We have a full, 15-game slate on Friday, May 2 and our MLB betting experts have come in with a trio of plus-money picks.
They found value in the MLB prop markets today as all three picks are player props, which should give bettors some fun ways to watch Friday's games.
There's plenty of baseball to watch tonight, so let's get right into the picks. Continue reading for Friday's MLB best bets.
MLB Best Bets, Predictions, Player Props 5/2
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:05 p.m. | |
  | 7:15 p.m. | |
  | 8:10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Grant Neiffer's Royals vs Orioles Best Bet: Positive Regression Looming for Henderson
I don't know how, but over the past few seasons, Michael Wacha has been great at suppressing power to lefties. However, the underlying numbers say that shouldn't be the case as he has massive fly ball splits to lefties, with over a 45% FB% in each of the past two seasons and under 8% HR/FB. Wacha is getting a big ballpark downgrade, going from the worst ballpark for lefty power over the past three seasons (KC) to the second best (Baltimore).
Meanwhile, Gunnar Henderson is one of the best home run hitters in the league. He hasn't gotten off to a great start this season, but the underlying numbers are similar to last season, when he hit 37 home runs. Positive regression should be coming his way soon and I have the true odds here around +320, making this a great bet.
Pick: Gunnar Henderson Over 0.5 Home Runs (+400)
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Grant Neiffer's Dodgers vs Braves Best Bet: Back Hernandez to Homer
Teoscar Hernandez is off to a great start with nine homers through 29 games. He's also in a great spot today.
Grant Holmes isn't a bad pitcher, but has been absolutely crushed by righties in his short career, giving up a 2.12 HR/9 to go along with heavy fly ball and hard-contact splits. the weather in Atlanta is good today with decent humidity and temperatures around 80 degrees during the game. The ball should be flying and given the matchup and Hernandez's recent form, this line should be about 100 points lower.
Pick: Teoscar Hernandez Over 0.5 Home Runs (+450)
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Charlie Wright's Cubs vs Brewers Best Bet: Fade Priester
Quinn Priester doesn't have overwhelming stuff, so he typically dances around the edge of the strike zone looking for weak contact. The problem this year has been enticing batters to offer at those close pitches. Priester has a sub-50% zone rate and a 23.8% chase rate. That's a rough combination, so it's no surprise that he has nearly as many walks (12) as strikeouts (13). If you aren't going to find the zone consistently, you need hitters to help you out and Priester isn't getting hitters to chase.
