Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Wednesday, October 15.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Wednesday, I preview Blue Jays vs. Mariners Game 3. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Wednesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Wednesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Wednesday, October 15
Series Moneyline Corner
Per Sarah Langs, teams that have taken a 2-0 lead in best-of-seven series have won those series 84% of the time (78-15), and in series with the current 2-3-2 format, teams winning both Games 1 and 2 on the road have finished the job 89% of the time (24-3).
The three teams to pull off the comeback all did so in the World Series: the 1985 Royals (against the Cardinals in seven games), the 1986 Mets (against the Red Sox in seven games), and the 1996 Yankees (against the Braves in six games).
History is against both the Blue Jays and Brewers.
While I do give Toronto a slightly better chance to pull off the comeback than those limited historical samples, their best available price (+500) still falls short of my updated series line (+520); I'd want closer to +600 to back the Blue Jays to win four of the final six games in the ALCS.
Mariners to win 4-1 (projected +271, listed +270 at FanDuel) is the closest prop compared to my correct score odds, but I cannot recommend a value play on this series before Game 2.
The Dodgers re-opened around -1300 (92.9% implied) to win both their series and the NL Pennant after Game 2, with the Brewers as high as +1000 (9% implied).
I project an edge on the Dodgers to sweep, win 4-0 (projected +140, listed +170 at DraftKings) or cover a 3.5-game spread behind Tyler Glasnow and Shohei Ohtani in Games 3 and 4 at home; bet that prop down to +150, at just under a two percent edge compared to my projection.
The Dodgers are currently -170 for Game 3, and odds of +170 to sweep imply that their Game 4 moneyline would be around -145 with Shohei Ohtani on the bump. However, I project that line anywhere from -180 to -200 for Ohtani, depending on the Brewers' Game 3 bullpen usage, meaning the Dodgers are currently undervalued to win the next two games and sweep the series.
Blue Jays vs. Mariners
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 7 -115o / -105u | +110 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +170 | 7 -115o / -105u | -130 |
Shane Bieber vs. George Kirby
George Kirby had a down 2025 season (4.21 ERA, 3.85 xERA, 3.25 xFIP, 20.6% K-BB%, 110 Pitching+, 3.70 botERA) after dealing with shoulder inflammation in spring training, which ultimately held him to 23 starts.
Kirby was arguably unlucky, posting a 2.95 xFIP and a 22.6% K-BB% in the second half, compared to a 4.33 ERA, thanks primarily to a .354 BABIP (.304 career). Although his home run rate (12.8% HR/FB) did increase this season.
Kirby is a slightly better pitcher at home (career 3.27 xFIP, 22.5% K-BB%) than he is on the road (3.68 xFIP, 18.3% K-BB%), but his splits are not as pronounced as his teammate Luis Castillo, for instance.
Kirby has excellent command (112 Location+; third among 127 pitchers with 100+ IP in 2025), and he's posted the second-lowest walk rate (3.6%) among 280 qualified pitchers (min. 200 IP total) since his 2022 debut.
He's really only made one mistake — a home run to Kerry Carpenter — across his two 2025 playoff outings (combined 10 IP, 9 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 14 K).
Shane Bieber got roughed up by the Yankees (2 2/3 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 2 K) in the ALDS, after mixed results after the trade deadline with the Blue Jays (4.58 xERA, 3.35 xFIP, 18.9% K-BB%, 101 Pitching+, 4.29 botERA).
Bieber's velocity is down 1.5 mph (from 94.1 to 92.6 mph) and his Stuff+ is down 11 points (from 103 to 92) relative to his short-season Cy Young campaign in 2020.
It's been a slow decline in effectiveness, but even more immediately concerning are his career-highs in hard-hit rate (48.2% vs. 43.1% career), barrel rate (12.3% vs. 7.9% career), and home run rate (1.79 HR/9 vs. 1.04 career), all while carrying a low BABIP (.245 vs. .302 career) and a high strand rate (84.4% vs. 77.1% career).
Toronto's rotation depth and bullpen (17th in xFIP, 22nd in K-BB% post trade deadline) are the biggest concerns. Still, John Schneider has continued to do his bullpen no favors, either, utilizing both Louis Varland and Mason Fluharty consecutively in both Games 1 and 2, and permitting the Mariners lineup with at least one look against virtually every Toronto relief pitcher.
Conversely, while the Mariners did utilize Eduard Bazardo for another 30-pitch outing in Game 2, they were able to finish the late innings of a blowout win with Emerson Hancock and Carlos Vargas, saving their best arms for Games 3-5 at home.
While Seattle's home playoff games against Detroit were extremely low scoring (each game finished 3-2; two in extra innings), the clubs went a combined 9-for-46 (.197) with runners in scoring position and stranded 38 baserunners across three contests.
Moreover, Tarik Skubal (32.2% K% vs. 23.3% for Bieber) started two of those three games for Detroit, and the Blue Jays (17.8% K%; lowest in MLB) shouldn't strike out as much as the Tigers (23.9%, 27th) with runners on base.
I project the Mariners as nearly -128 for Game 3 at home, in front of a raucous crowd hungry for its first-ever World Series appearance. I set the total at 7.35 runs.
Kirby has made 57 home starts at T-Mobile Park, and just six of those games (12.2%) have closed below 7.
While I don't project an edge on either side of this contest, I did bet the Over at open, at 6.5 (-105), which I would bet to 7 -110.
Pick: Over 7 (bet to -110)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, October 15
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Sides and Totals
- Blue Jays / Mariners Over 6.5 (-105, 1u) at FanDuel bet to 7 (-110)
Player Props
- Addison Barger Over 0.5 Hits (-135, 0.1u) at BetMGM; bet to -160
Futures and Props
- Correct Series Score: Dodgers 4-0 (+170, 0.5u) at DraftKings; bet to +150
