MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox (Saturday, Sept. 12)
Jason Miller/Getty Images. Pictured: JaCoby Jones (21) and Jorge Bonifacio (57).
- The Chicago White Sox are the favorite Saturday as they take on the Detroit Tigers at Guaranteed Rate Field. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET.
- Chicago will send Renaldo Lopez to the mound on Saturday, and Michael Fulmer gets the start for Detroit.
- Michael Arinze previews White Sox vs. Tigers, including odds, analysis and projections for tonight's game.
Tigers vs. White Sox Odds
|Tigers Odds||+155 [Bet Now]|
|White Sox Odds||-182 [Bet Now]|
|Over/Under||10.5 (-104/-118) [Bet Now]|
|First Pitch||7:10 p.m. ET|
The Detroit Tigers find themselves 3.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League. Detroit took a 3-0 lead in the sixth inning of last night’s game against the White Sox, but Chicago answered right back with four runs in the bottom half of the inning. That was enough to hand the Tigers their third loss in the last 10 games.
Tonight, Detroit will look to bounce back with Michael Fulmer on the mound, and he’ll be opposed by Reynaldo Lopez of the White Sox. Both pitchers have struggled this season and have very similar numbers, yet the White Sox opened up as -165 favorites and have been bet up as high as -185 at some books.
Let’s examine the pitching matchup to determine if that price move is warranted.
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Chicago White Sox
Reynaldo Lopez is 0-2 with an 8.38 ERA and 2.28 WHIP. Lopez has only made four starts and has struggled with his consistency amid a shoulder injury this season.
Lopez’s 7.45 BB/9 ratio and his 2.79 home runs allowed per nine innings are some of the worst stats I’ve seen all year. With numbers like that, you can understand why he’s only lasted four innings in one game this season.
The White Sox are 5-7 in Lopez’s career starts against the Tigers. Detroit’s current lineup is hitting .265 against Lopez with a .344 OBP and .518 SLG.
Like Lopez, Michael Fulmer hasn’t been able to go particularly deep into ball games. But unlike his counterpart, Fulmer has been on a pitch count for much of the season after recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Fulmer hasn’t thrown more than 65 pitches this season. And while it’s probably wise for the Tigers to be cautious with him in his return, it may also be negatively affecting Fulmer’s ability to get into a rhythm.
Despite starting seven games, Fulmer has only pitched a total of 19.2 innings. He has a 4.58 BB/9 ratio and is allowing 3.20 home runs per nine innings.
The encouraging news for Tigers fans is that Fulmer’s best outing this season came against the White Sox. He completed three innings of shutout ball as the Tigers went on to a 5-1 victory.
Fulmer does report positive career numbers against this White Sox lineup. Chicago is only hitting .242 against him with a .330 OBP and a paltry .333 SLG percentage.
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There’s not a whole lot to like about the two pitchers elected to start tonight’s game. If I had to pick one of them, it certainly wouldn’t be the White Sox right-hander. Lopez is too charitable for my liking with his free passes to first base for opposing hitters.
My model makes the White Sox a -151 favorite in tonight’s matchup. BetRivers is currently offering Chicago at -182 which is creating significant value on the dog.
With Fulmer likely to remain on a pitch count, I’ll instead look to target the underdog Tigers on the first five innings moneyline.
Using our BetLabs database, AL Central underdogs in a September divisional game facing an opposing starting pitcher with an ERA between 7.00 and 9.00 are 5-3-3 in the first five innings for 3.74 units.
Detroit’s success against Lopez and Fulmer’s efficiency against the White Sox lineup both support that BetLabs trend. So, I think we’ve got a live dog early in this matchup.
BetRivers has the best F5 price on the market with the Tigers at +135. I’ll risk half-a-unit on the dog and hope the bats are out early against Lopez tonight.
The Pick: Tigers first five-inning line (+135). Risking 0.5u. Play down to +130.