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Rockies vs. Astros Odds & Pick (Monday, Aug. 17): Back Colorado Against Disastrous Houston Bullpen

Rockies vs. Astros Odds & Pick (Monday, Aug. 17): Back Colorado Against Disastrous Houston Bullpen article feature image

Justin Edmonds/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Freeland and Tony Wolters

  • Check out our betting preview for Monday's MLB matchup between the Colorado Rockies and Houston Astros.
  • Colorado's batting lineup is rolling at the moment, while Houston's bullpen injuries continue to pile up.
  • Below, you'll find our full game breakdown, including odds, picks, and predictions for tonight's matchup.

Rockies vs. Astros Betting Odds

Rockies Odds +135 [Bet Now]
Astros Odds -150 [Bet Now]
Over/Under 9.5 (-110/-110) [Bet Now]
Time 9:10 p.m. ET

Odds as of Monday at 10:50 a.m. ET and via BetMGM. Get up to a $500 risk-free bet at BetMGM today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Market Analysis

This game is seeing almost perfectly split betting across the two major types — 51% of moneyline bettors have taken the Rockies and over/under bets are split 50-50. And while the moneyline is acting more or less accordingly (the market has inched a few cents toward Houston), the total has gone on a bit of a ride since it opened.

As evidenced by two Sports Insights Bet Signals — which track and record instances of market movement caused by sharp action — pro bettors were quick to pounce on an opening total of 9, sending books up to 9.5, and even 10 for a brief time. In fact, a third SI Bet Signal hit the over on a juice-free 10.

That, however, was the last time any sharp action came the over’s way. Since, then, the total has come back to 9.5 as 93% of money — despite just the 50% of tickets — has landed on the under.

Could sharps have been setting up sportsbooks by pushing the total upward only to come back and place their biggest bets on the under? It’s certainly possible.

Could there just be disagreement among the sharp betting community? Also possible.

In any case, the next move on the total — if there is one — will probably be the most telling. — Danny Donahue

Betting Pick

Colorado has been absolutely ripping the ball in 2020. It ranks fourth in MLB in terms of wOBA (.337). Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story have been on fire, combining for 18 home runs and 54 RBIs to begin the year.

Kyle Freeland has been okay through his first four starts of the season, allowing a 4.46 xFIP. He doesn’t have any pitches that I would consider above-average and he’s prone to giving up a lot of hard-hit balls. In 2019, he ranked in the bottom-20 of all qualified pitchers with a 40.5% hard-hit rate. The Astros have been hitting lefties pretty well to begin 2020, so Freeland will have a task ahead of him on Monday.

Brandon Bielak may have a 1.76 ERA through his first 15.1 innings in the big leagues, but he’s been really fortunate, as his xFIP is 4.60. Bielak doesn’t project out well either with a FIP well over 5. The reason Bielak was moved into the starting rotation is due the Astros having a multitude of injuries on their pitching staff, so under normal circumstances, I don’t think Bielak would be in their starting rotation.

The Astros’ bullpen is also a disaster right now. They collectively have a 5.22 xFIP to start the season, which ranks 26th in MLB. They’ve had a multitude of injuries and it’s now down to Ryan Pressley and a bunch of rookies.

Even though Freeland is a below-average pitcher, I really like the Rockies price at +145 (DraftKings) given how great their offense is and how much of a disaster Houston’s pitching staff is at the moment. — BJ Cunningham

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

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