MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: 2 Strikeout Totals, Including Ranger Suárez & José Berríos (Thursday, September 9)
Duane Burleson/Getty Images. Pictured: Jose Berrios
After taking a good, long look at Thursday's pitching matchups using the Action Labs Player Props tool, I've found two strikeout totals on the MLB slate that provide value.
While it's a very small slate tonight, there are still two starting pitchers that are in a great position to pitch well tonight.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool grades every play on a scale from 1-10, and I'll be sure to include the grade below my explanation.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Ranger Suárez Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-105)
| Phillies vs. Rockies | Phillies (-190) |
| Time | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
I'm always happy to fade the Rockies on the road, where they've posted the fifth-highest strikeout rate this season (25.3%).
However, I also believe in Ranger Suárez. The middle reliever-turned-closer-turned-starter has been more than interesting this season, striking out more than nine batters per nine innings across all his different appearances.
Additionally, he's pitched great lately. He's hit over 4.5 strikeouts in his last three starts — punching out 19 over that 17-inning stretch — while allowing just two earned runs in the process.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool has Suárez slated for 5.5 strikeouts today, while FanGraphs' SaberSim projections has him at 5.15. Either way, there's plenty of value on the over 4.5 number DraftKings is offering.
Action Labs Grade: 9/10
José Berríos Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-115)
| Blue Jays vs. Yankees | Blue Jays (+100) |
| Time | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
No need to say too much about Berríos, who's hit over 5.5 strikeouts in five of his seven starts as a Blue Jay, striking out a total of 43 batters in those 38 innings.
Instead, let's take a slightly closer look at the Yankees, who have lost five straight and are on the verge of getting swept. The offensive metrics are still decent, but they've struck out at the sixth-highest rate against RHPs over the last 30 days.
In the first three games of this series, the Blue Jays starters (Hyun-Jin Ryu, Steven Matz, Alec Manoah) have combined for 16 strikeouts over 17 2/3 innings while allowing just four earned runs. The Yankees have gotten nothing going against this rotation, and I'm not expecting the bats to heat up tonight.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool has Berríos projected at 6.5 strikeouts tonight, while FanGraphs' SaberSim projections has him at 6.32. I'm happy to play the over 5.5 number DraftKings is offering us at short odds.
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
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