Brazil will play the USA in the World Baseball Classic on Friday, March 6, in Houston, Texas. The game will start at 8 p.m. ET and can be streamed live on FOX.
Team USA is a -7000 Moneyline favorite and a -9.5 run line favorite. The total is set at 14.5.
Here are my Brazil vs USA Prediction and WBC picks for March 6, 2026.
Brazil vs USA Prediction
- My Pick: USA -9.5 (-128, FanDuel)
My Brazil vs USA best bet is on Team USA to cover the run line.
Brazil vs USA Odds, Spread, and Over/Under
| United States Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -128 | 14.5 -132 / +108 | -7000 |
| Brazil Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
9.5 +104 | 14.5 -132 / +108 | +2000 |
- Brazil vs USA Moneyline: USA -7000, Brazil +2000
- Brazil vs USA Run Line: USA -9.5
- Brazil vs USA Total: 14.5 (-132 / +108)
Brazil vs USA Picks for World Baseball Classic
Brazil Betting Preview
Team Brazil is making its first World Baseball Classic appearance since 2013, having failed to qualify for the last four tournaments.
I wouldn’t exactly call Brazil a hotbed of baseball talent. Just one player on Brazil’s roster has appeared in an MLB game: Reliever Thyago Vieira. He pitched in just 53 big league games over five seasons and played in Mexico last season.
Every WBC team played two exhibition games against MLB teams, with many big-league teams missing players for WBC purposes. Brazil lost to the Athletics, 14-4, and the Rangers beat them 13-2.
One of the few bright spots was Lucas Ramirez, the son of MLB legend Manny Ramirez. The younger Ramirez is a member of the Angels organization, and he homered off Jacob deGrom on Tuesday.
Another familiar name is Dante Bichette Jr., the son of former Rockies legend Dante Bichette, and the brother of current Met Bo Bichette. Bichette Jr was a first-round pick of the Yankees 15 years ago, but has been out of baseball for a few years.
Another player with strong bloodlines is Joseph Contreras, the son of World Series champion Jose Contreras. The 17-year-old hurler is the most talented arm on Brazil’s staff. It would make sense if they let him pitch, given that he throws 96-98 and has extremely high upside.
Brazil is the least talented team in the tournament. It’s great to see them qualify again, but they’d need a miracle to keep it close against the Americans
USA Betting Preview
The United States is the clear favorite to win the tournament.
Given the talent of the US team and how big a favorite it is to win the Classic, expect some big lines in their favor. The Americans crushed the Giants by 14 and the Rockies by 10 in their two exhibition games, so they're no strangers to blowout wins.
Taking the mound for the USA is Logan Webb, who is the third-best pitcher on the staff. That's more about the US also having Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal than anything about Webb, who is one of the top pitchers in this tournament.
Last year, Webb posted a 3.22 ERA and a 2.60 FIP, and he really altered his game in 2025. He went from a pure groundball artist to punching out a career-best 9.74 per nine innings to go along with a 52% groundball rate.
Behind Webb is a filthy bullpen.
Mason Miller and David Bednar are the best 8th- and 9th-inning duo in the WBC. Plus, since the pitch limit in pool play is 65 pitches, every pitcher will factor in. That gives the United States a real boost, as most of the relievers are high-end options. You might see a steady dose of Royals starter Michael Wacha and swingman Ryan Yarbrough in the latter stages to keep the other arms fresh.
Good luck stopping this lineup. Everyone in the lineup (if Byron Buxton starts in center field) posted a wRC+ better than 120 a season ago. NL MVP runner-up Kyle Schwarber, AL MVP Aaron Judge, and AL MVP runner-up Cal Raleigh will each hit in the top five of the order.
Roman Anthony is one name to watch. A budding star for the Red Sox, Anthony hit a homer in the Rockies exhibition and has one of the best eyes on the team.
You have to pay attention to the USA bench. Those guys will play a role — and a big one — to try to cover the game.
Will Smith, one of the best catchers in MLB, is Raleigh's backup, while Brice Turang, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Paul Goldschmidt, and Ernie Clement will play eventually. The worst hitter on the team is Goldschmidt, but he'd be the best hitter for Brazil.
How To Make My Brazil vs USA World Baseball Classic Prediction, Best Bet
You have to lay the runs with the Americans.
I don't see Brazil staying within 13 or 14 unless the United States takes its foot off the gas, but I don't see that as a factor.
It's not like some regular-season game in August where players swing away on first pitches against position players.
You may only get one chance to play in the WBC. These guys will make it count.
Pick: USA -9.5 (-128, FanDuel)
