MLB Daily Betting Model, 5/15: Who Has the Edge as Mets Face Patrick Corbin for Third Time?
Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Patrick Corbin
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps to find edges in betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the full slate of games on May 15 with his model below, and highlights Mets-Nationals (7:05 p.m. ET) and Rangers-Royals (8:15 p.m. ET) as potential edges.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the prince who was promised, hit his first career major league home run last night. He launched a ball at 112 mph, 438 feet to dead center field at one of the more difficult parks to hit a home run at:
In the sixth inning, he put the game to out of reach:
There was no silent treatment for the young slugger. His teammates showered him with praise:
8Also, it was Bark in the Park night in Cincinnati and some good baseball dogs were out in full force. I’ve neglected my duties of providing full coverage of good baseball dog action this season and will attempt to do better in the future to ensure that those needs are met.
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 1-1 against full-game moneylines and 0-1 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
My tracked plays went 3-5, as I bet the Cardinals twice, and I was down 0.61 units for the day.
Monday was a mostly positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 18 cents on the Reds moneyline (+115 to -103), 15 cents on the Astros F5 spread (-125 to -140), 5 cents on the Athletics moneyline (-110 to -115), a couple of pennies on the Cardinals (-121 to -123), and only lost 6 cents on the Padres moneyline (+140 to +146)
On Deck for Wednesday, May 15
The model recommends four full-game moneylines on Wednesday.