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The Milwaukee Brewers host the Los Angeles Dodgers on October 11, 2026. First pitch from American Family Field is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on FOX.
The Dodgers are -107 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the run line. The Brewers are -113 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 6 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Dodgers vs Brewers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Dodgers vs Brewers Prediction
- Dodgers vs Brewers Picks: Under 6 (-108) & Tarik Skubal Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-149)
My Dodgers vs Brewers best bets are on the under total runs and Tarik Skubal K prop. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page, and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Dodgers vs Brewers Odds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +166 | 6 -112o / -108u | -107 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -203 | 6 -112o / -108u | -113 |
- Dodgers vs Brewers moneyline: Dodgers -107, Brewers -113
- Dodgers vs Brewers over/under: 6 (-112o / -108u)
- Dodgers vs Brewers spread: Dodgers -1.5 (+166), Brewers +1.5 (-203)
Dodgers vs Brewers Probable Pitchers
| Tarik Skubal (LHP, LAD) | Stat | Jacob Misiorowski (RHP, MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 12-7 | W-L | 16-5 |
| 5.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 6.6 |
| 2.72/2.94 | ERA / xERA | 1.80/2.12 |
| 2.51/2.70 | FIP / xFIP | 2.17/2.29 |
| 25.6% | K-BB% | 31.3% |
| 36.2% | GB% | 44.1% |
| .289 | BABIP | .237 |
| 117 | Stuff+ | 128 |
| 106 | Location+ | 100 |
Dodgers vs Brewers MLB Betting Preview
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview
It’s Tarik Skubal starting it off for the Dodgers. He’s an ace, a former (and maybe future) Cy Young Award winner, and LA has to feel very good about having used him only once in the NLDS.
But one thing has changed a little bit for Skubal. He has only a 28% K% with the Dodgers after being at 31% with the Tigers this and 32% last year. He’s thrown fewer changeups and more four-seamers, which has cost him a whiff or two here and there.
The Brewers win games with small ball, and they’ll be happy to extend some at bats and prioritize getting some balls into play rather than going for it all on one swing. They have a postseason-best team K% at 17%. It seems clear how they’re going to try to win this series. They want to scratch out some runs and play in low-scoring games.
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview
Both teams got to the NLCS just like they wanted, able to setup their rotation in whatever way they choose. That’s a bigger advantage for the Brewers than for the Dodgers, as Milwaukee will want to get the maximum amount of work from Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson in this series to give them the best chance.
Misiorowski didn’t have the best go of it in his first playoff start. He went just four innings on 88 pitches against the Padres, giving up two runs on four hits. The good news was that he still had huge velocity and was filling the strike zone at an elite 27% Ball%. But the Padres fouled off a bunch of pitches, extended at-bats, and got into the Milwaukee bullpen early. That’s exactly what the Dodgers will be trying to do in this one.
The Dodgers faced Misiorowski once in the regular season and held him to six strikeouts in six innings. That’s well below Misiorowski’s standards. That game was in LA; this one’s in Milwaukee. And if we check on the home/road splits for the big man:
At Home: 44.5% K%, 5.9% BB%, 20.9% SwStr%
On Road: 34.7% K%, 7.5% BB%, 17.0% SwStr%
He’s elite everywhere, but he was on a different level in his home park. It’s a seven-game series, and Misiorowski is their best player. I see them letting him ride through 90+ pitches even if he gives up a few hits and a couple runs early. We’re riding Misiorowski at home.
Dodgers vs Brewers Pick, Betting Analysis
Misiorowski vs. Skubal. It doesn’t get a lot better than this with MLB best two teams duking it out in game one. Just from a fan of the game perspective, the Brewers seem to need this game more than the Dodgers do. That doesn’t change the odds of them actually winning, but it feels a lot more important for Milwaukee at home with one of their two trustworthy SPs on the hill. Compare that to the Dodgers, who have their home games still to come and three other aces in the hole.
The O/U of six is seemingly the minimum the books will offer. Maybe I missed one or two this year, but I don’t believe I’ve seen an O/U of 5.5. That might be a hard limit the books are putting up. But I think it’s too high.
In games started by Misiorowski, opponents averaged 2.6 runs.
In games started by Skubal, opponents averaged 3.0 runs.
Add those together and you get 5.6, below our O/U mark of six runs. Maybe that’s overly simplistic math, but you see how the books could’ve been tempted to put this O/U at 5.5
I also am jumping at Skubal’s under strikeout prop. The Brewers make a ton of contact, and Skubal just hasn’t been the same super-elite strikeout pitcher since switching teams.
Picks: Under 6 (-108) & Tarik Skubal Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-149)
