Welcome to Opening Day of the 2026 MLB season.
The season kicks off with Logan Webb and the San Francisco Giants hosting Aaron Judge and the New York Yankees on Wednesday, March 25. First pitch from Oracle Park is scheduled for 8:05 PM ET. You can stream all the action on Netflix.
Per FanDuel Sportsbook, the Yankees are -126 moneyline favorites and -1.5 (+142) run line favorites. Meanwhile, the Giants are +108 moneyline underdogs and +1.5 (-172) run line underdogs. The total is set at 7 runs, juiced slightly toward the Under (-105/-115).
Our staff of MLB betting experts has been waiting all Winter for this moment. So, naturally, we have four MLB Picks and Opening Day Best Bets for Wednesday's matchup.
MLB Picks: Today's Best Bets for Opening Day
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:05 PM | |
| 8:05 PM | |
| 8:05 PM | |
| 8:05 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Yankees vs Giants Picks
By Sean Zerillo
I project an edge in only a handful of games across the 15 that currently have lines in the first three days of the 2026 MLB season, and the Yankees are the lone favorite to pop up as a moneyline edge in my model.
New York has the better lineup, particularly given the relative offensive splits against the handedness of the respective starting pitchers. The Yankees have just two below-average hitters against right-handed pitching, while the Giants have four below-average bats against lefties (average 117 vs. 102 wRC+)
Moreover, while Logan Webb projects as a slightly more effective pitcher than Max Fried, neither will go more than around five innings in their first starts of the year, and the Yankees' relief pitching is both better and deeper — five of the seven and six of the nine best relievers in this matchup are in the away bullpen.
The Yankees are also the more athletic team, both in the field and on the basepaths.
A defensive infield featuring Rafael Devers at first base (29 career games played), Luis Arraez at second base (combined -5 DRS or Defensive Runs Saved in 56 games played over the past two years), and Willy Adames at shortstop (combined -18 DRS over the past two years) is a potentially disastrous combination behind Webb (Career 57.1% groundball rate).
Harrison Bader (+6 DRS in Center Field in 2026) pushes Jung Hoo Lee (-18 DRS in Center Field last season) to a corner where he belongs. Still, Heliot Ramos (-6 in left field in 2026) ranked among the worst left fielders last season, after finishing among the worst center fielders (-15) in 2024.
Pitch frame god Patrick Bailey (No. 1 among catchers with 19 DRS in 2025, and 20 in 2024) could also see his value decrease in the ABS era.
Bailey's pitch framing is worth about 1% to the Giants' win probability in any matchup, and if ABS neutralizes that ability, I'd make the Yankees closer to -150 in this matchup.
Still, I would take the Yanks up to -128 (you can call it -130), representing a 2% edge over my projection for Wednesday night.
Follow Zerillo on the Action App and get all of his MLB picks here:
Pick: Yankees ML (-128 or Better)
| | | |
Yankees vs Giants Prop
By Sean Koerner
Did you think I was going to open the season with a strikeout prop I’m showing a 63% chance to hit? Nope.
Let’s have some fun with a wild longshot.
I’m in line with both starting pitcher props for Opening Day, so I did some digging on hitter props, and my jaw dropped when I saw Bellinger at +4700 to hit a triple.
Obviously, the odds are still slim that he actually gets one, but this is offering way too much value according to my model.
Bellinger had five triples last season, which ranked 11th in MLB. But Yankee Stadium is the second toughest park for triples because of its dimensions.
He gets a massive boost playing at Oracle Park, a place that literally has a section called Triples Alley in right-center, and the park itself ranks top 5 in triple park factors.
It’s obviously a tougher matchup against Logan Webb, who generates a high ground-ball rate with his sinker and keeps hitters off balance with a five-pitch mix.
But Bellinger is a pretty ideal counter. He’s also the toughest Yankee hitter to strike out, and I’m only giving him around a 15-17% chance to strike out in each of his three or four plate appearances in the opener.
Another sneaky factor is that we should see Jung Hoo Lee make his first start in right field, with the Giants using Harrison Bader in center field this year. Lee already doesn’t have great range in the outfield, and while he knows Oracle Park’s weird center/right-field quirks, it still could take some time adjusting to those angles from right field instead of center field. That might be enough to help Bellinger turn a potential double into a triple.
Is this a crazy Opening Day bet? Yes.
Do I still love it at +4700 because I project it closer to +2800? Also yes.
It’s a long season. I’m not trying to be perfect. I’m trying to chip away at +EV bets and have some fun — this wager checks both boxes.
Follow Koerner on the Action App and get all of his picks here:
Pick: Cody Bellinger 1+ Triple (+3000 or Better)
| | | |
Yankees vs Giants Prediction
By Doug Ziefel
We flip sides and turn our attention to the Giants' top bat in Rafael Devers, who's being undervalued in this matchup.
Devers is coming off a rough spring, during which he hit .182 in 33 at-bats.
However, he was very unfortunate in his small sample this spring, as he posted elite Hard-Hit and Barrel rates while hitting the ball in the air nearly 46% of the time.
It's clear that he is still squaring up the ball when putting it in play. That should begin to pay dividends tonight as he faces a lethal lefty in Max Fried.
Fried was everything the Yankees paid for in 2025, leading the staff with authority.
Still, he was far from dominant against left-handed hitters, posting a 4.80 ERA behind a 33% fly-ball rate allowed to the side. Those fly balls also turned into extra-base hits at an alarming rate of 35.3% last season.
Factor this into a Spring Training where Fried struggled mightily with command early in counts, and posted a well-below-average CSW.
We should see Devers be in hitters' counts against Fried tonight, and it will be his turn to cash in on the positive regression in a big way.
Check out all of Ziefel's MLB player props for Opening Day here:
Pick: Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Total Bases (+150 or Better)
| | | |
Yankees vs Giants HR Pick
This is a tough matchup for Trent Grisham, but the odds for him to hit a homer are too good to pass up.
Grisham had a breakout year last season, hitting 34 dingers. Some of that is due to playing in Yankee Stadium, but he posted career highs in Barrel and Hard-Contact rates.
His underlying numbers looked great last season, so I think he’s in for another solid season.
Oracle Park is a tough place to hit for power, and Logan Webb excels at keeping the ball on the ground (0.71 HR/9 allowed to lefties last season).
But, all things considered, I make Grisham’s true odds to go yard at +650, and would be willing to take a shot on this bet at 7-to-1 or better.
Follow Neiffer on the Action App and get all of his MLB home run bangers here:
Pick: Trent Grisham Over 0.5 Home Runs (+700 or Better)
| | | |
