Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Matt Trollo has that job for Thursday, July 2.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Pirates +110, 0.5u (Bet to +105)
- Pirates/Phillies Over 9.5 (-124), 1u (Bet through 10)
- J.Misiorowski Over 9.5 Strikeouts +104, 0.5u (Bet to 100)
- C.Burns Over 7.5 Strikeouts +121, 0.5u (Bet to +110)
- B.Miller Over 6.5 Strikeouts +110, 1u (Bet to -150)
- W.Urena Over 4.5 Strikeouts -128, 0.64u (Bet to -150)
- Angels +177, 0.5u (Bet to +165)
- Angels/Mariners Under 7.5 (-110), 0.55u (Bet to -115)
- Dodgers Over 4.5 team total (-122), 1.22u (Bet to -150)
Pirates @ Phillies Picks
I’ve been a bit more aggressive pushing edges recently because halfway through the season, small sample sizes can no longer be brushed off and it seems as if the market has either been slow or reticent to react to certain traits.
One of those is the Pittsburgh offense.
They’re good. Not just better. Like, really good.
How does a 117 wRC+ against RHP sound?
There’s been some shuffling iof the lineup since the start of the season, so how about their standard or projected lineup against RHP now averaging a 135 wRC+ against pitchers from that side and a 133 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall?
How about the only batter in the projected lineup below a 100 wRC+ in either case is Brandon Lowe’s 79 wRC+ over the last month?
Esmerlyn Valdez has been incredibly destructive going into Wednesday night with a 209 wRC+ and .458 ISO in 54 plate appearances.
In contrast, the regular Philadelphia lineup (in which I project Rafael Marchan for the mid-week day game after night game) averages an 87 wRC+ against RHP with just three batters above 100: Kyle Schwarber (150), Bryce Harper (181) and Brandon Marsh (150).
Those three have been carrying this offense. If they don’t do it, it probably doesn’t get done, although Trea Turner has finally begun making a little bit of noise lately. The problem may be that he’s the only other batter in this lineup who has a track record without concern for aging curves (Realmuto).
As I have been throughout the series, I’m crediting the Pirates with a large 20+ point wRC+ edge.
They are, right now, on their way to their second loss in the first three games of this series, but it hasn’t been the offense. It’s their star pitchers like Braxton Ashcraft and Paul Skenes that have let them down. In fact, they’ve cut a six run deficit down to two as I’m writing this.
Considering Thursday’s pitchers, Jared Jones is bigger on talent than results, just six starts back from Tommy John surgery that cost him nearly a season and a half.
He’s been pitching to around four and a quarter overall (4.04 SIERA, 4.77 xERA, 4.10 Bot ERA, 109 Pitching+), much better than his 5.26 ERA, which has a lot to do with a .310 BABIP, 65.5 LOB% and five of seven barrels leaving the yard.
Opposing him, Alan Rangel, well…he’s just a guy. Twenty-eight years old with only 23 major league innings to his name and half of those in June because Taijuan Walker and Andrew Painter were so bad.
You can see via BARTOLO (hopefully embedded below this time), Rangel’s average projection is 4.84, more than half a run worse than Jones’s underlying metrics.
I cede that the Phillies certainly have the better bullpen, whether it’s by last 30 day estimators (FIP, xFIP, SIERA averages of 3.56 to 4.28) or BARTOLO ratings (again, hopefully above, but if not, still available for subscribers), where Philadelphia is ranked 3rd (3.45 wFIP) to Pittsburgh’s 21st (4.26 wFIP).
That doesn’t make up for all the other areas where the Pirates edge the Phillies on Thursday, including 8 FRV and 1 BRR via projected lineups.
Despite the bullpen issues, I’m endorsing the full game +110 price on the Pirates because it’s much better than their -114 F5 line.
But we’re not done yet.
Also, via BARTOLO, you may see that this game is forecast to begin at 100 degrees and it’s only supposed to get hotter from there.
BARTOLO Is also suggesting a greater than 15% boost from that forecast, which we can add to a park run environment already 4% above average and an umpire an additional 0.5% above average.
That’s, well, not quite Coors, but just about Sacramento territory.
Most sites are already up to 10 on this total and in that case I’d still play to win 0.5u, but FanDuel is still floating a 9.5 at -124, where I’d risk a full unit.
Picks: Pirates +110, 0.5u (Bet to +105), Over 9.5 (-124), 1u (Bet through 10)
Reds @ Brewers Picks
Here’s our insane number of the day.
Jacob Misiorowski has a 41.3 K% at home this season. Part of that is because 5% to 15% depending upon whether we’re talking about right or left-handed batters or whether the roof is open or closed.
Ever notice how the guys who leave the Brewers see their strikeout rates drastically decline: Freddy Peralta, Corbin Burnes, Devin Williams.
Considering the Brewers have kept the roof open for this series with temperatures near 90, I’m assuming they’ll keep it open once again for temperatures in the low 90s in the forecast for Thursday.
I project Misiorowski for about an 11-12% boost on Thursday from the park with a little weather mixed in, but that’s not where it ends.
Dan Merzel is scheduled to be behind the plate for this game and he generally adds an additional 6% boost to strikeouts.
If you want another ridiculous number, Misiorowski has struck out 47.9% of LHBs faced at home this year.
The Reds have been playing more LHBs (up to five) in recent weeks with TJ Friedl back and Edwin Arroyo getting starts along with Elly De La Cruz, J.J. Bleday and Nathaniel Lowe.
Misiorowski has a reverse split, but still dominates RHBs and is striking out 33.7% of them at home too.
The Reds? They also strike out a lot. Among the projected nine, Bleday (19.7%) is the only one below 20% this year against RHP. The lineup averages 24.3%.
There’s a guy pitching for the other team who’s pretty good too. Chase Burns has struck out 33% of LHBs this year and projects to see 15 of 23 batters from that side of the plate on Thursday with a weighted strikeout average of 22.7% against RHP.
Sal FrelicK (8.2%) and William Contreras (11.8%) are the only two below 21%.
He also projects to gain a nearly 20% park/umpire/weather boost.
I played both strikeout props in Wednesday’s game and split (Drohan had 15 whiffs, Abbott 9).
I’m going to play both again, partially because I really want to watch this matchup with an added rooting interest and what better than to root for these two phenoms to mow batters down?
I think the Miz can get to double digits and would rather take the +104 at 9.5 offered at DraftKings than the -156 at 8.5 on FanDuel, as well as Burns’ 7.5 +121 (DK) vs 6.5 (-154).
Yes, I absolutely realize how square this sounds, but its also going to be a lot of fun afternoon in the air conditioning rooting for strikeouts and profiting if we hit at least one.
Picks: J.Misiorowski Over 9.5 Strikeouts +104, 0.5u (Bet to 100), C.Burns Over 7.5 Strikeouts +121, 0.5u (Bet to +110)
Angels @ Mariners Picks
We’re going to break this game down to four potential bets, covering 2.5 units.
T-Mobile has regained it’s title as the most run suppressive park in baseball at 15% below average on average (Texas is currently 14% below average after a few higher scoring games last week). Weather is not expected to impact the game much, but scheduled umpire David Rackley adds another 1.5% suppression.
In addition to being the most negative run environment, Seattle increases LHB strikeouts by 15% and RHBs by 21%.
Projected lineups would give Walbert Urena a 17% park boost and Bryce Miller 19%. Rackley also adds another 4% in that department. That gets both pitchers to a more than 20% strikeout boost above an average park. That means five strikeouts turns into six.
Bryce Miller has been elite no matter where's pitched in 2026 with a 2.42 SIERA, 2.26 xERA, 2.92 Bot ERA and 120 Pitching+.
For some reason, they were intent on ruining his starts by piggybacking Luis Castillo after him, but that’s has been at least temporarily suspended. Miller has now thrown at least 90 pitches in three of his last four starts and I expect the same on Thursday.
While his overall 33.1 K% and 30.1 K-BB% are tremendous by any standard, he improves to 38.5% (34.6 K-BB%) at home this year.
Miller has struck out seven, seven and six in three home starts and did not reach 20 batters faced in any of those games.
He’s struck out batters from either side of the plate at 33% this season and that’s important here because the Angels have recently become more balanced in their lineup. However, they’re still striking out a ton with the projected lineup averaging 23.4%.
Our first play in this game and our only full unit one is for Miller to exceed his strikeout prop of 6.5 (+110). I would play this to -150 and even consider laddering to 9.
Urena isn’t a bad pitcher. His 3.14 ERA nearly matches a 3.24 xERA with terrific contact management (5.9% Barrels/BBE, 33.7 HardHit%), but contact neutral estimators approaching the mid-fours (4.40 SIERA, 4.24 xFIP) with just a 10.2 K-BB%.
The major problem is an 11.8 BB%.
However, he’s only walked four of his last 71 batters (three starts) while striking out 23.2% over his last seven starts. His 11.4 SwStr% suggests he has the potential to strike out around a quarter of the batters he faces if he sustains control improvements.
Urena’s 4.5 K-prop total is a number he’s exceeded in six of his last seven and now he gets a massive boost in his first start in Seattle, where the home team strikes out 24.1% of the time this year.
However, because the price is -128, we’re only playing to win a half unit here.
While Millers best price is at DraftKings as of this writing, Urena’s is at Fanduel.
We’re already mentioned the park run run suppression, along with the quality of the pitchers, so let’s continue along that path.
Both offenses play a bit above average mostly due to the Angels’ 113 wRC+ on the road and their projected lineup averaging a 132 wRC+ over the last month. They’re perfectly average against RHP (team 99 wRC+, projected LU 102).
The Mariners have a 111 wRC+ at home and 110 against RHIP with their lineup owning a 119 wRC+ against RHP, but just 103 over the last 30 days.
Both teams have comparable, bottom of the league defenses with projected lineups combining for -37 FRV.
The offenses and defenses are the only arguments for a higher scoring affair, but with the park, quality of the starting pitching and surprisingly, both bullpens, I’m locking in the under (7.5 -110).
I say surprising because while the Mariners (3.48 FIP, 4.06 xFIP, 3.82 SIERA L30 days) generally have a strong bullpen, the Angels (3.78, 3.74, 3.45) usually find themselves towards the bottom of the league.
BARTOLO ranks both bullpens in the middle of the league (Angels 20th, Mariners 18th), both with wFIPs within four points of 4.00.
I believe the pitching and the environment keep this a low scoring game.
That brings us to the last and probably weakest component of this matchup.
It gives me no great pleasure to endorse the Angels at +177 and I wouldn’t play it much lower, but considering the only major edge I give the home team is starting pitching (I have Miller a run ahead of Urena), I believe this price is just a bit aggressive.
BARTOLO has a wider offensive gap (17 points of wRC+) than I do between the offenses and that could be because of some smaller sample sizes for the road team, which are harder to project.
This is a more competitive and talented LAA team than they’ve been in recent years, which I know isn't saying all that much.
Picks: B.Miller Over 6.5 Strikeouts +110, 1u (Bet to -150), W.Urena Over 4.5 Strikeouts -128, 0.64u (Bet to -150), Angels +177, 0.5u (Bet to +165), Under 7.5 (-110), 0.55u (Bet to -115)
Padres @ Dodgers Picks
We’ll finish off with the simplest play on our list.
Dodgers Stadium, as a run environment, plays 4% above average. Difference weather sources suggest anywhere from a 3% boost to 5% suppression. We don’t have an umpire yet.
No matter where the numbers in the above paragraph end up, I still like the Dodgers to exceed their 4.5 run team total.
Let’s start with the opposing pitcher.
Randy Vasquez opened eyes in Spring Training when his velocity and whiffs spiked and he carried a lot of that into April, but by May, he was Randy Vasquez again.
In fact, since April 27th (11 outings – 10 starts + 1 behind an opener), he’s allowed 38 runs (34 earned) in 52.1 innings with a 5.0 K-BB% and 13.2% Barrels/BBE (48.9 HardHit%).
That’s a 5.60 xFIP and 8.63 xERA.
On the season, batters from both sides of the plate exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Vasquez is a launching pad.
The Dodger offense has a 124 wRC+ against RHP and are only a Will Smith short of their lineup being completely healthy. The projected lineup averages a 137 wRC+ against RHP this year and a 131 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
Kyle Tucker (100) has the lowest wRC+ in the projected lineup against RHP (assuming Betts, who was scratched late Wednesday is back in there). Nobody else is below 115.
Vasquez has faced the Dodgers twice, including last time out, allowing 10 runs (six earned) over just 7.2 innings. Twenty of 35 batted balls have been hard hit with seven barrels. That’s a barrel per inning.
We may get our five runs before Vasquez exits, but if we don’t it does get a bit more difficult.
The Padres boast a top quarter of the league defense with their projected lineup having accumulated 26 FRV (Fielding Run Value) already.
The San Diego bullpen is BARTOLO’s top ranked relief unit with a 3.40 wFIP, but they do have bottom half of the league estimators over the last 30 days (4.33 FIP, 4.16 xFIP, 3.83 SIERA).
Also, with Vasquez starting and the Dodgers more likely to be leading, we’re more likely to see the lower leverage San Diego relievers on Thursday. Mason Miller doesn’t pitch when the Padres are losing.
The Dodgers to exceed their 4.5 run team total (-122 FD) is my favorite bet of the day.
Picks: Dodgers Over 4.5 Team Total (-122), 1.22u (Bet to -150)
Trollo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Thursday, July 2
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Pirates +110, 0.5u (Bet to +105)
- Pirates/Phillies Over 9.5 (-124), 1u (Bet through 10)
- J.Misiorowski Over 9.5 Strikeouts +104, 0.5u (Bet to 100)
- C.Burns Over 7.5 Strikeouts +121, 0.5u (Bet to +110)
- B.Miller Over 6.5 Strikeouts +110, 1u (Bet to -150)
- W.Urena Over 4.5 Strikeouts -128, 0.64u (Bet to -150)
- Angels +177, 0.5u (Bet to +165)
- Angels/Mariners Under 7.5 (-110), 0.55u (Bet to -115)
- Dodgers Over 4.5 team total (-122), 1.22u (Bet to -150)
