Happy Labor Day! We have several early-afternoon games to kick off the week and enjoy this holiday, but we'll also cover two night contests.
Check out our 5 MLB Best Bets Today, including picks for Braves vs Phillies, Reds vs Dodgers, and Blue Jays vs Athletics on Monday, September 7.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:05 PM | |
  | 1:35 PM | |
  | 5:10 PM | |
  | 9:10 PM | |
  | 10:05 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tony Sartori's Braves vs Phillies Best Bet
By Tony Sartori
Even if the hitting edge goes slightly to the Atlanta Braves, the discrepancy is thin. This season, both teams rank in the top 10 in runs scored per game.
Regardless, the pitching gap between these teams is far greater in this matchup, with Atlanta's Grant Holmes slated to face Philadelphia's Jesús Luzardo. Statistically, Luzardo ranks ahead of Holmes in wins, ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts.
That said, the gap in their underlying metrics is even wider. Entering this matchup, Luzardo ranks ahead of Holmes in xERA, xBA, xSLG, and average exit velocity.
Pick: Phillies Moneyline (-160)
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Nick Galaida's Guardians vs Orioles Best Bet
By Nick Galaida
The Guardians face a tough travel spot this afternoon, with a day game in Baltimore after playing at home over the weekend. They are also coming off an emotional walk-off win in front of their fans, so this could be a letdown spot for a few reasons.
Cleveland’s bats have struggled against southpaws lately, ranking 24th in wRC+ across the last 14 days.
The Orioles have a rested arm barn heading into the new week, but Trevor Rogers routinely works deep into games. He starts today and should have every opportunity to get through six innings.
Pick: Trevor Rogers Over 17.5 Outs (-160)
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Action PRO's Nationals vs Padres Largest Prop Edge
By Action PRO
MLB Prop Projections has Nick Pivetta as the largest prop edge for this matchup.
The model projects the Padres starter for 4.99 strikeouts against the Nationals today, giving us a solid 9.3% edge when compared to his current prop line of over/under 4.5, which is good enough to tag the over with a B grade in our system.
Pivetta is being activated from the IL today to start this game, and in his three previous outings, he struck out eight batters in the two contests where he completed five innings, while getting four Ks in just three IP in his last start.
Pick: Nick Pivetta Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+115)
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BARTOLO's Reds vs Dodgers Projection
By Sean Zerillo
Sean Zerillo's projections show solid value on the total for this Reds vs. Dodgers matchup, with a 7.7% edge on the under.
BARTOLO projects the Reds for 3.46 runs and the Dodgers for 3.87 tonight, which would bring the total under the line.
If you want to dive deeper into this matchup, it'd be wise to check out Zerillo's new PRO baseball tool that gives you access to all the input data he uses to project games every day.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-115)
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Charlie Wright's Blue Jays vs Athletics Best Bet
Both of these pitchers are on tremendous runs. Blue Jays SP Dylan Cease has a 1.36 ERA since the start of July. He's right with Cam Schlittler in the AL Cy Young race. Athletics starter Jacob Lopez has allowed two earned runs or fewer in all nine starts since returning to the rotation.
The question here is Sacramento. This line might be overweighting the venue.
The A's are 19th in wRC+ against RHP at home since the start of July. Lopez has a 2.60 ERA in five home starts since regaining a starting gig.
These two arms can handle the tough environment.
Pick: F5 Under 4.5 (-128)
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