Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Tony Sartori has that job for Monday, September 7.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Phillies ML (60¢ at Kalshi)
- Cubs/Brewers Over 8 (-118 at FanDuel | Play to -125)
- Blue Jays/Athletics Under 8.5 (-110 at Caesars | Play to -115)
Braves vs Phillies Picks
Even if the hitting edge goes slightly to the Atlanta Braves, the discrepancy is thin. This season, both teams rank in the top 10 in runs scored per game.
Regardless, the pitching gap between these teams is far greater in this matchup, with Atlanta's Grant Holmes slated to face Philadelphia's Jesús Luzardo. Statistically, Luzardo ranks ahead of Holmes in wins, ERA, WHIP and strikeouts.
That said, the gap in their underlying metrics is even wider. Entering this matchup, Luzardo ranks ahead of Holmes in xERA, xBA, xSLG and average exit velocity.
The gap in these metrics is substantial:
- xERA: Luzardo – 91st percentile, Holmes – 23rd percentile
- xBA: Luzardo – 85th percentile, Holmes – 31st percentile
- xSLG: Luzardo – 90th percentile, Holmes – 21st percentile
- Average Exit Velocity: Luzardo – 73rd percentile, Holmes – 2nd percentile
Add in the Phillies' home-field advantage, and they should have the edge in this game.
Pick: Phillies ML (60¢ at Kalshi)
Cubs vs Brewers Picks
These are two of the best lineups in baseball, despite their vastly different approaches to scoring runs. The Chicago Cubs are all about power, ranking first in slugging percentage, OPS and home runs.
Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Brewers are small-ball specialists, ranking first in hits per game, second in batting average, second in on-base percentage and third in stolen bases. Both approaches work, given that both teams rank in the top three in runs scored per game.
That alone should make one feel optimistic about the over, but the pitching matchup provides even more reason for optimism. Chicago hands the ball to left-hander Matthew Boyd, who ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in xERA, xBA, strikeout rate and barrel rate.
Meanwhile, left-hander Robert Gasser takes the mound for Milwaukee. Through 17 appearances this year, Gasser is 4-5 with a 4.57 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP.
Pick: Over 8 (-118 at FanDuel | Play to -125)
Blue Jays vs Athletics Picks
A great pitching duel should be in store, with the Toronto Blue Jays' Dylan Cease slated to face the Athletics' Jacob Lopez. Cease is the more obvious of the two, given the current two-man race for the AL Cy Young Award between him and Cam Schlitter.
While Schlitter is the more likely winner of the two, that doesn't take away from how dominant Cease has been this season. Through 26 starts, the right-hander is 10-5 with a 2.25 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally dominant. Entering this matchup, Cease ranks in the 95th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and strikeout rate.
Meanwhile, Lopez has completely overhauled his game in the second half of the season. His poor start to the campaign has resulted in a misleading 4.71 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.
However, his underlying metrics and recent performance paint a stronger picture. Lopez has allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his past 10 starts.
The southpaw is 2-1 over that stretch with a 2.28 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. This season, Lopez ranks in the 78th percentile in xERA, 86th percentile in xBA, 99th percentile in average exit velocity and 93rd percentile in hard-hit rate.
Both pitchers are certainly capable of limiting these lineups, given that both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in runs scored per game.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-110 at Caesars | Play to -115)
Sartori's Leadoff Picks for Monday, September 7
- Phillies ML (60¢ at Kalshi)
- Cubs/Brewers Over 8 (-118 at FanDuel | Play to -125)
- Blue Jays/Athletics Under 8.5 (-110 at Caesars | Play to -115)
