It’s been a busy start to the week in the baseball world, headlined by the Athletics’ six-game “homestand” in Las Vegas. After a whopping 29-run game on Monday, we saw a calmer 7-5 win for the Athletics last night.
But the story surrounding those two games has been the home run frenzy. In total, there have been 17 dingers, including one from Jonah Heim that had an xBA of .000!
So can we continue to expect runs in this Wednesday's bout between the Brewers and Athletics? How about the rest of the MLB slate that is littered with great weather?
Read on for my top 3 MLB player props today.
MLB Player Props
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7:07 PM | |
| 7:10 PM | |
| 9:05 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Phillies vs. Blue Jays MLB Player Prop
Bryce Harper
Home Run (+390)
Max Scherzer makes his return from the injured list on Wednesday, which should be music to our ears.
The 41-year-old struggled to find any rhythm in April, allowing a higher barrel rate (13.8%) than strikeouts (11.9%). He allowed a .291 xBA in his five starts, seeing his velocity slowly creep down.
Scherzer’s fastball, which he throws nearly half the time, sits at just 93 MPH on average. And as a fly-ball pitcher, not being able to generate many whiffs makes you prone to the long ball. In 12 2/3 innings this season, Scherzer has allowed six home runs.
I’m going to keep fading Scherzer until he shows signs of life, and I will happily bet Bryce Harper in this spot.
After a rollercoaster 2025 season, Harper has looked like a different player this year.
Some would say that he has been a bit unlucky — he’s currently running his highest xBA (.292) and xSLG (.567) since 2021. He’s barreling the ball more often, and he’s striking out at the lowest rate in five years (finally under 20%).
All in all, he looks more composed at the plate.
As mentioned, Scherzer relies heavily on the four-seam fastball. Unfortunately for him, Harper has crushed that pitch over the past two seasons (+4 Run Value in 2026, +12 in 2025).
Harper already has three homers against Scherzer in the past, and I’m banking on Bryce to do more damage against the now-softer-tossing Max.
Pick: Bryce Harper Home Run (+390)
Cardinals vs. Mets MLB Player Prop
Juan Soto
Home Run (+428)
OK, now that we’ve got the ugly pick out of the way, let’s have some fun!
Well, I guess that depends on what you consider fun.
Betting on Juan Soto? Fun.
Having to watch the New York Mets play baseball? Not so fun.
Despite the Mets’ struggles this year, Soto’s underlying metrics remain among MLB’s elite. He ranks in the 99th percentile among qualified hitters in xSLG (.594), and he’s on pace for the highest squared-up rate of his career.
Interestingly enough, Soto has struggled far more on the road this season (.208 average, .727 OPS) than at Citi Field (.353 average, 1.079 OPS), where he’ll play tonight.
Andre Pallante takes the mound for the Cardinals, and he’s well-known as a pitch-to-contact ground-ball guy who doesn’t generate many whiffs. He also struggles much more against lefties (.726 OPS allowed) than against righties (.660 OPS allowed).
I’ll happily bet the MVP candidate here at a price north of 4-to-1. Rarely do you see these odds for Soto, especially against a right-handed pitcher.
It’s worth mentioning that a Soto homer is priced as high as +455 at Kalshi. Check out the best prediction market apps here.
Pick: Juan Soto Home Run (+428)
Brewers vs. Athletics MLB Player Prop
Carlos Cortes
Home Run (+410)
You might be thinking to yourself: “Who the hell is that guy?”
Exactly.
Stuck in a platoon with Colby Thomas, Carlos Cortes will get his first start of this series with a righty on the mound for Milwaukee.
Even better, this is a great matchup for Cortes against a struggling Brandon Sproat.
Sproat’s underlying metrics are ugly. He’s running a 5.46 xERA while ranking in the bottom 25% of qualified pitchers in barrel rate allowed (9.9%), hard-hit rate allowed (43.4%), and walk rate (12.1%).
He doesn’t have the swing-and-miss stuff, relying on inducing soft contact and nibbling on the zone.
The issue? He hasn’t found consistent accuracy.
That means more favorable hitter counts and opportunities for damage.
In this game, where players like Nick Kurtz, Brent Rooker, and Shea Langeliers are priced below +250 to hit a home run, I like taking a bigger swing on Cortes.
While Cortes doesn’t have the same pop as those three, he does rank in the 76th percentile among qualified hitters in xSLG (.461). Additionally, he never strikes out (9.6%, 98th percentile).
Putting the ball in play is key in a Little League ballpark where we’ve seen routine pop-ups leave the yard.
