MLB Notes, Trends & More For End of Regular Season

The 2023 MLB regular season has come to a close and what a year it was. The Orioles won the AL East, the Diamondbacks and Marlins ended up in the playoffs, the Red Sox and Yankees finished in the basement and so much more.

All data, stats and trends are updated as of the end of the 2023 MLB Regular Season.

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Nine MLB teams entered the season with 100-1 or higher World Series odds. Two of them made the playoffs in the Marlins (100-1) and Diamondbacks (125-1). They become the 12th and 13th teams since 2000 to be listed at 100-1 or higher to win the World Series in the preseason and make the playoffs.

Here is the breakdown of their results. A mixed bag.

• Won World Series: 0
• Made World Series: 2 (2006 Tigers, 2008 Rays)
• Won 1st series/game: 6
• Lost 1st series/game: 5
• Won two series/games: 2 (2006 Tigers, 2008 Rays)

Only three teams in the last 32 years have won the World Series with 30-1 odds or larger entering the regular season.

Longest Preseason Odds to Win World Series — 1991-Present

1991: Minnesota Twins (80-1)

2003: Florida Marlins (75-1)

2002: Anaheim Angels (40-1)

2013: Boston Red Sox (28-1)

2014: San Francisco Giants (25-1)

2011: St. Louis Cardinals (25-1)

2010: San Francisco Giants (25-1)

Recently, we haven't seen a team win it all at very long odds. Since the Royals in 2015, no team has won above 16-1 odds in the preseason (2019 Nationals).

Here are the longest odds currently to win the World Series:

• Marlins: 50-1
• Diamondbacks: 40-1
• Brewers: 20-1
• Blue Jays: 20-1
• Twins: 18-1

Let's go the other direction now. How about teams who failed to meet expectations? With the newly added wild-card teams in the playoff field we've now had back-to-back years where teams with 90+ win totals missed the playoffs.

2023: Yankees (94.5), Padres (93.5), Mets (92.5)
2022: White Sox (92.5), Brewers (90.5)

You have to go all the way back to 2003-04 to find five different teams with a win total of 90 or more miss the playoffs in consecutive years. Plus, the Yankees missing with a win total of 94.5 puts them on a short list.

Highest Win Totals to Miss Playoffs since 1996:
2011 Red Sox: 95.5
2002 Mariners: 95.5
2023 Yankees: 94.5
2021 Padres: 94.5
2019 Red Sox: 94.5
2010 Red Sox: 94.5

Two 93+ Win Totals Miss Playoffs Same Season:
2023: NYY, SD
2008: DET, NYM, NYY

Longest Odds to Make the Playoffs — Teams to Make Playoffs:

2023: Diamondbacks (+425)

2023: Marlins (+400)

2021: Giants (+800)

2018: Braves (+500)

2018: Athletics (+650)

2017: Twins (+700)

2017: Diamondbacks (+400)

2016: Orioles (+550)

Shortest Odds to Make the Playoffs — Teams to Miss Playoffs:

2023: Mets (-500)

2023: Yankees (-500)

2023: Padres (-400)

2022: White Sox (-400)

2021: Padres (-600)

2019: Guardians (-550)

2019: Red Sox (-680)

2018: Nationals (-825)

What a season for the Orioles, who won the AL East for first time since 2014 and just the third time since 1985. Not only that, they have been very profitable for their bettors.

+Orioles end this season 101-61 on the moneyline, profiting a $100 bettor $2,824.
+Over the last two seasons, an Orioles bettor has made a $100 bettor $5,281.

Only one team in the Bet Labs database, which goes back to 2005, has had a better two-year stretch for bettors than the 2022-23 Baltimore Orioles and that was the Texas Rangers in 2015-16, profiting bettors $5,283 on a $100 bet.

The Orioles also went from 30-1 to the favorite to win the AL pennant now entering the playoffs. They are only the second team since 2006 to open at 30-1 or longer to win either pennant and enter the playoffs as the favorite. The 2007 Cubs did so at 35-1 to +250, where they were co-favorites entering with the Phillies.

With the Orioles winning the AL East at 25-1 odds in the preseason, they join an exclusive list of longshots to win the division over the last 15 years — not to mention, the Rangers making the list at 10-1.

2021 Giants: 50-1
2012 Athletics: 30-1
2023 Orioles: 25-1
2018 Braves: 25-1
2008 Rays: 25-1
2011 Diamondbacks: 16-1
2015 Rangers: 15-1
2022 Guardians: 10-1

On the other end of the spectrum are the Oakland Athletics, who finished the season 50-112 on the moneyline, the second-worst team in all of baseball ahead of just the Chicago White Sox — which probably says more about the White Sox than the A's.

In 162 games, the A's only managed to be listed as the favorite in three of their first 161 total games — being listed as the favorite in their last game of the year vs. Angels.

Removing the 2020 Orioles (4 games as favorite) and Pirates (1 game as favorite) from the list due to the COVID-shortened season — the 2023 A’s join just the 2006 Royals for fewest games as a favorite since 2005.

What a team year it was for home teams in MLB. They finished the season 1,261-1,161 on the moneyline, with a $100 bettor down $13,649 (a -5.6% ROI).

Dating back to 2005, which is the entirety of our Bet Labs database (which explains that date used a few times in this article), that is the least profitable year for home teams in that span on the moneyline.

The 1,261 home wins on the moneyline this year is the fewest since at least 2005 and from the official MLB stat dept, it would be fewest home wins overall in a season since 1999.

Time to recap the best and worst pitchers in baseball on the moneyline this year.

It's hard to ignore Royals SP Jordan Lyles, who began the year with 15 consecutive losses for Kansas City when he took the hill, which was the longest such streak to begin a season all-time. Since then, he ended the year 6-7 on the moneyline in his last 13 starts.

Lucas Giolito, who played for the White Sox, Angels and Guardians this season, ended up being the least profitable pitcher on the moneyline, ending 9-24, with a $100 bettor down $1,601.

Now for the best pitchers on the moneyline this year.

That's easy. The winner by a large gap was Dean Kremer of the Baltimore Orioles. He finished 24-8 on the moneyline, making a $100 bettor $1,457 — the highest mark for any starter since Chris Flexen in 2021 (+$1,588).

Speaking of the best and the worst. Let's look at win total streaks.

The Dodgers cashed their win total over this year, making it five straight seasons going over the total, the longest over streak in MLB.

While in the same state, the Angels haven't been so lucky. They went under their win total again this year for the sixth time in a row, the longest active streak in all of baseball.

Both the Athletics and the Nationals entered the preseason with win totals below 60 — just the fourth and fifth teams to do so in the last 25 years.

One team performed above and one below expectations this year.

2021 Pirates (58.5; over)
2019 Orioles (58.5; under)
2013 Astros (59.5; under)
2023 Athletics (59.5; under)
2023 Nationals (59.5; over)

What the Nationals did this season was remarkable from a betting perspective. Washington finished second in moneyline profitability behind just the Orioles.

Plus, over the last 25 years, five MLB teams have had a win total below 60. Washington was the only one to turn a profit for bettors.

Here is how they've performed on the moneyline based on a $100 wager:

2023 Nationals (59.5 win total | +$1,316 | 69-91)
2023 Athletics (59.5 win total | -$3,171 | 50-112)
2021 Pirates (58.5 win total | -$1,211 | 61-101)
2019 Orioles (58.5 win total | -$1,801 | 54-108)
2013 Astros (59.5 win total | -$2,468 | 51-101)

The Mets had a win total of 92.5 entering the season, which opened at 95.5 earlier in the offseason.

At 92.5, this was the highest win total for the Mets since 2008. Since then, Mets have now closed at 90 wins or more four times and went under their win total all four seasons.

Betting against the Reds has been a cash machine recently. Entering this season, the Reds hadn't turned a profit for their moneyline bettors since 2012 — 10 consecutive seasons.

In that span, a $100 bettor would have been down $12,095 simply betting the Reds — almost $4,000 more than any other team in baseball.

2023 changed it all. Reds ended the year 82-80 on the moneyline, with a $100 bettor up $1,068, making Cincinnati the fourth-most profitable team this season behind just the Orioles, Nationals and Brewers.

How about this stat: The over hasn't been profitable in Rockies games overall in now eight straight seasons — the last time being 2015.

From 2016 to 2023, the under is 624-528-47 (54.2%) — in that span, they are the most profitable team to the under by a large margin. Rockies unders have profited a bettor $5,903 in that span, the second-most is the Brewers at $3,540.

A final congratulations to Adam Wainwright. He ends his career 258-168 on the moneyline between the regular season and postseason. A $100 bettor would be up $4,065 — making him the most profitable starting pitcher in the Bet Labs database and only two pitchers are even within $1,500 of him: Chris Tillman and Mark Buehrle.

As with home teams, what a tough year for the public betting baseball.

For reference, the public is considered any team who closes with 51% or higher of the moneyline tickets on a game — or the majority of bettors.

In 2023, the public finished 1,332-1,066 on the moneyline. But due to the juice when laying a favorite usually with the public (meaning a -150 bettor needs to pay $150 to win $100), the public was down a total of $14,974 in 2023 — the worst year by almost a $4,000 gap in the Bet Labs database.

With home teams struggling and the public down on their luck, big favorites also had a tough campaign.

Teams with a moneyline of -200 or higher finished 297-155 (65.7%) with a $100 bettor down $3,277, the worst year for big favorites since 2005. The second worst? Last year, losing a $100 bettor $1,421.

Disappointment in New York and Boston hit extra hard this year.

This will be the first time since 1966 that the Red Sox and Yankees finish last and second-to-last in their division (since 1969) or league. In 1966, they finished ninth and 10th out of ten teams in the league.

Let's take a look at a few awards.

Shohei Ohtani is expected to win AL MVP. He opened the year as the favorite to win the award at +200. Ohtani would join only Mike Trout as pre-season favorites to win the MVP since 2010. Trout did it three times (2014, 2016, 2019).

On the other side, Ronald Acuna Jr. is expected to take home the hardware in the NL. He opened the year at +900 to win the award, third in odds behind Mookie Betts and the favorite, Juan Soto. Acuna would be the first NL MVP to win the award under 10-1 since Ryan Braun in 2008.

Historical odds history via Sports Odds History

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