MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks For Tuesday: Fade Aaron Nola & Jacob deGrom (May 4)
Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: Jacob deGrom.
Editor’s Note: Jacob deGrom has been scratched from Tuesday’s start against the St. Louis Cardinals.
With a small slate of games, there are not that many props to choose from. On Tuesday, there are two strikeout prop unders that I like on strong pitchers.
For this article I will be evaluating my favorite MLB player props based on what my model likes and what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes. The Action Labs Player Prop tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade. I will be adding my own personal grades as well.
Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I am playing, the case for each bet, and the best books to find odds on those player props.
2021 MLB Pitcher Prop Record: 23-17, +2.52 Units, +6.3% ROI (My action can be followed on the Action App at BoogieDownPicks).
MLB Player Props & Picks
Aaron Nola (PHI) Under 8.5 Strikeouts (-160)
|Brewers vs. Phillies||Phillies -154|
|Time||7:05 p.m. ET|
Aaron Nola is the ace of the Philadelphia Phillies’ starting rotation. Not only is Nola a good pitcher, but he typically pitches for many innings and he strikeouts batters at a decent rate. Additionally, the opposing Milwaukee Brewers have a strikeout prone lineup.
The question for Monday is whether Nola will pitch enough innings to have nine or more strikeouts.
In six starts this season, Nola is averaging almost 6 1/3 innings per start and he has a strikeout rate of 9.32 strikeouts per nine innings. Last season he had a strikeout rate of 12.11 per nine innings. For Nola to have nine strikeouts on Tuesday night with his strikeout rate for this season, he would have to pitch for 8 2/3 innings. However, if he pitches with his strikeout rate from 2020, he’ll have to pitch for “only” 6 2/3 innings.
Even though Nola is an innings eater, I do not think he can eat enough innings to have nine or more strikeouts. While most books are offering Nola Under 7.5 at a more favorable price, I like the extra strikeout that FanDuel is offering. At 8.5 strikeouts, I have a hard time seeing how Nola goes over.
Pick: Aaron Nola Under 8.5 Strikeouts (up to -170)
- Action Labs Score: 8
- Kevin Davis Score: 5
Editor’s Note: Jacob deGrom has been scratched from Tuesday’s start against the St. Louis Cardinals. Jordan Yamamoto will start in deGrom’s place.
Jacob deGrom (NYM) Under 10.5 Strikeouts (-145)
|Mets vs. Cardinals||NYM -225|
|Time||8:10 p.m. ET|
I am a glutton for punishment because every time deGrom pitches, I bet on his strikeout total under and make it one of my Action Network best bets.
As the best pitcher in the league, deGrom is viewed as a “lock” for the Mets to win when he starts. However, his high strikeout rate is unsustainable and that is why I am attracted to his strikeout total unders.
At the beginning of the season, deGrom’s strikeout totals were set at either 8.5 or 9.5. Now after his run of good luck, his total is set at an artificially high 10.5 strikeouts. In five starts this season, deGrom has thrown for 11 or more strikeouts three times. In 12 starts in 2020, deGrom threw for 11 or more strikeouts in only three starts.
Currently deGrom is averaging seven innings per start. Last season he averaged only 5 2/3 innings per start. Currently deGrom has an unsustainable strikeout rate of 15.17 strikeouts per nine innings. On a typical night for deGrom to have 11 or more strikeouts with his current strikeout rate, deGrom would have to pitch for about 6 2/3 innings. This season with his usage, deGrom would barely hit his over, but last year he would go under his total.
Additionally, deGrom is projected to have a strikeout rate of “only” 11.66 strikeouts per nine innings. Based on his projected strikeout rate, deGrom would have to pitch for almost 8 2/3 innings to have 11 or more strikeouts. Based on deGrom’s inflated usage and strikeout rate, I like his under in Tuesday’s game.
Pick: Jacob deGrom Under 10.5 Strikeouts (up to -160)
- Action Labs Score: N/A
- Kevin Davis Score: 8