No. 22 — not exactly traditional October launchpads. But with postseason pitching, shorter samples and a few power bats capable of changing the game with one swing, the home run market can still offer plenty of edge.
That’s where the premium PRO model comes in.
Built on data-driven projections that compare player performance, matchup context and betting odds, the home run predictor identifies the biggest edges and worst prices for each slate. Action PRO subscribers get access to those premium insights, including prop projections, systems and more.
Today's best bets are at +880, +650 and +525. Let’s see where premium model projections found value for Tuesday’s Guardians vs. Rays showdown.
MLB Home Run Projections, Picks & Parlay for ALCS Game 2
Chase DeLauter and Patrick Bailey both cleared the fences for the Guardians in Monday's Game 1.
Here are Tuesday's picks to click.
Best Guardians Home Run Picks
Guardians: Jose Ramirez +650 (bet365)
Ramirez owns the best grade on the slate and comes with a 0.21 home run projection. At +650, there’s clear value relative to the model’s price — especially with odds as short as +520 in other spots. Ramirez also proved his October power in the ALDS, homering twice.
Guardians: Jo Adell +525 (bet365)
Another Cleveland bat with serious long-ball appeal is Jo Adell. He carries a 0.25 home run rate, tied for the highest projection on the slate. Adell still hasn’t gone deep this postseason, but he’s been active on the bases with a double and two triples, and the power upside remains obvious.
Best Rays Home Run Picks
Rays: Jonathan Aranda +880 (FanDuel)
Tampa Bay’s best value belongs to Jonathan Aranda, who posts a 0.14 projection and a +3.8% edge at this number. At nearly 9-1, he’s the lone Rays hitter making the premium cut.
PRO also flagged two Rays bats as poor home run bets: Taylor Walls (+1550) and Ben Williamson (+1500). Both carry just a 0.05 homer grade, making them overpriced relative to their true probability.
An Action PRO subscription unlocks all premium betting tools. But for the MLB postseason, home run projections will be free every Tuesday! Check out PRO for model projections across various sports, expert picks, and all the resources you need to bet smarter.
