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MLB Best Bets: Top Picks From Saturday’s Afternoon Slate, Including White Sox vs. Twins

MLB Best Bets: Top Picks From Saturday’s Afternoon Slate, Including White Sox vs. Twins article feature image
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Stacy Revere/Getty Images. Pictured: Luis Robert

  • There are 11 day games on Saturday, and our analysts have identified a couple of value spots.
  • There's both a total and a home underdog as we are targeting White Sox-Twins and Mets-Cubs.
  • Continue reading for analysis of our best bets.

There are 11 days games on Saturday, the penultimate day before the All-Star break.

With that many games on the slate, there are plenty of opportunities to find betting value. Our analysts have targeted a couple of games and are playing a total and backing a home underdog.

Here are our best bets from Saturday’s afternoon slate.

MLB Odds & Picks

Click on a game to skip ahead
White Sox vs. Twins
2:10 p.m. ET
Mets vs. Cubs
2:20 p.m. ET

White Sox vs. Twins

Pick
Over 9 (-110)
Book
Caesars
Pitchers
Dylan Bundy vs. Lance Lynn
First Pitch
2:10 p.m. ET

DJ James: Both Dylan Bundy and Lance Lynn have had rough starts to their 2022 campaigns and are not what the Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox expected upon entering this season.

Lynn is one of the most fiery pitchers in the MLB. He wears his heart on the mound, and surely his expectations are much loftier than what he has shown this season. That said, he ranks in the 35th percentile in both Hard-Hit Percentage and Average Exit Velocity. The Twins have a team wRC+ of 126 off righties over the past month, so they will probably destroy some baseballs.

The Twins have eight hitters above a .350 xwOBA since June 16, which does not bode well for Lynn. In addition, six hitters are averaging at least 90 mph off the bat in that same timeframe. Lynn will need to show he has some 2021-like performances left in him to get past this lineup because the odds are stacked against him.

Dylan Bundy has also had trouble inducing weak contact. He ranks in the 45th percentile in Hard-Hit Percentage and in the 22nd percentile in Average Exit Velocity. This essentially aligns him with Lynn. Bear in mind, he only strikes batters out at a 17.9% rate and barely walks anyone (5.0%).

These lineups are far too strong to expect good outings from both Bundy and Lynn. Even with some strengths in the ‘pen for each team, the over should hit. The bats should be on fire, as each team has power throughout the order. Take the over at 9 and play to -120.


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Mets vs. Cubs

Pick
Cubs (+125)
Book
WynnBet
Pitchers
Marcus Stroman vs. Taijuan Walker
First Pitch
2:20 p.m. ET

DJ James: Marcus Stroman will make his second start off of the Injured List for the Cubs against Taijuan Walker and the Mets. Stroman looked sharp in his last outing as he threw four shutout innings with three strikeouts against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Walker has been pretty solid, too and fanned seven over seven strong innings in his last outing. However, he has been lucking out a bit. His xERA is 3.56, which is still solid, but his ERA is almost a full point lower at 2.63. He has been one of the more reliable Mets pitchers lately, but he ranks in the bottom half of the league in Average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Percentage.

The Cubs have five batters with a xwOBA over .330 in the month of July. This is not necessarily the best, but they have a few others at the bottom of the order who can battle when Walker remains in the game. Chicago also has four hitters with an average exit velocity over 89 mph, which should be enough to exploit one of Walker’s noteworthy weaknesses.

Stroman has been a bit unlucky this season. He has a 4.91 ERA against a 4.51 xERA. His Hard-Hit Percentage does hover around 47% with an Average Exit Velocity of 91.2 mph, though, as mentioned above, he looked sharp in his return from injury. The Mets lineup has been below average against right handers this month, which also works in Stroman’s favor.

The Cubs have fared better against righties lately and that’s the angle to target in this game. Based on Stroman’s recent, encouraging performances, he will fare better than Walker. Take the Cubs at +125 and play to -110. This game is much more even than the market has shown.


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