Wilson’s MLB Umpire Betting Guide (5/15): Lifeless Marlins Struggle with Southpaws


Patrick McDermott-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Brian O’Nara and Elvis Andrus

May 15, 2019, 09:47 AM EDT

When you take an under, the sweat of a tie ball game is always in play. This was true with our Action App play of Seattle-Oakland under 9 on Monday night. Cruising with a 4-1 lead in the 8th with two runners on, Lou Trivino served up a 98 mph fastball to Daniel Vogelbach.

As an under 9 bettor, the best you could hope for was a push, but a final score of 6-5 in extra’s would give us a losing ticket. Our trust in umpire trends generated the play, with D.J. Reyburn one of the best under officials.

Even though there were just five runs going into the bottom of the 8th, the logic does not always produce winning results. Hopefully bullpens learn not to go with the heater down the pipe on the first pitch to Vogelbach in the future.

Before diving into the analysis below, be sure to check out colleague Danny Donahue’s complementary piece about the importance of monitoring the boys in blue. This column will integrate advanced stats on projected pitchers and hitting lineups to help get wagers to the window. As always, check the Action App for my latest MLB bets.

Find all MLB umpire assignments and betting records here.

Umpire Betting Trends

Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins

Umpire: Pat Hoberg

  • Home Record: 75-75, 50.0% (-9.79 units)
  • Under Record: 70-71, 49.7% (-6.04 units)
  • Odds: Rays -175
  • Total: 7.5
  • Time: 7:05 p.m. EST
  • Projected Wind: Inward from center field, 7 mph

While Pat Hoberg’s total splits do not have a significant projection in either direction, there is indication that visiting teams have the advantage. That is music to the Rays ears, as they will go with a bullpen game started by Ryan Stanek then led by lefty Jalen Beeks in the middle innings. The Rays bulk reliever will have tremendous splits against a lifeless Marlins offense.

Miami’s numbers are worse against lefties. Against southpaws, the Marlins are in the bottom 3 of advanced categories like wRC+, wOBA, ISO and strikeout percentage.

On the flip side, the Rays rank in the top 10 in most of those advanced categories against righties like Jose Urena, who the Marlins will throw out there on Wednesday.

Blue Bet: Rays -175

Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals

Umpire: Brian O’Nora

model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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