The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Cleveland Guardians on March 31, 2026. First pitch from Dodger Stadium is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SportsNet LA.
The Dodgers are favored by -260 on the moneyline and by -1.5 (-120) on the run line. The Guardians are +215 on the moneyline and +1.5 (+100) on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs (-115 / -105).
Find my MLB picks and Guardians vs Dodgers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Guardians vs Dodgers Prediction
- Guardians vs Dodgers Pick: Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 Batter Walks (-132, DraftKings)
My Guardians vs Dodgers best bet is on Shohei Ohtani to walk at least once. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Guardians vs Dodgers Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +100 | 8 -115o / -105u | +215 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -120 | 8 -115o / -105u | -260 |
- Guardians vs Dodgers spread: Guardians +1.5 (+100), Dodgers -1.5 (-120)
- Guardians vs Dodgers over/under: 8 (-115 / -105)
- Guardians vs Dodgers moneyline: Guardians +215, Dodgers -260
Guardians vs Dodgers Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Tanner Bibee (CLE) | Stat | RHP Shohei Ohtani (LAD – Season Debut) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | W-L | — |
| -0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | — |
| 5.40/7.48 | ERA /xERA | — |
| 9.41/2.79 | FIP / xFIP | — |
| 1.20 | WHIP | — |
| 25.0% | K-BB% | — |
| 36.4% | GB% | — |
| 100 | Stuff+ | — |
| 117 | Location+ | — |
Guardians vs Dodgers Preview
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview
We get our first look at the pitcher version of Shohei Ohtani tonight in LA. He will attempt to throw his first full season as a pitcher since 2022, when he logged 166 pristine innings with a 2.33 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP. So, as always, all eyes are on Ohtani tonight. And that's for good reason.
The one thing we might not appreciate enough about the guy is how good he is as a pitcher. We didn't see it fully a year ago, as he threw just 47 regular-season innings. His 2.87 ERA and 1.01 WHIP were excellent.
What's crazy is that his 2.67 SIERA was even better. It was the 15th-best SIERA in baseball if you drop the qualification criteria to just 40 innings (meaning he's at the top of the list with a bunch of elite relievers).
But that's enough about the past. What are we to expect from Ohtani tonight? What are the angles to attack on his first outing as a pitcher? First, we should know that he's still getting ramped up as a pitcher. The Dodgers did not permit Ohtani to pitch in the WBC.
We saw him just twice in spring games, and the last time we saw him, he was striking out 11 Angels on 86 pitches (that was on March 24th). The last thing the Dodgers want is an injury to Ohtani, so we should expect the kid gloves to be on. I don't expect 90+ pitches, and any sort of laboring in a given inning is more likely to result in a quick hook than if we were talking about other pitchers.
The lineup Ohtani will take on tonight is not an imposing one. The Guardians have been a contact-heavy lineup in recent years. In my lineup summary projections for tonight, we see the Guardians with a middle-of-the-pack 22% K% projection (that's right at the league average).
DeLauter, Manzardo, Hoskins, Naylor, and Kayfus all project for worse-than-average strikeout rates. So this is not the Guardians lineup of recent years; it looks like this is a very beatable lineup on multiple fronts.
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview
I was eyeing up Ohtani Under 6.5 Strikeouts this morning. It's tough to get to seven strikeouts in around 80 pitches, no matter who you are. But with that 11-strikeout performance in the spring and with the higher-whiff Guardians lineup we're seeing, I'm not sure I want to do that.
One point you may not be aware of – Ohtani performs worse as a hitter in games when he's pitching. We have a pretty good sample size on this now. Check out the stat comparison:
- When Not Pitching: .286/.385/.613, .998 OPS, 25.2% K%, 13.4% BB%, 21% SB Attempt%
- When Pitching: .276/.382/.526, .908 OPS, 23.9% K%, 14.3% BB%, 7.4% SB Attempt%
Let's zoom in even further on the pitch-by-pitch level data. In games when Ohtani is pitching, as a hitter, he sees a 48.7% Zone% and swings 41.1% of the time. In games when Ohtani is not pitching, as a hitter, he sees a 47.7% Zone% and swings 46.4% of the time.
Pitchers attack him slightly more aggressively when they think he might be extra tired from pitching, but Ohtani swings much, much less often.
And this is where I'm focusing my attention for betting tonight
Guardians vs Dodgers Picks
Swing rates are highly correlated with walk rates. The less you swing, the more you walk. Our guess is that we get a patient Ohtani at the plate tonight. We'll say between a 40-42% Swing%. When we examine hitters with swing rates in that range, we see a large 10.9% BB% on average. That's almost four points above the league average.
We haven't even mentioned the opposing pitcher yet, which isn't uncommon for Ohtani games – everybody else seems to be forgotten. Tanner Bibee is back on the bump tonight after a little bit of a shoulder scare in his first outing. I'm sure he's pumped to have gotten the all-clear so he could make this start against the best team in the league!
We're looking for walks from Ohtani, so we check how Bibee does on that front. Last year, he was exactly a league-average walk rate pitcher when facing left-handed hitters. And his ball rate was also exactly at the league average.
In that first (shortened) outing of the year, he was more wild than usual with a high 38.5% Ball%. League-wide, ball rates are up this year (35.8% from 2024-2025, 37.3% so far this year). That could have something to do with ABS, but more likely it's just an effect of pitchers still going into the groove.
But you see where I'm going. While all eyes are on Ohtani the pitcher, we're exploiting his patience as a hitter in these games where he's pulling double duty.
Pick: Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 Batter Walks (-132, DraftKings)
