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Wednesday MLB Odds & Picks for Mets vs. Cardinals: Back Stroman, Mets To Get Past St. Louis (May 5)

Wednesday MLB Odds & Picks for Mets vs. Cardinals: Back Stroman, Mets To Get Past St. Louis (May 5) article feature image

Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: New York Mets starting pitcher Marcus Stroman.

  • The New York Mets and St. Louis Cardinals square off in Wednesday's doubleheader.
  • Marcus Stroman gets the ball for the Mets in the opener, which has Mike Vitanza backing the visitors.
  • Check out his in-depth analysis on the opening game of this National League twin bill.

Mets vs. Cardinals Odds

Mets Odds -115
Cardinals Odds -105
Over/Under 6
Time 5:15 p.m. ET
Odds as of Wednesday morning via BetMGM.

After a rain out on Tuesday, the New York Mets and the St. Louis Cardinals will compete in a doubleheader Wednesday at Busch Stadium.

Despite a 4-6 record over their past 10 games, the Mets (11-12) find themselves tied for second with the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East and just a half game out of first place.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals (17-12) are tied for first place with the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central.

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New York Mets

Marcus Stroman will take the hill for the Mets in the opener after leaving his last start early with a hamstring injury. He doesn’t expect it to hinder his performance, but it’s something to keep an eye on as his start progresses.

Through his first six outings, Stroman has pitched extremely well, compiling a 1.84 ERA, 2.70 FIP and low 0.31 HR/9 rate. The Mets have also been encouraged by the sharpness of his fastball early on, with Stroman seeing an average fastball velocity of 93.8 mph that’s his highest mark since 2017.

He’ll take on a Cardinals team that has not been overly effective against right-handed pitching so far. Collectively, they’ve hit to just a .292 wOBA (eighth worst in MLB) and a .140 ISO that is seventh worst in baseball.

The Mets’ bullpen has been a strong spot this season. In fact, it currently leads all of baseball with an impressive 3.22 xFIP and 11.16 K/9 through 69 1/3 innings. If Stroman can come away with a strong start, manager Luis Rojas will have no qualms about handing the ball off in this game.

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St. Louis Cardinals

On the other side, Kwang Hyun Kim will make his fourth start for the Cardinals. He’s been very effective, compiling a 2.16 FIP to go along with a strong 10.54 K/9 and low 0.66 HR/9. He’s also pitched at least five innings in each of his last two starts, allowing just a single earned run in each.

However, his advanced metrics suggest he might be in line for some negative regression. He’s allowed 17 hits in just 13 2/3 innings pitched, which has accounted for a .400 BABIP. He’s also allowed an alarmingly high Hard-Hit Rate (41.5%) and Barrel % (17.1%) so far this season.

The Mets have also been one of the better teams in baseball against left-handed pitching, collectively hitting to a .332 wOBA and 114 wRC+ thus far in such situations.

If Kim struggles, the Cardinals’ bullpen doesn’t offer much support. It has been one of the worst units in the league, compiling a 4.93 xFIP thus far and that’s the second-worst mark in all of baseball.

Mets-Cardinals Pick

Between Stroman and a strong bullpen core, there’s no doubt the Mets have the pitching advantage heading into the opener. While Kim also has strong numbers, he’s almost certainly due for some negative regression and takes on an opponent that has fared well against southpaws.

The Mets’ offense is the wild card here. After a five-game stint where the bats were  completely dormant, they have woken up of late, averaging six runs per game over their past three outings. The matchup suggests they can continue the offensive awakening against Kim and a very substandard bullpen.

While we’re only going to see seven innings, the Mets have the tools to win this game on both sides of the ball. I’m comfortable playing NewYork up to the current -115 odds in this spot.

Pick: Mets ML (-115)

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