Giants vs. Phillies MLB Odds & Picks: Back Philly’s Bats To Keep Thriving at Home (Monday, April 19)
Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: Bryce Harper.
- The Phillies welcome former manager Gabe Kapler's Giants to Citizens Bank Park on Monday night for a series opener.
- Philadelphia has thrived at home this year compared to some big-time struggles on the road.
- Mike Ianniello breaks down how that translates to betting value against Kevin Gausman.
Giants vs. Phillies Odds
|Time||Monday, 7:05 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Sunday and via FanDuel|
After avoiding a sweep on Sunday in Miami, the San Francisco Giants head north to Philadelphia to take on the Phillies for a three-game series.
Giants manager Gabe Kapler will make his return to Citizens Bank Park for the first time since the former Phillies skipper was fired after two seasons with the club in 2019. The Phillies went 161-163 and failed to reach the postseason in the two years under Kapler.
The Phillies are coming off a phenomenal performance on Sunday from Aaron Nola, who threw a complete-game shutout to help the Phillies take two out of three over the Cardinals.
Let’s dig into Monday’s matchup to find the betting value.
San Francisco Giants
The Giants will have Opening Day starter Kevin Gausman on the mound for his fourth start of 2021. The right-hander has yet to factor into a decision, despite tossing two quality starts and registering a 3.20 ERA.
Last season, Gausman bounced back from a rough 2019, when he posted a 5.72 ERA over 31 appearances (17 starts). In 2020, his first season with the Giants, he improved his ERA to 3.62 and his strikeout rate jumped from 25.3% to 32.2%, a career high.
The former fourth overall pick is one of those pitchers whose stuff seems to be better than his results. Gausman’s best pitch is his nasty splitter. He has yet to allow a hit against his splitter this season, striking out 47.8% with the pitch.
The reason Gausman is yet to register a win this season is the lack of run support from the Giants. San Francisco ranks 29th in runs per game, 28th in batting average and 26th in wRC+. It was held to just one run in two of its three games against the Marlins.
The biggest surprise for the Giants early in the season has been the reassurance of 35-year-old Evan Longoria, who is batting .304 and leads the club in hits, runs, RBI and home runs.
The Phillies will give Chase Anderson the ball for his third start of the season. Philadelphia’s No. 5 starter is 0-1 with a 4.00 ERA, throwing nine total innings and giving up two runs in each of his first two outings.
Anderson was the victim of incredible bad luck last year in his lone season with the Blue Jays. Despite having a career best, 10.16 strikeouts per nine innings, he posted a 7.22 ERA, although he had an xFIP of 4.09.
Batters are hitting just .156 against Anderson this year, and he has a 4.00 ERA and 6.71 FIP. Hopefully he is seeing the positive regression that is due from what he experienced last season.
Anderson has a great cutter and changeup and has allowed just one hit off of those two pitches this year. He throws his changeup 31.8% of the time and his cutter 23.4%.
The Phillies’ lineup is one of the deepest in baseball with J.T. Realmuto, Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, Didi Gregorius and Jean Segura all sporting a wRC+ over 100.
Segura has been especially great to start the year. “Mean Jean the Hit Machine” is batting .352, good for 12th in the majors. Bryce Harper is currently 11th with a .439 on-base percentage and leads all of baseball in xwOBA.
It has been a tale of two cities for the Phillies this year. They are 7-2 in Philadelphia this season and 1-5 anywhere else. The Phils have averaged 4.56 runs per game at home and 2.67 on the road.
Philadelphia ranks 25th in the league with a .200 batting average in away games and sixth in the league at home with a .263 batting average at Citizens Bank Park.
Luckily for the Phillies, this game takes place on Broad Street. On top of that, Philadelphia’s lineup has had success against Gausman in the past. They have a .276 batting average and .330 wOBA against him. Segura is 5-for-10 with two doubles against Gausman, and Harper has a .417 average in 17 plate appearances with a home run against the San Francisco starter.
Philadelphia has been the City of Brotherly Love for the Phillies. Despite San Francisco having the advantage in starting pitchers, the Giants have really struggled to hit the ball this season. The way the Phillies have hit the ball at home this year, I am backing the better offense over the better pitcher.
Pick: Phillies -108 (play to -115)
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