MLB Player Props: Can Drew Smyly Rack Up 6 Strikeouts Against the Cardinals?

MLB Player Props: Can Drew Smyly Rack Up 6 Strikeouts Against the Cardinals? article feature image
Credit:

Andrew Dieb, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Drew Smyly

Saturday’s sweat turned out not to be much of a sweat at all. Nick Margevicius was pulled after four innings and recorded just two strikeouts. Let’s hope for a repeat on Sunday’s 15-game slate.

Here are my favorite strikeout props of the day.

MLB Player Props, Sunday, May 19

  • Astros @ Red Sox: 1:05 p.m. ET
  • Rangers vs. Cardinals: 3:05 p.m. ET

Our FantasyLabs MLB Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 11:00 a.m. ET. View live odds here.

Astros SP Wade Miley

The Pick: Under 3.5 (-114)

Miley is far from a high-strikeout pitcher, sporting a 5.72 K/9 over the past year.  Next up is a Red Sox lineup that has a low 21.2% strikeout-rate against left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. They’ve also hit lefties fairly well over the same time frame, evidenced by their .349 wOBA.

 

Further,  there will be less than ideal pitching conditions on Sunday with 14-mph winds blowing out to left center, and the Red Sox are implied for 5.5 runs. Miley would be 4-4 against this line so far this season, and while 3.5 strikeouts is rather low, I like the combination of a low-strikeout pitcher against a low-strikeout lineup.

I think 3.5 is a fair line, and we have him projected for 3.5 strikeouts in our Props tool so I wouldn’t bet this lower than the current odds being offered.

Rangers SP Drew Smyly

The Pick: Under 5.0 (-114)

Smyly has been awful this season, pitching to a 5.42 xFIP and 9.7% K-BB%. And through five starts this season, Smyly has averaged just 4.64 innings pitched and has only made it to five innings once.

With the Cardinals implied for 6.2 runs, and their projected lineup sporting a 21.2% strikeout rate and .347 wOBA over the past 12 months against lefties, it’s hard to imagine he lasts very long in this game.

I’d bet this down to -150.