MLB Daily Betting Model, 5/15: Who Has the Edge as Mets Face Patrick Corbin for Third Time?
Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Patrick Corbin
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps to find edges in betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the full slate of games on May 15 with his model below, and highlights Mets-Nationals (7:05 p.m. ET) and Rangers-Royals (8:15 p.m. ET) as potential edges.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the prince who was promised, hit his first career major league home run last night. He launched a ball at 112 mph, 438 feet to dead center field at one of the more difficult parks to hit a home run at:
Vlad Guerrero Jr. went YARD on his first career homer 💪
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) May 15, 2019
In the sixth inning, he put the game to out of reach:
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) May 15, 2019
There was no silent treatment for the young slugger. His teammates showered him with praise:
— Adrian Garro (@adriangarro) May 15, 2019
8Also, it was Bark in the Park night in Cincinnati and some good baseball dogs were out in full force. I’ve neglected my duties of providing full coverage of good baseball dog action this season and will attempt to do better in the future to ensure that those needs are met.
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 1-1 against full-game moneylines and 0-1 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
My tracked plays went 3-5, as I bet the Cardinals twice, and I was down 0.61 units for the day.
Monday was a mostly positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 18 cents on the Reds moneyline (+115 to -103), 15 cents on the Astros F5 spread (-125 to -140), 5 cents on the Athletics moneyline (-110 to -115), a couple of pennies on the Cardinals (-121 to -123), and only lost 6 cents on the Padres moneyline (+140 to +146)
On Deck for Wednesday, May 15
The model recommends four full-game moneylines on Wednesday.
As of writing, the 4% trigger threshold officially marked the Colorado Rockies, Detroit Tigers, New York Mets and St. Louis Cardinals as the full-game plays.
I’ll happily take each of the Cardinals, Mets and Rockies at plus-money. I also added the Texas Rangers at a 3% edge against the Royals.
I’ve made no secret of my love for Mike Minor as he continues his career resurgence, but the Rangers offense is also in a good spot against Jorge Lopez. With multiple power lefties at the top of their lineup (alongside an on-fire Hunter Pence), the Rangers rank sixth in wOBA against right-handed pitching (.337), but 17th against lefties (.317).
Lopez has been lit up by lefties in 2019, allowing a .432 wOBA with five doubles and six home runs allowed in 16.2 innings pitched. His career split also favors left-handed hitters: .365 vs. LHH and .343 against RHH.
The Mets, who have mashed left-handed pitching this season (fifth in wRC+ and seventh in wOBA), will take on Patrick Corbin and the Nationals, facing Corbin for the third time in 2019. He tossed quality starts in each of the first two outings but didn’t record a decision in either.
Corbin’s 2018 breakout was of interest to me because he scrapped his changeup at the expense of a slow curveball, essentially using the curveball as an off-speed version of his slider:
Patrick Corbin, Disgusting 3 Pitch K (66mph Curveball & 2 Swords on Sliders). 😧⚔️⚔️ pic.twitter.com/XR3NxtAlm8
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 18, 2019
However, the Nationals rank 30th in bullpen ERA (6.20), with a 1.93 strikeout to walk ratio, both well below major league averages (4.36, 2.37).
They’ve also played some of the worst team defense in baseball, ranking 27th by FanGraphs adjusted defensive metrics. That being said, the Mets are one spot behind them at 28th.
Wilmer Font also looked confident in his first start with the Mets, hitting the zone 50% of the time and recording first-pitch strikes against two-thirds of the batters that he faced:
I’ll also play the Rockies today with their best pitcher, German Marquez, facing someone that isn’t Chris Sale.
And I’ll take the Cardinals, despite the fact that Michael Wacha’s xwOBA has been around .350 for two straight seasons, suggesting an expected ERA of about 5.48. The Braves bullpen has been beset by injuries, and the Cardinals lineup has scored 14, 10 and 17 runs in three of their past five games.
Lastly, I took Tampa Bay on both the F5 and game spreads against the Miami Marlins. Tampa Bay has continued to cover the runline when they win games, maintaining an identical 25-15 record in both categories. They’re worth playing today at a short price against one of the worst teams in baseball.
The Marlins have been the second-worst team against the runline, at 14-26, covering the spread just 35% of the time, with an average margin of -2.4 runs.
Bets (So Far) for May 15
- Colorado Rockies (+137) Game Moneyline
- New York Mets (+148) Game Moneyline
- St. Louis Cardinals (+131) Game Moneyline
- Tampa Bay Rays (-0.5, -125) F5 Spread
- Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5, -110) Game Spread
- Texas Rangers (-125) Game Moneyline
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 5/15
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.