Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Kev has that job for Friday, June 26.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Detroit Tigers Moneyline (-104)
- Boston Red Sox Moneyline (+104)
- Braves/Giants Over 8.5 Total Runs (+100)
Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers Picks
Spencer Arrighetti is one of the luckier starting pitchers in baseball. His 3.13 ERA is backed by a poor 4.57 xERA, 4.57 xFIP, and 4.36 SIERA. Some pitchers can manage to pitch for months with luck like this, but regression always comes.
While Arrighetti has pitched better in recent starts, he has a notable trend this season.
- Arrighetti at home: 27.6% K, 8.1% BB, 0.96 WHIP, .283 wOBA, 3.93 xFIP
- Arrighetti on road: 20% K, 12.9% BB, 1.40 WHIP, .302 wOBA, 5.07 xFIP
Meanwhile, Keider Montero does not have significant home/road splits, but he does perform significantly better against right-handed hitters.
- Montero vs lefties: 13.8% K, 5.8% BB, 5.57 xFIP
- Montero vs righties: 20.3% K, 4.5% BB, 3.86 xFIP
The Astros' offense is one of the more prominent RHH lineups in baseball, with just three lefties in their regular lineup against RHP.
Furthermore, the Tigers' offense (105 wRC+) is better than the Astros' (97 wRC+) across the past month, and the Tigers' bullpen is fresher than the Astros' bullpen today. We are riding with the home favorites here.
Picks: Detroit Tigers Moneyline (-104)
New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Picks
Payton Tolle (3.08 ERA) and Will Warren (3.45 ERA) have both been excellent this season. Their respective breakouts are huge for each franchise.
Unfortunately, Warren's past 30 days have not been as dominant as his start to the season. He has thrown 20 IP since May 31, with a 3.15 ERA, backed by a 5.09 xERA and a 4.13 xFIP. These peripherals are much worse than his season-long 3.73 xERA and 3.64 xFIP.
Warren has struggled on the road this year. Three of his past four starts have been away from Yankee Stadium, which may explain the struggles.
- Warren at home: 30.4% K, 6.1% BB, 1.24 WHIP, 2.77 xFIP
- Warren on road: 18.2% K, 9.4% BB, 1.43 WHIP, 4.64 xFIP
Coincidentally, the Yankees' offense struggles on the road (102 wRC+) compared to home (126 wRC+, best in baseball).
On the opposing mound, Payton Tolle has excelled at home, with a 24.4% K-BB and 3.19 xFIP. The Red Sox offense is not better at home, but they have been hitting better lately.
Thanks to Caleb Durbin's recent hot streak, the Red Sox offense has been around league average in the past 14 days. After a surprising win over Cam Schlittler yesterday, expect them to command this series today as well.
Picks: Boston Red Sox Moneyline (+104)
Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants Picks
Reynaldo Lopez has been ushered back into the Braves' rotation after Atlanta lost Spencer Strider for at least the next two months. Lopez began the season as a starting pitcher, but was clearly struggling, despite a solid 3.72 ERA.
Since moving to the bullpen, Lopez owns a 3.27 ERA. However, his peripheral stats are each one full run above it. This follows suit with his season as a whole. Lopez's 3.50 ERA in 2026 is backed by a 4.64 xERA, 4.65 xFIP, and a 4.53 SIERA.
While the Giants' offense has been a running joke for most of this season, they own the best wRC+ (126) in the past month! On the opposing side, the Braves own the third-worst wRC+ (84) in this span.
However, the Braves did get Drake Baldwin back from the Injured List recently. His absence, along with that of superstar Ronald Acuna Jr., created a massive rift for Atlanta. They still rank poorly in the games since Baldwin has returned, but he has had two off days in a row to recalibrate.
Trevor McDonald could provide Atlanta with the jolt they need. His 4.93 ERA this season is backed by an xFIP and SIERA a full run below, but his xERA is a close 4.50.
Also, McDonald is teeing up balls in recent starts. He has allowed seven runs and six walks in his past two starts, with just five strikeouts in 6 2/3 IP against the Cubs and Marlins.
The Giants are thin in their bullpen today, too. Ryan Walker, Eric Miller, and Dylan Smith have all pitched in back-to-back games, while closer Caleb Kilian has pitched in two of the past three days.
With the wind blowing out at Oracle Park at over 10 MPH, there is a good chance we see the over in today's matchup.
Picks: Over 8.5 Total Runs (+100)
Kev's MLB Picks and Predictions for Friday, June 26
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Detroit Tigers Moneyline (-104)
- Boston Red Sox Moneyline (+104)
- Braves/Giants Over 8.5 Total Runs (+100)
