MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions (Saturday, Aug. 15): Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Photo by Adam Glanzman/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Nathan Eovaldi #17 of the Boston Red Sox
Red Sox vs. Yankees Betting Odds
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|Red Sox Odds||+138 [Bet Now]|
|Yankees Odds||-162 [Bet Now]|
|Over/Under||9 (-121/+100) [Bet Now]|
|First Pitch||7:07 p.m. ET|
The Yankees and Red Sox continue their divisional series tonight at 7 p.m. ET. New York leads the division with a 13-6 record and a .684 winning percentage and sits just one game behind the Oakland Athletics (14-6, .700 winning percentage) for the best record in the American League.
The average moneyline to back the Yankees this season is -183 and it’s -209 if you’re looking to back them at home. If you’re going to bet on this team then you’d better get creative. Yesterday, I eschewed their -310 odds and instead bet them on a prop at -107 that required them not only to win the game, but to score first.
I had to wait until only the bottom of the third for the Yankees to score first and they went on to win the game 10-3 without ever trailing or being tied in the contest.
The Yankees are now 7-1 at home and 4-0 against the Red Sox this season.
I’m not sure I’d recommend getting in front of this money train, but if there was ever a time they’d be vulnerable at home, it would be tonight.
New York Yankees
James Paxton will get the ball in the second game of the four-game series against the Red Sox. Through his career he’s had success against Boston, going 5-1 with a 3.23 ERA in nine starts. Those numbers are a sharp contrast to how he’s fared this season.
In three starts this year, Paxton is 0-1 with a 7.84 ERA. The Yankees are 1-2 in those starts with both losses occurring on the road and the lone win (9-7) ironically coming at home against the Red Sox in a game in which he lasted only three innings.
In 120 at-bats, this current Red Sox lineup is hitting .292 against Paxton with a .362 WOBA and .836 OPS. It has also connected on four home runs against the Yankee lefty.
Much of the talk around Paxton this season is that his velocity is noticeably down. Last year, Paxton’s fastball was averaging around 95 mph, yet this season it’s around 92 mph. Studies have shown that a starter’s run average can increase by about .25 for every mph lost off his fastball. This bears watching considering that last season Paxton finished the season with a 3.82 ERA.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox will counter with Nathan Eovaldi on Saturday night. Eovaldi is 1-1 with a 4.09 ERA in four starts this season. More importantly, Boston is 3-1 in his starts and he’s been able to pitch a minimum of five innings in each start.
Eovaldi is a bulldog. He’s a fearless competitor and is no stranger to pitching in New York after spending two seasons (2015-2016) with the Yankees before he was unceremoniously released while nursing an injury.
Who could forget the 2018 Divisional Playoffs when Eovaldi got his revenge against the Yankees by throwing seven innings of one-run ball in a dominant 16-1 win that helped usher the Yankees out of the postseason.
In his career, Eovaldi is 1-1 with a 1.95 ERA in five starts against the Yankees. While New York’s current lineup has only 78 at-bats against the Boston right-hander, it is hitting just .192 against him with a meager .232 OBP and .244 SLG. Of its 15 hits, none of those resulted in a trip around the bases for a home run.
When you factor in the Red Sox hitting against left-handed pitching plus the quality of their starting pitcher and sprinkle in a little motivation, there’s enough to get me to back the underdogs in this matchup. If you’re an unbiased fan and had to pick between one of the starting pitchers tonight given their current form, I think most people pick Eovaldi as their guy.
With the current odds of+148, I think the Red Sox have better than a puncher’s chance in the game. I especially like my chances more if I limit my wager to the first five innings where I can take both bullpens out of the equation and essentially pit the the starters against one another.
DraftKings is offering a first five moneyline on the Red Sox at +140. If the game remains tied after five innings then my bet will simply be graded as a push.
I’ll bank on Eovaldi to stay sharp against his former team and the Red Sox bats to provide the support while staying hot against left-handed pitching. I’m comfortable playing this down to -128.
The Pick: Red Sox First Five Innings (+140) [Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]