The San Francisco Giants host the New York Yankees on March 25, 2026. First pitch from Oracle Park is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on Netflix.
The Yankees are favored by -124 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Giants are +106 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Yankees vs Giants prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Yankees vs Giants Prediction
- Yankees vs Giants Pick: Yankees ML
My Yankees vs Giants best bet is on the Yankees to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Orioles Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +152 | 7 -105o / -115u | -124 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -184 | 7 -105o / -115u | +106 |
- Yankees vs Giants spread: Yankees -1.5 (+152), Giants +1.5 (-184)
- Yankees vs Giants over/under: 7 (-115o / -105u)
- Yankees vs Giants moneyline: Yankees -124, Giants +106
Yankees vs Giants Projected Starting Pitchers
| Max Fried (2025) | Stat | Logan Webb (2025) |
|---|---|---|
| 19-5 | W-L | 15-11 |
| 4.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 5.5 |
| 2.86 / 3.37 | ERA / xERA | 3.22 / 3.58 |
| 3.07 / 3.41 | FIP / xFIP | 2.60 / 2.78 |
| 1.10 | WHIP | 1.24 |
| 17.2% | K-BB% | 20.8% |
| 52.4% | GB% | 53.2% |
| 109 | Stuff+ | 106 |
| 104 | Location+ | 105 |
Yankees vs Giants Betting Preview
New York Yankees Betting Preview
Max Fried — the Yankees' lead arm until we see signs of life from Gerrit Cole — will toe the slab on Wednesday, hoping to once again get off on the right foot in 2026.
He began last year with a 2.43 ERA in 20 first-half starts, only to pitch to a 3.56 ERA in the 12 that followed. His ERA was north of five runs in 10 starts spanning July and August, and while he had four brilliant starts down the stretch, including one in the postseason, he also had some clunkers and ended his season by folding in Game 2 of the ALDS against Toronto.
The bottom line is that, other than the first couple of months, we haven't seen consistency from Fried.
That lingered into Spring Training this season, when the lefty struggled to a 4.40 ERA across 14 1/3 innings, striking out just 12 and allowing a .226 average. Considering his first start was his best, and he ended his spring by issuing four walks in five frames, I'm not sure there's a whole lot to get excited about other than the solid full season the lefty had last year in New York.
While Fried's fly ball rate went up a whopping five points last year, he still managed to come in a comfortable three points below league average. It's something worth monitoring, as the Yankees typically like fly-ball arms and surely influenced the bump, but this is still a firm ground-ball pitcher who ranked just outside the top 10% in gopher balls last year.
While that wasn't exactly the best way to get outs, judging by the Yankees' -3 Outs Above Average in the infield (16th among MLB defenses), the defense should see a boost with Jose Caballero stepping in for an injured Anthony Volpe at short and deadline acquisition Ryan McMahon getting set for a full season at third.
Offensively, this was a great Yankees team in the aggregate last season, but one that hit just .255 with runners in scoring position (12th among MLB lineups) and one that struggled to find a flow in the postseason.
Trent Grisham is once again the leadoff man, something that seems set in stone for no apparent reason, which truly hampered the Yankees' offense in October. Aaron Judge wound up hitting .500 in seven games, but it was all for naught with the leadoff man in front of him posting a .219 OBP across 32 plate appearances. He's at .292 this spring, and .321 for his career, so I truly wouldn't expect much despite his brief resurgence last season.
That aside, this is an offense that produced last year and should produce plenty more with the same names in the order. But in tight games, it's struggled to find the right formula.
San Francisco Giants Betting Preview
Logan Webb will get the ball for San Francisco, coming off an adventurous Spring that saw him allow just one run in five innings of Cactus League play, only to return from a successful World Baseball Classic trip to yield six runs on eight hits and a walk over 4 1/3 innings against the Colorado Rockies.
While we don't always love looking into Spring numbers, one thing that I'd point out is that the last time Webb had a disastrous spring — in 2024, when he pitched to an ERA north of 10 runs — he wound up pitching to a 4.86 ERA across his first three starts.
Compare that to last season, when he opened to a 1.89 ERA in the same span after a great Spring. I think there's something to that.
The other thing with Webb is that it's just hard to get a feel for what he's going to do next.
The ground-ball expert began to tail off a bit in 2024, yielding a .270 Expected Batting Average — his worst in a full season — but things took an unexpected turn in 2025 when he ratcheted his strikeout rate up nearly six points to a well above-average 26.2% clip. He's been trickling his ground-ball rate down over the last few years — probably a wise idea given his home park — and it helped him post a near-career-best .385 xSLG allowed.
He did face the Yankees once last season, faring decently well on the road, allowing three runs over five with five strikeouts. While he did walk four, we know he normally sports one of the best walk rates in the game.
We need to get to the Giants' offense, because it certainly looks a bit different than last year.
Luis Arraez is San Francisco's new leadoff man, though judging by his performance in Venezuela's WBC run, he might want to slot in as the third hitter.
Kidding aside, there are some legit returning bats behind him like Matt Chapman, Rafael Devers, and Heliot Ramos, while Jung Hoo Lee hadn't done nearly enough to jump-start the offense as the team's previous leadoff hitter.
The season will probably hinge on Lee and Willy Adames, projected to hit fifth and sixth, as they're two talented players who have had disappointing starts to their careers in San Francisco.
Harrison Bader should cool off a bit inside a large park as a home run hitter, and Jerar Encarnacion surely won't hold the DH job for long.
Overall, this is a Giants offense that has the chance to take a step forward this year, and while the arms in the rotation don't exactly excite you, there are some intriguing new names in the bullpen — and we know San Francisco has a knack for developing pitching.
Yankees vs Giants Pick, Betting Analysis
We'll see an experiment in platoon avoidance on Wednesday as the Giants, who employ three un-platoonable bats in Arraez, Lee, and Devers, will keep those names in the lineup versus the southpaw Fried on Wednesday.
The Giants do have four right-handed bats on the bench, but none of them really have any sort of track record of hitting in the big leagues.
Given that, the Yankees' improved infield defense, and the reduced risk of the home run — which Fried struggled with this spring — I'm not sold on San Francisco's ability to produce in bunches. Yes, the top of this order looks formidable, but after that, it's anyone's guess.
On the flip side, while I will forever disagree with Grisham leading off for any team, I think there is little to worry about with the Yankees' offense coming off a great year.
I'm also just ever so skeptical of how Webb feels coming off a bad final start to spring, and whether or not the trip to the WBC derailed his ramp-up to the season. He did look good in his two outings there, so perhaps I'm grasping at straws. But I also know what I saw in 2024, when he had to shake the rust of a poor season.
The Yankees typically fare excellently against ground-ball pitchers, and last year was no different when they led all MLB lineups with a .771 OPS in the split. They should have no fear of Webb, and with many questions on the other side of the ball, I'll be backing the road favorites.
Pick: Yankees ML
