MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets: Odds & Model Picks for Wednesday
Julio Aguilar/Getty Images. Pictured: Tampa Bay’s Aaron Civale.
It was a 2-2 day on Tuesday, with our big swing on the Giants team-specific YRFI not paying off in a game that fell short of the total by five runs.
Now, we have six MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and predictions for Wednesday, May 7, with afternoon and evening games.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets: Wednesday, May 8
Starting Pitchers: Jose Soriano vs. Martin Perez
Both Soriano and Perez are a bit difficult to project. They each have ERAs in the threes but with vastly differing ERA predictors — some supporting their success, some not.
However, Perez has been elite early in games, with a 1.08 ERA and 3.21 xFIP his first time through the order, and he gets to face the Angels without Mike Trout.
Soriano's early-game splits are closer to average, but the 26th-ranked Pittsburgh offense isn't much of a threat.
The total is a bit high at 8.5, but that's why we're getting a solid price on the NRFI, which is widely available at similar lines.
Starting Pitchers: Chris Bassitt vs. Aaron Nola
Most of the equity here comes from the Phillies. They're tied for second in the MLB in wRC+ as a team, with three well-above-average hitters atop their lineup even without Trea Turner.
They're taking on Chris Bassitt and his 5.45 overall ERA. Although, Bassitt has been better early in games.
The opposite is true for Aaron Nola. He's been solid overall with a 3.32 ERA, but his ERA comes in at 5.93 the first time through the order to go with a 4.85 xFIP.
That gives Toronto's disappointing offense a reasonable shot in the first inning, though I wouldn't fault anyone for going with the Phillies team-specific line at +195 for a half-unit instead. I'd pivot to that option if this line moves much.
Starting Pitchers: Reese Olson vs. Tanner Bibee
I'm lifting our unofficial ban on Tigers bets for this one.
Detroit starter Reese Olson has a 2.70 ERA on the season with strong underlying metrics and even better first-time-through-order splits. Bibee has a 1.76 ERA his first time through the order and has been better overall than his full-game ERA indicates.
Part of the problem with betting the Tigers in the first inning is their wide variety of lineup permutations. This one projects fairly well even with the most optimistic Tigers order, so it could only get better if their strong hitters slide a few spots down the lineup or get the day game off.
Starting Pitchers: Jose Quintana vs. Sonny Gray
Cardinals starter Sonny Gray has been elite this season with a 0.89 ERA and 2.24 xFIP through five starts. He won't maintain either of those numbers, but it's still a very good sign.
Jose Quintana has been… not elite. He holds an overall ERA of 5.20, but it drops to a respectable 3.07 his first time through the order.
That leaves us with the better pitcher taking on a strong offense and a questionable pitcher taking on an awful offense. The Cardinals lost their only plus-plus hitter Willson Contreras to a broken arm, and now, the top of their order is fairly beatable.
Starting Pitchers: Joe Ross vs. Brady Singer
I don't love the pitching matchup today, with both starters putting up solid overall and early-game numbers. However, it's not often we get an even-money YRFI in a game with a nine-run total.
Both offenses have some strong hitters at the top of the lineup, which is enough to take a swing at the current price point.
Starting Pitchers: Chris Flexen vs. Aaron Civale
At face value, this isn't a great pitching matchup. Both starters have overall ERAs around the 6.00 mark this season.
However, both have been much better early in games, particularly Flexen. His ERA the first time through the order sits at 1.54. Given that he has the tougher lineup to face, that's a solid sign.
There's also very little risk coming back from the White Sox side given they have the worst offense in baseball. I'd blindly bet any NRFI at this price if I knew one team wasn't going to score.
That's not technically the case, but the White Sox's odds are low enough that this is still a play.
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