MLB Playoff Props | PrizePicks Plays for October 11
Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images. Pictured: Mookie Betts.
The Divisional Series gets underway on Tuesday with four games scattered throughout the day.
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
Enter PrizePicks.
With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially parlay game prop over/unders with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.
Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options on Tuesday’s Major League Baseball slate and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
Juan Soto Hitter Fantasy Score Under 5.5
In Tuesday's nightcap, we have Game 1 between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres. We are going to be fading a couple of San Diego hitters as they are slated to go against left-hander Julio Urias.
Urias has been brilliant all season, posting a 17-7 record with a 2.16 ERA and 0.96 WHIP through 31 starts. While the whole year has been outstanding, he has been virtually unhittable throughout the second half of the season.
Over his last 14 starts, Urias is 10-1 with a 1.27 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. Based on his metrics, we should not worry about regression, as he boasts a .262 xwOBA, .205 xBA and .332 xSLG this season.
Getting the ball in Game 1, Urias should be a great candidate to back against the Padres, a team he has dominated throughout his career. Across 15 career appearances against them, he is 6-1 with a 2.19 ERA and 1.00 ERA.
The first San Diego hitter we are fading is Juan Soto. In his career against Urias, Soto is just 1-for-18 at the plate.
This lack of production should not be too surprising considering Soto's track record against left-handed pitchers. This season, his splits drop by about 34% to a .210 BA, .354 SLG, and .701 OPS.
Josh Bell Hitter Fantasy Score Under 5
The other Padres hitter we are fading in this game is Josh Bell. While Bell is 3-for-9 with three singles against Urias in his career, we should expect some regression.
Across those nine at-bats, Bell has produced a .175 xBA, .193 xSLG and .215 xwOBA. Playing away from home has been a big issue for Bell all season, and under the lights at Dodger Stadium against Urias is not an ideal scenario to turn that around.
Through his 322 plate appearances on the road this year, Bell's splits drop by about 31% to a .240 BA, .344 SLG and .679 OPS.
Trea Turner Hitter Fantasy Score Over 7.5
We are also going to be backing a couple of Dodgers hitters in this game, as they are slated to go against right-hander Mike Clevinger. Through 23 appearances this season, Clevinger is 7-7 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.
Over his last 11 starts, the right-hander is 4-4 with a 5.67 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. All three of his career starts against the Dodgers took place over that stretch.
Across those three outings, Clevinger is 0-2 with a 9.69 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Based on his metrics this season, I do not trust Clevinger at all this postseason, as he has posted a .332 xwOBA, .247 xBA, and .435 xSLG.
The first Los Angeles hitter we are backing is Trea Turner. In his career against the right-hander, Turner is 4-10.
I am not too worried about regression in this specific matchup, considering that Turner has produced a .296 xBA, .410 xSLG and .629 xwOBA across those 10 at-bats. Posting a .296 BA, .461 SLG and .803 OPS this season, Turner has been a key part of this offense and should continue to be throughout the playoffs.
Mookie Betts Hitter Fantasy Score Over 7.5
The other Dodgers hitter we are backing in this game is superstar Mookie Betts. Like Turner, Betts has had a lot of success against Clevinger.
Through 18 career plate appearances against the right-hander, Betts boasts a .467 BA, .667 SLG and .516 wOBA. We should not expect regression in this matchup as Betts has produced a .328 xBA, .552 xSLG and .410 xwOBA over those 18 appearances.
Betts has been a beast at Dodger Stadium this year, posting a .278 BA, .532 SLG and .871 OPS. Under the lights in Game 1, expect the lead-off hitter to start this series off strongly.
Cal Quantrill Over 3.5 Strikeouts
Right before the Padres-Dodgers game, we have Game 1 between the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians. Taking the mound for Cleveland is right-hander Cal Quantrill.
Through 32 starts this season, Quantrill is 15-5 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. While he has been strong all season, we are specifically targeting his strikeout prop.
Recording at least four strikeouts in 13 of his last 16 starts, we should expect this strong trend to continue against New York. Since September 1, the Yankees rank just 20th in the league in K% when facing right-handed pitching.
Looking at the Yankees' projected lineup for Game 1, four of the nine hitters possess a K% north of 25%.
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