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The Cleveland Guardians host the Chicago White Sox on October 10, 2026. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on TBS.
The Guardians are favored by -142 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The White Sox are +120 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and White Sox vs Guardians prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
White Sox vs Guardians Prediction
- White Sox vs Guardians Pick: White Sox Moneyline (+120, FanDuel; Play to +115)
My White Sox vs Guardians best bet is on Chicago to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page, and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
White Sox vs Guardians Odds
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -182 | 7.5 108o / -132u | +120 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 7.5 108o / -132u | -142 |
- White Sox vs Guardians moneyline: White Sox +120, Guardians -142
- White Sox vs Guardians over/under: 7.5 (+108o / -132u)
- White Sox vs Guardians spread: Guardians -1.5 (+150), White Sox +1.5 (-182)
White Sox vs Guardians Probable Pitchers
| Sean Burke (RHP, CHW) | Stat | Gavin Williams (RHP, CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 11-7 | W-L | 14-8 |
| 3.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.5 |
| 3.34/3.78 | ERA / xERA | 3.76/3.82 |
| 3.62/4.00 | FIP / xFIP | 3.47/2.85 |
| 17.2% | K-BB% | 25.1% |
| 34.9% | GB% | 43.5% |
| .283 | BABIP | .288 |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 105 |
| 101 | Location+ | 105 |
White Sox vs Guardians MLB Betting Preview
Chicago White Sox Betting Preview
Just 10 of 95 teams to fall behind 2-0 in a best-of-five series have rallied to win in MLB history. Will Venable’s upstart young White Sox squad looks to avoid becoming the latest team on the wrong side of that statistic Saturday while extending the ALDS trend of road teams coming out on top.
Fifteen pitchers appeared in the chaotic Game 4, but both teams will return to traditional starters for the series decider, with Sean Burke set to face Gavin Williams. Burke has faced Cleveland four times this season, posting a stellar 1.19 ERA in those outings across 22 and 2/3 innings. That includes an excellent Game 2 performance, when he allowed just one hit and one earned run over 5 1/3 innings.
Throughout nine and 1/3 innings of work this postseason, Burke has pitched to an xFIP of 2.09 and allowed a hard-hit rate of just 26%, while striking out 13.5 batters per nine.
The White Sox held a wRC+ of 103 versus right-handed pitching in the second half of the season, and have no notable position players unavailable for this matchup. They were more reliant on the long ball than the Guardians, which is not ideal based on the expected conditions at Progressive Field for Saturday's matchup, but the team has shown the ability to grind out at-bats and manufacture runs otherwise versus elite pitching this postseason.
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview
Gavin Williams will pitch just two days after recording the final three outs of Game 4. Williams stated, in a phrase we have heard a lot the last week, that outing can be viewed essentially as his regular bullpen session and he is fully ready to go in this matchup.
Williams has worked plenty versus the White Sox this season, and has generally fared well, pitching to an ERA of 3.77 across 26 and 1/3 innings. He holds an xFIP of 1.68 in 14 and 1/3 innings this postseason and held an xERA of 3.34 with a 2.82 xFIP in his final ten starts of the regular season.
Though the Guardians have really struggled with Sean Burke this season, they had a league average offense versus righties but held well below average results versus lefties, and Venable has tried to attack Cleveland with a ton of lefties in the series as a result.
Both Hunter Gaddis and Cade Smith have worked in all four games this series, which makes the Guardians feel slightly less rock-solid than usual in any potential high leverage spots that arrive in this matchup.
White Sox vs Guardians Pick, Betting Analysis
It feels as though the Guardians have all the momentum entering Game 5, but that could change in a hurry if Burke authors another strong outing, and game-to-game "momentum" is not proven to be a bettable trend. These two division rivals have been extremely well matched all season long, and it feels as though there is a fairly equal case for both teams entering Game 5.
Williams is a more proven starter than Burke, but it doesn't feel as though they are far apart right now based on what we have seen from Burke this postseason. Both overworked bullpens offer question marks in this game, and the Guardians don't seem to have a notable edge in that regard either.
Backing the White Sox to steal their third road win of the series at +120 is more appealing than laying -140 with Cleveland, and I'd back Chicago down to +115.
Pick: White Sox Moneyline (+120, FanDuel; Play to +115)
