MLB Playoff Prop Picks, PrizePicks Plays for Phillies vs Padres & Yankees vs Astros
Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Verlander (Astros)
- The NLDS rolls on, and the ALCS begins on Wednesday, so we have PrizePicks plays for you.
- Tony Sartori is fading a couple of San Diego hitters while backing a couple of Astros hitters.
- And don't forget about Justin Verlander.
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially parlay game prop over/unders with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.
Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options on Wednesday's Major League Baseball slate and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
Justin Verlander Pitcher Fantasy Score Over 33.5
Taking the mound for the Houston Astros is this year's projected AL Cy Young award winner Justin Verlander.
Despite coming off of Tommy John surgery, the 39-year-old right-hander was brilliant this season, as he went 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA and 0.83 WHIP.
After getting shelled in his first playoff appearance this postseason against the Mariners, we should expect a bounce-back performance. In his six starts prior to that outing, Verlander went 3-1 with a 0.84 ERA and 0.59 WHIP.
Based on his metrics, we should expect positive regression after his poor outing against Seattle. This season, the right-hander boasts a .255 xwOBA, .207 xBA and .331 xSLG.
Over his six starts against the Yankees since joining the Astros, Verlander is 3-1 with a 3.12 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Through 163 career plate appearances against Verlander, this current New York roster possesses a mere .161 BA, .323 SLG and .226 wOBA.
Alex Bregman Hitter Fantasy Score Over 6.5
We are also backing a couple of Astros hitters in this game, as they are slated to go against right-hander Jameson Taillon.
Giving the stars of this rotation a much-needed rest following the five-game series against the Guardians and traveling to Houston on zero days rest, Taillon should be a good fade candidate in this contest.
Through 32 starts this season, Taillon possesses a 3.91 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Over his last five outings, the right-hander is 1-2 with a 4.44 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.
Taillon has gone against the Astros twice over the last two seasons, and the results have not been good, as he has posted a 6.17 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.
The first Houston hitter we are backing is infielder Alex Bregman.
Bregman had a good round against the Mariners, as he collected five hits through three games, including a double and a homer. Going over this total in two of those three games, we should expect Bregman to keep it going against the Yankees.
Across six career plate appearances against Taillon, Bregman boasts a .333 BA, .833 SLG and .493 wOBA. When facing right-handed pitching this season, Bregman's numbers jump to a .277 BA, .504 SLG and .881 OPS.
Yordan Alvarez Hitter Fantasy Score Over 7.5
The other Astros hitter we are backing in this game is superstar Yordan Alvarez.
Outside of Game 3, Alvarez crushed the Mariners, as he homered in both of the first two games (each of which was the winning run).
Producing some of the best splits in baseball, Alvarez finished the season with a .304 BA, .612 SLG and 1.017 OPS. Shockingly, his metrics are even stronger, as he has produced a .462 xwOBA, .329 xBA and .672 xSLG.
The guy is somehow underperforming his underlying metrics, which is surprising considering how dominant he has been at the plate.
We should expect this strong hitting to continue against Taillon, a guy whom Alvarez has posted a .333 BA, .833 SLG and .493 wOBA against through six career plate appearances.
Bregman and Alvarez have both homered against Taillon before, and I could see both of them starting this series off strong.
Manny Machado Hitter Fantasy Score Under 6.5
We are going to be fading a few San Diego hitters today, as they are slated to go against right-hander Aaron Nola. More than anything else, these plays are a backing of Nola rather than a fade of two of San Diego's best hitters.
Through 32 starts this season, Nola produced a 3.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. In the playoffs, he has been lights out, as he is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.95 WHIP.
These two starts were a continuation of a strong end to the regular season, as Nola is 4-2 with a 1.72 ERA and 0.91 WHIP over his last eight outings. The results align with his tremendous underlying metrics, as Nola has produced a .259 xwOBA, .211 xBA and .340 xSLG this year.
The first Padres hitter we are fading is Manny Machado. In his career against the right-hander, Machado is just 1-for-13 at the dish with three strikeouts.
Going under this total in five of his last seven playoff games, Machado should struggle to find positive regression against one of the hottest pitchers in baseball.
Juan Soto Hitter Fantasy Score Under 6.5
We are also fading the other Padres star in this contest, Juan Soto. Soto has been underwhelming compared to expectations in these playoffs, as he has gone under this total in three of his last five games.
For the postseason, he has posted a mere .226 BA, .258 SLG and .552 OPS. We are getting such a high total because he has been solid in his career against Nola, however, he is running into him at a terrible time given the opposite direction that these two players are trending.
Nola has gone six or more innings in each of his first two postseason starts, so look for him to go deep into this game in an effort to limit the strong bats that San Diego possesses.