Wilson’s MLB Umpire Betting Guide (5/15): Lifeless Marlins Struggle with Southpaws
Patrick McDermott-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Brian O’Nara and Elvis Andrus
When you take an under, the sweat of a tie ball game is always in play. This was true with our Action App play of Seattle-Oakland under 9 on Monday night. Cruising with a 4-1 lead in the 8th with two runners on, Lou Trivino served up a 98 mph fastball to Daniel Vogelbach.
— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) May 14, 2019
As an under 9 bettor, the best you could hope for was a push, but a final score of 6-5 in extra’s would give us a losing ticket. Our trust in umpire trends generated the play, with D.J. Reyburn one of the best under officials.
Even though there were just five runs going into the bottom of the 8th, the logic does not always produce winning results. Hopefully bullpens learn not to go with the heater down the pipe on the first pitch to Vogelbach in the future.
Before diving into the analysis below, be sure to check out colleague Danny Donahue’s complementary piece about the importance of monitoring the boys in blue. This column will integrate advanced stats on projected pitchers and hitting lineups to help get wagers to the window. As always, check the Action App for my latest MLB bets.
Find all MLB umpire assignments and betting records here.
Umpire Betting Trends
Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins
Umpire: Pat Hoberg
- Home Record: 75-75, 50.0% (-9.79 units)
- Under Record: 70-71, 49.7% (-6.04 units)
- Odds: Rays -175
- Total: 7.5
- Time: 7:05 p.m. EST
- Projected Wind: Inward from center field, 7 mph
While Pat Hoberg’s total splits do not have a significant projection in either direction, there is indication that visiting teams have the advantage. That is music to the Rays ears, as they will go with a bullpen game started by Ryan Stanek then led by lefty Jalen Beeks in the middle innings. The Rays bulk reliever will have tremendous splits against a lifeless Marlins offense.
Marlins at 10-30, and could reach triple digits in run differential today.
Runs scored: 105
Runs allowed: 200
They've been outhomered 55-24.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) May 15, 2019
Miami’s numbers are worse against lefties. Against southpaws, the Marlins are in the bottom 3 of advanced categories like wRC+, wOBA, ISO and strikeout percentage.
On the flip side, the Rays rank in the top 10 in most of those advanced categories against righties like Jose Urena, who the Marlins will throw out there on Wednesday.
Blue Bet: Rays -175
Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals
Umpire: Brian O’Nora
- Home Team Record: 232-185, 55.6% (15.54 units)
- Away Team Record: 206-191, 51.9% (-0.89 units)
- Odds: Rangers -135
- Total: 9
- Time: 8:15 p.m. EST
- Projected Wind: Right to left, 7 mph
There is an argument amongst the Action Network staff about the best BBQ in the United States. Editor PJ Walsh pines for the Carolinas, BetLabs’ savant John Ewing represents St. Louis, while Executive Editor Scott Miller and myself lobby that Kansas City is the king of BBQ.
Umpire Brian O’Nora will certainly be in favor of Q39, Joe’s and Gates BBQ on Wednesday, with a strong trend towards the home team in games he calls … except in Denver. He may not like the cuisine there.
Backing the Royals takes plenty of intestinal fortitude, but a visit from Mike Minor may be that opportunity. The Rangers pitcher has had a fabulous season until taking on a loaded lineup with Houston in his last outing.
There is a stark contrast in his efficiency between left and right handed hitters. Every home run against Minor has been against right handed batters this season.
Kansas City’s best bats like Adalberto Mondesi, Hunter Dozier, and Whit Merrifield should produce for the Royals (and make a cheap DFS add).
Blue Bet: Royals +120 and Team Total Over