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It's Dinger Tuesday, and for today’s National League Division Series action, I’ve got three home run picks exclusively for the Brewers vs. Padres matchup.
Read on for my 3 MLB Home Run Picks on Dinger Tuesday.
MLB Home Run Picks Today
In the table below, you'll find each of Grant Neiffer's top home run prop picks from today's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 9:30 PM | |
| 9:30 PM | |
| 9:30 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Brewers vs Padres Prediction, Pick
In a small sample size, Nick Pivetta has been good at suppressing righty power this season, but the Padres starter has still been susceptible to righty power (1.29 HR/9) and is due for some negative regression.
Jackson Chourio has been a great power bat, and with this good matchup, I have his true odds at around +370.
Pick: Jackson Chourio Home Run
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Brewers vs Padres Prediction, Pick
Historically, Pivetta has been reverse-split when it comes to power, allowing a career 1.51 HR/9 to righties.
William Contreras isn't a huge power bat, but I have his true odds here at around +520.
Pick: William Contreras Home Run
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Brewers vs Padres Prediction, Pick
Dustin May has been a below-average matchup for righty power this season, but with a 38.1% fly-ball rate and 42% hard-contact rate, the Brewers starter is due for some negative regression.
He grades out around an average matchup for righty power, which makes these odds far too high.
I have the true odds for Fernando Tatis Jr. at around +420.
Pick: Fernando Tatis Jr. Home Run
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