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Red Sox vs. Mets MLB Odds & Picks: Back Jacob deGrom to Keep Rolling Against Boston (Wednesday, April 28)

Red Sox vs. Mets MLB Odds & Picks: Back Jacob deGrom to Keep Rolling Against Boston (Wednesday, April 28) article feature image

Mike Stobe/Getty Images. Pictured: Jacob deGrom.

  • The Mets are heavy favorites with Jacob deGrom on the mound Wednesday.
  • deGrom has been sensational this season, but that hasn't necessarily turned into wins.
  • Kevin Davis breaks down why he's backing New York and deGrom below.

Red Sox vs. Mets Odds

Red Sox Odds +210
Mets Odds -250
Over/Under 7
Time Wednesday, 6:40 p.m. ET
Odds as of Tuesday and via DraftKings

The Boston Red Sox lead the American League East, and the New York Mets are one of the leading teams in the National League East. This season, the Mets were expected to compete for the World Series, while the Red Sox were expected to be around .500.

Boston has exceeded their expectations this season but was an underdog on Tuesday, and the Sox are underdogs again for Wednesday, with good reason.

The Mets are sending Jacob deGrom to the mound, although they have underperformed in his starts this season. That is mostly down to randomness rather than a lack of motivation.

It may be a popular trend that the Mets are a bad bet when deGrom pitches, but that is statistical noise and not a signal. When I simulated Wednesday night’s game 10,000 times in my model, my model found a larger edge with the Mets.

Let’s break down how to back them.

Boston Red Sox

When teams with bleak projections before the season do well at the beginning of the season, it is generally because of good fortune. One way to see if a team is going to keep their winning record is if they have a positive run differential. The Kansas City Royals had won 66.7% of their games entering Tuesday night, yet have a run differential of only +4. The Oakland A’s have a 65.2% winning percentage and a -1 run differential. However, the Boston Red Sox seem to be for real as they have a run differential of +20, the fifth best in MLB.

In the future, this is a great angle to use when betting on the Red Sox, but they face an uphill battle on Wednesday.

Besides having to face deGrom, their pitching will be weaker with Nick Pivetta getting the start. Their lineup is also weaker in interleague play without a designated hitter. Put those two things together, and Boston will need Pivetta’s best outing of the season to be competitive on Wednesday night.

Additionally, the biggest reason why the Red Sox have a great run differential is because of their lineup. Boston is currently averaging 5.17 runs per game which is the third highest in the league.

However, the Red Sox will be unable to use a designated hitter against the Mets in the NL ballpark. While their typical designated hitter J.D. Martinez will be playing in the outfield, my model projects the Red Sox on a typical night without a DH to only score only 3% more runs than the average MLB lineup.

New York Mets

The best reason by far to bet on the Mets is because of deGrom. Over four starts this season, deGrom has a 2-1 record with a 0.31 ERA and strikeout rate of 15.52 per nine innings. While deGrom is bound to regress to the mean, the regression will not be too bad based on his previous seasons.

deGrom has a 1.27 xFIP, suggesting that his low ERA is not a fluke. Last season with a universal DH, deGrom had a 2.38 ERA and a 2.46 xFIP. Against a Red Sox lineup without a designated hitter, deGrom should have a field day.

The Mets’ only weakness so far this season has been their lineup. New York is averaging only 3.29 runs per game, which is the third-lowest total in the league. However, I am not too worried about the Mets lineup in the long run. According to my model, every key Mets position player has underperformed their preseason offensive projections. Once Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto start hitting, the Mets will be the best team in the NL East.

In the meantime, they should do well against Pivetta.

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Red Sox-Mets Pick

It may be a square pick, but I like the Mets -1.5 run line at almost even-money odds. Based on my MLB model, which is anything but square, deGrom is so good that even when you account for him regressing to mean and the Mets lineup, the Mets should win by at least two runs.

Against a Red Sox team with a weaker lineup and weak starting pitching on the night, I am not concerned about New York’s chances on Wednesday night.

Pick:  Mets -1.5 -103 (play to -115)

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