MLB Daily Betting Model, 6/11: Press With Diamondbacks Against Jake Arrieta?
Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Jake Arrieta
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the full slate of games on June 11 with his model below and highlights Diamondbacks-Phillies (7:05 p.m. ET) and Reds-Indians (7:10 p.m. ET) as potential edges.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
On Tuesday, the Phillies and Diamondbacks combined for a major league record 13 home runs:
— MLB Stats (@MLBStats) June 11, 2019
Ian Desmond also hit a go-ahead, pinch-hit home run to the summit of the Rocky Mountains:
Ian Desmond's 486 ft homer is the longest by any player this season. 😱 pic.twitter.com/WPmFEZ4lb8
— MLB Stats (@MLBStats) June 11, 2019
The ball is totally fine though, nothing to see here.
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 2-2 against full-game moneylines, and 0-2 against first-five innings moneylines (F5).
My tracked plays went 3-3 and I finished up 0.13 units for the day.
It was a negative day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I lost 20 cents against the Angels moneyline (+150 to +170), and two cents against the Cubs moneyline (+115 to +117).
MLB Betting Model for Tuesday, June 11
The model recommends four full-game moneylines and six moneylines for the first-five innings (F5) on Tuesday.
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Marlins, Rangers, Tigers and White Sox as full-game plays. It also likes the the Marlins, Tigers and White Sox, in addition to the Minnesota Twins, New York Mets (Game 1) and San Diego Padres as F5 plays.
I skipped only the Marlins and White Sox — playing the Rangers and Tigers on the full-game moneyline, taking the Mets F5 moneyline and the Padres and Twins against the F5 spread instead of laying big juice.
I also played the Cincinnati Reds when they were priced at an edge of over 4%, and played the Arizona Diamondbacks as a result of a smaller edge combined with professional signals.
Rookie Jon Duplantier has pitched well for Arizona in big spots in 2019, and has been successful in his first two career major league starts against the Mets (5 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 4 K) and Dodgers (5 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 7 K).
He can elevate his fastball (93 mph) before coming back at you with his slider (plus pitch), curveball and changeup.
Jake Arrieta has statistically eroded over the past few seasons since his average fastball velocity dropped from 94.3 mph in 2016 to 92.5 mph in 2017. It remains at 92.9 mph this season.
Arrieta’s swinging strike rate immediately declined by 2% after the velocity drop. In 2019 its down another tick to 7.5%.
He’s actually increased his first-pitch strike rate over the past two years (from 58% to 62%), but he simply cannot avoid hard contact. Arrieta’s rate of hard contact allowed is up nearly 9% from his career average.
After maintaining an above average xwOBA for the past two seasons it’s dropped off of a cliff in 2019 (from .312 in 2018 to .349 in 2019), and his xwOBA on contact is up from .343 career to .397 this season.
Arrieta sports a 5.11 FIP, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is barely over 2.00. Unless he finds a way to reinvent himself once again, this could mark the beginning of the end for the 2015 NL Cy Young Award Winner.
The last pitcher who I want to comment on for today is Ariel Jurado of the Texas Rangers. Texas and Boston have an identical run differential (+33), and if the season ended today Texas would be in the Wild Card (against the Yankees) over both Boston and Cleveland.
Jurado showed good control (1.50 BB/9 at Double-A in 2018) but had very low strikeout totals in the high minor leagues. But something might have clicked for the 23-year-old this season (his velocity is up from 91.8 mph to 92.9 mph, for example).
Jurado was dominant over four starts at Triple-A, with 22 strikeouts and two walks in 22.2 innings pitched, and he comes into Boston tonight on the heels of three straight quality starts; striking out six batters in each of his past two outings.
He also generates a lot of weak contact, with a 52% groundball rate, 9.2% popup rate and an above average xwOBA thanks to his heavy sinker, which he throws over half of the time:
Bets (So Far) for June 11
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+117) Game Moneyline
- Cincinnati Reds (+113) Game Moneyline
- Detroit Tigers (+130) Game Moneyline
- Minnesota Twins (-0.5, -115) F5 Spread
- New York Mets (+135) F5 Moneyline (Game 1)
- San Diego Padres (-0.5, -115) F5 Spread
- Texas Rangers (+160) Game Moneyline
- Under 9 (-102), Oakland at Tampa Bay
- Under 9 (-115), Milwaukee at Houston
- Under 10.5 (-110), Texas at Boston
- Under 12 (-110), Chicago at Colorado
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 6/11
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.