On this Labor Day, the three players I am targeting are Brayan Bello, Luke Keaschall, and Dylan Cease.
Check out my favorite MLB player prop picks today for Monday, September 7.
MLB Player Props Today
- Brayan Bello Over 1.5 Earned Runs (59%, Kalshi)
- Luke Keaschall Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In (51%, Kalshi)
- Dylan Cease Over 7.5 Strikeouts (45%, Kalshi)
Angels vs Red Sox Player Prop
Am I really interested in backing the Angels? Not really, but Brayan Bello's splits as a starter and bulk reliever are too hard to ignore.
The 27-year-old entered this season with just three career relief appearances and coming off a season in which he had a 3.35 ERA, 124 ERA+, and 2.2 WAR. However, this season, he has a 10.35 ERA and 2.215 WHIP as a starter compared to a 2.03 ERA and 1.03 WHIP when pitching out of the bullpen, usually following an opener.
Bello has allowed two earned runs in all eight of his starts this season and three earned runs in seven of them. Of the 41 earned runs Bello has allowed as a starter, 15 have come in the first inning, along with four home runs allowed, a .432 opposing batting average, and a 1.328 OPS.
The Angels were shut out twice over the weekend in Pittsburgh, but they have scored three runs in four of their last six games.
Despite being shut out yesterday, Zach Neto and Mike Trout accounted for three of their five hits on the afternoon. They figure to occupy the top two spots in their lineup once again, and right-handed hitters are hitting .288 against Bello this season.
Given Bello's first-inning struggles, this could be a quick cash if the Angels push across two runs in the first. I still have this line playable at 2.5.
Pick: Brayan Bello Over 1.5 Earned Runs (59%, Kalshi)
Twins vs Tigers Player Prop
Tigers SP Troy Melton has gotten off to a great start in his career with a 2.37 ERA in the first 33 games of his career, 21 of which were starts. His ERA for this season just went over 2.00 in his last outing as he allowed five earned runs against Minnesota in his last outing.
The Twins have been one of the few teams to get to Melton this season, as he allowed 14 hits, 11 runs (nine earned), and a .311 opposing batting average in two starts.
Luke Keaschall has a hit in each of Melton's starts against the Twins and is 3-for-5 with a double and an RBI against him. Also in his second season, the right fielder has enjoyed playing the Tigers in his young career. He has a hit in 14 of 15 career games against them while slashing .364/.462/.545 with two home runs, 14 RBI, and 12 runs scored.
As a result, he has recorded two hits, runs, and RBIs in 12 of 15 games against the Tigers while averaging 3.1 per game. He has also cleared this line in seven of his last 10 games, including three against the Tigers in Minnesota.
In Detroit for this series, I like him to get there again.
Pick: Luke Keaschall Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In (51%, Kalshi)
Blue Jays vs Athletics Player Prop
Heading into his last start, Dylan Cease had recorded six strikeouts in 19 consecutive starts. While he still pitched well, the Blue Jays starter only had four strikeouts in six shutout innings against the Guardians last time out. Still, he is averaging 8.6 strikeouts over his last 20 starts and 8.5 per game for the season. Tonight, he has a solid matchup to bounce back in the strikeout department.
Against right-handed pitchers, the A's are 15th in strikeout rate for the season, but they are fifth over the last two weeks. Jeff McNeil is a tough strikeout to get at the top of the lineup, but Henry Bolte, Lawrence Butler, Zach Gelof, and Max Muncy each have a strikeout rate of 25.1% or higher.
Cease sits in the 99th percentile in strikeout rate this season at 35.5%, and he has struck out 31.9% of the current A's he has faced.
Within the last week, Jacob DeGrom, Bryan Woo, and Logan Gilbert all fanned eight or more against the Athletics. All of them are high-level strikeout artists, along with Cease, who has recorded 200 Ks in each of the last six seasons. With seven strikeouts tonight, he will set a new career-high, but Cease could have higher aspirations tonight.
He's in a tight battle with Cam Schlitter for the AL Cy Young. The Yankees pitcher has maintained his status as the favorite for much of the last few months and is coming off an outing with nine strikeouts in eight innings while allowing just two hits and one run.
Cease will need to match him to keep pace, which could bring his ladder into play. He has recorded 10 strikeouts or more in nine starts this season.
Pick: Dylan Cease Over 7.5 Strikeouts (45%, Kalshi)
