MLB Predictions Today | Odds, Best Bets for Cubs vs Astros, Phillies vs Giants, More (Tuesday, May 16)
Jane Tyska/Digital First Media/East Bay Times via Getty Images. Pictured: Alex Cobb
Tuesday’s MLB slate is once again loaded, with all 15 games taking place under the lights tonight.
Our analysts have come up with four bets for four different games, including Angels vs. Orioles, Cubs vs. Astros, Diamondbacks vs. Athletics and Phillies vs. Giants.
Here are our best bets from the MLB slate on Tuesday, May 16th.
Tuesday MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
|Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.|
Angels vs. Orioles
Chase Silseth has posted an impressive 0.90 ERA in Triple-A this season, but I’m a bit skeptical of it translating to the big leagues given his mediocre stuff numbers and average strikeout rates in the minors. Silseth has just an 82 Stuff+ this season in Triple-A, and while he does generate good ground ball rates, the projection systems are much higher on him than I am.
Silseth has just five walks and five strikeouts in 8 1/3 innings thus far, and last year he walked 12 in 28 innings with 24 strikeouts. All of these peripherals make me skeptical he can maintain a projected 4.20 ERA, about league average, as a starter.
Dean Kremer is a fly ball pitcher, and while the improved ballpark dimensions help at Oriole Park, the wind blowing out to right field on Tuesday night does not. Kremer has a sub-20% strikeout rate, he doesn’t have any pitch that grades out well above average and his 6.96 xERA is a harbinger of bad future results.
Kremer has increased his fastball usage this year, but it’s just an average pitch.
I’d bet the over 9.5 at -115 or better on Tuesday night and fade both starting pitchers.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-110)
Cubs vs. Astros
By D.J. James
Cristian Javier is a great pitcher. He has 35 strikeouts in his last four starts. However, he may meet his match on Tuesday with Justin Steele. Steele has a 1.82 ERA on the season, and he is a bit better at allowing weak contact than Javier. Steele does have a xERA of 3.21, but this should not deter bettors from backing him.
Javier’s ERA is 3.47 against an xERA of 4.18. Last season, both of these numbers were around 2.50, to show how much better he had been.
The Astros’ offense has been below average against left-handers. They have a wRC+ of 94 and are walking only 5.1% of the time in May. This should be a favorable matchup for Steele, as he ranks in the 96th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the 98th percentile in Hard Hit Percentage. In addition, his ground ball rate is over 51%, so he should induce weaker contact on the ground.
Javier’s one detriment has been allowing hard contact. He ranks in the 46th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the 35th percentile in Hard Hit Rate. He has improved his walk numbers from a 8.9% mark to a 5.4% mark. Over the course of the season, he will improve
This is more of a play on the line than either team. Expect this game to be lower scoring, as the Cubs only have a 95 wRC+ off of righties in May. That said, this line should be closer to a pick‘em. Take the Cubs all the way down to +115.
Pick: Cubs +148
Diamondbacks vs. Athletics
By Kenny Ducey
The Oakland Athletics generally aren’t going to hurt you a ton when they make contact with the baseball. They’re 28th in expected slugging and dead last in expected batting average. They’re an extreme fly ball team which struggles to make contact, ranking third-to-last in the league in that category, and they also play in one of the friendliest parks for a pitcher.
So, I think Tommy Henry could come up with a nice start here. He’s a fly ball pitcher heading into the stadium ranked 29th of 30 in park factor and the A’s whiff-happy bats should help alleviate some of the pain caused by a low 9.7% strikeout rate. Henry has actually been superb at pitching around his strikeout struggles, however, pitching to a low .301 xwOBA on contact – so I think this is something of a perfect spot for him.
It’s true that the A’s have been decent against lefties and Arizona has been roughly average, but that number should be on its way up considering how hot the Snakes are right now, ranking fourth in wRC+ in that regard. Dominic Fletcher’s call-up has helped bolster the offense and Corbin Carroll is healthy again, so I really have no concerns.
I’ve totally lost faith in Kyle Muller at this point; his Triple-A success from a season ago has not translated and his .326 expected batting average would indicate he’s earned every bit of this 7.34 ERA he has. He has no command of his arsenal right now and should get lit up by one of the hottest offenses in the game.
Pick: Diamondbacks F5 Run Line -0.5 (-145)
Phillies vs. Giants
By Nick Shlain
While Alex Cobb has just a 20% strikeout percentage on the season, his strikeout percentage against right-handed hitters is quite good at 27%, and he’s gone over this number in three of his last five starts.
The Philadelphia Phillies lineup he’ll face Tuesday has mostly right-handed hitters in it and they strike out quite a bit. Philadelphia’s projected lineup has combined for a 22% strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this season.
Right-handed batters Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, J.T. Realmuto and Edmundo Sosa all have at least a 22% strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this season.
Cobb hasn’t faced the Phillies head-to-head yet this season, but he has cleared this number against other strikeout heavy teams this year. Cobb has posted strikeout totals of six, seven, and eight against the Kansas City Royals, Miami Marlins and San Diego Padres.
I expect him to take advantage of another good strikeout matchup for him here as I have him projected for five strikeouts.
Pick: Alex Cobb Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-143)
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