White Sox vs. Athletics Game 2 Odds, Betting Pick, Preview (Wednesday, Sept. 30)
Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images. Pictured: Dallas Keuchel #60 of the Chicago White Sox.
- Expect another low-scoring game between the White Sox and Athletics as Chicago looks to close out this Wild Card series.
- The A's have been bad against lefties all year, while the White Sox haven't been quite as good against righties.
- Get Michael Arinze's full breakdown for White Sox vs. Athletics below.
White Sox vs. Athletics Game 2 Odds
|White Sox Odds||+110 [Bet Now]|
|Athletics Odds||-131 [Bet Now]|
|Over/Under||7.5 (+100/-121) [Bet Now]|
|First Pitch||3 p.m. ET|
After losing Game 1, the Oakland Athletics’ Wild Card run is essentially down to another single-elimination game. Their failure to get on the front foot by winning the first game could bring back unpleasant thoughts of their past three Wild Card experiences, which were played in a one-game format and all ended in defeat.
A’s manager, Bob Melvin, will throw right-hander Chris Bassitt in Game 2, who will be opposed by veteran left-hander Dallas Keuchel of the Chicago White Sox. If you made the argument that either one of these pitchers could have started Game 1, you likely wouldn’t be alone in that opinion.
Both pitchers had stellar seasons and after three of four playoff games stayed under the total yesterday — I would not be surprised if we had another low-scoring game on our hands.
Bassitt went 5-2 on the season with a 2.29 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. His 3.59 FIP, which is higher than his ERA by 1.3 runs and suggests that he could be a candidate for regression in the postseason.
Per Baseball Savant, Bassitt can throw up to six pitches: sinker (38.2%), cutter (23%), four seamer (16.5%), changeup (10.3%), curveball (9.4%) and slider (2.6%). Opposing batters have really only had success against his sinker, which is the only pitch they’ve hit .300 against. When facing his other pitches, batters are hitting .267.
Just imagine the vacillation that goes through a batter’s head as they try to anticipate which pitch Bassitt is likely to throw and in which count. Per FanGraphs, each of Bassitt’s pitches graded out as above average except his changeup, which just about even at -0.3 runs below average.
Prior to Game 1, we extolled the virtues of Chicago’s hitters against left-handed pitching. The truth is the White Sox haven’t been too shabby against right-handed pitchers either. Their .254 average against right-handers is in the top half of the league (10th) and they’re ranked 11th with an above average 106 wRC+ rating. But as an opposing team, you’d gladly take those numbers with a right-hander on the mound compared to a .285 AVG and a 143 wRC+ rating against left-handers.
And if you’re an opposing manager, Bassitt is exactly the type of right-hander you’d like to have on the mound against this White Sox ballclub — especially considering that theie current lineup has 62 at-bats against him with a .145 AVG / .185 OBP / .177 SLG slash line and a putrid .032 ISO.
Chicago White Sox
Keuchel will look to pitch the Chicago White Sox to their first Divisional Series since 2008. The veteran lefty has been everything the South Siders could have asked for this season.
Keuchel went 6-2 on the year with a 1.99 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Like Bassitt, Keuchel could be in line for some regression given his 3.08 FIP, which is higher than his ERA. What could counter that is the difficulty hitters face when trying to barrel up Keuchel’s pitches.
In Keuchel’s 198 batted balls this season, he’s only been barreled up eight times. That’s a barrel rate of just 4%. That makes sense when you consider that he’s allowing 0.28 home runs per nine innings and, not to mention, his 2.40 GB/FB ratio.
Despite a fastball that tops out around 88 mph, Keuchel is still able to pitch effectively. His fastball was only -0.7 runs below average, but he more than makes up for it by throwing a mixture of five pitches to keep hitters off-balance. Keuchel throws a sinker (32.3%), cutter (30.9%), changeup (27.9%), slider (6.6%) and four seamer (2.3%).
This season, his changeup and slider are generating a whiff rate of 33.9% and 40.9% respectively. Expect the A’s to see a heavy dose of those two pitches as they are -23.6 runs below average against a slider and -5.7 runs below average against the changeup.
The Athletics’ current lineup has 143 at-bats against Keuchel, which has resulted in a .231 AVG / .295 OBP / .364 SLG slash line with a .133 ISO tha is below the .140 targeted benchmark.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Both bullpens combined to allow one run in yesterday’s game. Giolito actually flirted with a no-hitter and went seven innings before Chicago’s pen shut the door while Oakland’s relievers came on to pitch 5.2 innings of of one-run ball.
Of the four playoff games that started on Tuesday, three of them went under the total. It’s not surprising to see these games so closely contested with players perhaps gripping the bats even tighter.
With these two pitchers on the mound today, I think we’ve got a great chance at another under today. PointsBet is still hanging a total of 7.5 for this game. I’ll take the under there and look forward to an old-fashioned pitching duel on the mound.
The Pick: Under 7.5 (-125) (Play down to 7)