Wednesday’s MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: 5 Best Bets Including Marlins vs. Braves & Phillies vs. Mets (April 14)
Getty Images. Pictured: Rhys Hoskins slides into second base as Francisco Lindor tries to turn a double play.
- Two of our MLB analysts picked Phillies-Mets for their best bet for Wednesday.
- One of them focused on the total, while the other picked a side.
- Continue reading for all five of our staff's best bets for Wednesday.
Editor's Note: Wednesday's game between the Seattle Mariners and Baltimore Orioles has been postponed because of inclement weather. It will be made up Thursday as part of a doubleheader beginning at 12:35 p.m. ET.
There are 15 games on the MLB schedule for Wednesday, including a doubleheader between the Red Sox and Twins, and a national broadcast on MLB Network between the Phillies and Mets.
Our staff has found five bets on the slate from four different games, including a pair from that aforementioned battle in Queens. Below, you will find our five best bets for Wednesday.
MLB Odds & Picks
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Mike Ianniello: After just two starts since his return to Chicago, Jake Arrieta looks more like the Arrieta who took home the 2015 NL Cy Young Award.
Granted, both starts were against the Pirates so take it with a grain of salt, but through his first two outings, Arrieta has thrown 12 innings and allowed just three runs and has nine strikeouts. Arrieta said he made some adjustments to his curveball this offseason, and he has thrown it more often and more effectively than he ever has so far.
Opposing Arrieta might be the most underrated pitcher in all of baseball. Corbin Burnes has looked dominant for the Brewers this season after a tremendous 2020 season. Last year, Burnes went 4-1 in nine starts with a 2.11 ERA, 2.04 FIP and a 13.27 K/9.
He has somehow been even better this year, allowing just two hits and one run through 12 innings and striking out 20 batters. He has a 0.73 ERA and 14.59 K/9. Burnes' strength is his cutter, which he throws an incredible 95.9 mph, the fastest anybody in the league throws a cutter.
Burnes will look to continue that dominance over one of the worst offenses in baseball. The Cubs are last the MLB in runs per game, scoring just 2.91 per contest. The Cubs sit worst in the league in team batting average, slugging percentage and on-base percentage. Both teams rank in the bottom 10 in strikeout percentage.
I expect this to be a low scoring game between two pitchers who have started the year great against two weak offenses.
Editor's Note: Wednesday's game between the Seattle Mariners and Baltimore Orioles has been postponed because of inclement weather. It will be made up Thursday as part of a doubleheader beginning at 12:35 p.m. ET.
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles
Brad Cunningham: The Orioles are favored for a third time in a row Wednesday after being underdogs for the previous 45 games.
Matt Harvey is trying to find some of the magic he had in the past with Mets, but at this point that effort seems futile. Harvey's last two seasons in the big leagues have been horrendous with ERAs over 7 and xFIPs over 5. He's had no command with any of the pitches in his arsenal and opposing hitters have teed off against his fastball, with a wOBA over .400 the last two seasons.
Seattle should be able to get to Harvey, like the Red Sox did in his last start, tagging him for seven hits and four runs in only five innings.
Justin Dunn came over to the Mariners in the Robinson Canó trade and is now finally getting a chance to pitch in the starting rotation. His first start of the season was an interesting one to say the least, as he only allowed one hit in 4 2/3rds innings, but allowed eight walks to the White Sox.
Dunn has a very average fastball, sitting around 93 mph and he struggles commanding it, as was evident in his first start. His best weapon by far is his slider. It has fantastic late, breaking action and he's able to command it as well. The slider were one of the pitches the Orioles somewhat struggled against last season, so I expect Dunn to throw it very often tonight.
This is likely going to be a slugfest, but I do have the Mariners projected as -117 favorites, so I think there is good value on them at +110 and would play them up to +100.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
Tanner McGrath: Phillies starter Zach Wheeler's 2021 campaign is off to a good start, as he had back-to-back solid outings against the Braves. However, the lesser of Wheeler's two starts came on the road, which is definitely a trend. Here are his home/road splits over the last two seasons:
- 2020 home: 2.38 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, .278 wOBA
- 2020 away: 3.86 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, .306 wOBA
- 2019 home: 3.92 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, .278 wOBA
- 2019 away: 4.00 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, .308 wOBA
Wheeler pitches on the road tonight, but against a Mets team that is 28th in MLB in runs per game while leading the league in weak contact percentage (7.5%, per Baseball Savant).
But Wheeler made three starts against the Mets in 2020 and wasn't immaculate in any of them. He allowed two runs in the first game and three in each of the others. Moreover, his xFIP was 0.60 points higher than his FIP in those games, suggesting he may have gotten a little lucky.
Meanwhile, Mets starter David Peterson's campaign is off to a rough start. He got destroyed in his 2021 debut against these Phillies, allowing six runs on seven hits and two walks over just four innings.
Plus, Peterson also got crushed in a September game against the Phillies last season. He managed just two innings in the start, allowing five runs on three hits and four walks.
But the Phillies do boast a great lineup that hits even better against southpaws. Last season, Philadelphia posted a .768 OPS and a 106 wRC+ against righties but a .815 OPS and a 118 wRC+ against lefties.
The combination of the Mets vs. Wheeler on the road and the Phillies vs. the left-handed Peterson makes me believe the over is the smart play. Plus, the wind is blowing out today and the over is 8-2 in the last 10 games between these two clubs. I played the over 8 at -110 on FanDuel and would play it to -115.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
Kenny Ducey: The Mets have not hit as promised in 2021, but they can hang their hat on the fact that they rank sixth in baseball with a .247 average within the split, and a 115 wRC+. The Phillies haven’t hit as promised either, though they own just a 93 wRC+ against lefties.
With that said, I must be out of my mind laying juice with the Phillies, right? Well, when it comes to this specific pitching matchup, Philadelphia actually has the edge.
Zack Wheeler will get the ball for the Phillies against the Mets, and all he’s done against his former team in three starts against them is post a 3.54 ERA over 21 1/3 innings, allowing 21 hits and posting a ridiculous 13.00 K/BB ratio. I will remind you here that this is his second season away from New York, so those numbers hold some relevance with a relatively similar lineup this year.
On the other side of the coin, we have the soft-tossing lefty David Peterson, who has been particularly bad this year with a 13.50 ERA and 8.83 expected ERA, ranking in the bottom-3% of the league in barrel rate and the bottom-8% in xwOBA and xSLG. That would be because of his one start of the season, when he was knocked around by the Phillies for six runs on seven hits over four innings.
I see history repeating itself here; I’m just not sure how Peterson improves at all considering his expected stats weren’t really great last year, either — and his worst start happened to be against … you guessed it, Philadelphia. The Phillies will exact their revenge here and break out at the plate.
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves
Sean Zerillo: The Marlins' offense is due for some positive home run regression, after recording a 6.9% HR/FB rate to start the season; the MLB average is roughly double that figure.
Wednesday's plate umpire Alfonso Marquez has had a slight lean to the over throughout his career (53.6%) returning +$1,919 for a consistent $100 bettor with a 4.1% ROI over a sample of 464 games.
Furthermore, there's a steady stream of wind blowing out to left field at SunTrust Park around 10 mph this evening. "Windy Overs" fitting this criteria have won at a 52.5% clip with a 2.8% ROI since 2005 (+15,512 for a consistent $100 bettor) across all ballparks. Just 22 games at SunTrust have fit this weather criteria, but the Over is 13-5-4 (72.2%) in that small sample.
I projected this total at 9.25 runs for Wednesday night, and I would bet the Over 8.5 up to -115.
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